Multiple teams have a final chance to make their claim for a College Football Playoff spot, as conference champions are decided this weekend.
We only have a few games on the slate, but there are still have a couple of college football underdogs that I like to defy the oddsmakers and pull off a win.
Here are my favorite college football picks for Conference Championship upsets.
CFB Conference Championship Week upset picks
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Alabama moneyline
Tulane moneyline
Alabama moneyline
Kirby Smart must be sick and tired of seeing the Alabama Crimson Tide in Atlanta. The Georgia Bulldogs are 0-3 in SEC Championship games against the Tide under Smart — and 3-0 against everyone else.
Granted, Nick Saban isn’t patrolling the other sideline this time. But this Alabama team has already stopped Georgia once this year. And it’s how the Tide won the game that has me backing them again.
The Bulldogs moved the ball very well on the ground, picking up almost seven yards a carry. But they converted just two of eight third-down opportunities, struggled to protect Gunner Stockton, and managed just 21 points at home.
Alabama now ranks 10th in points per quality drive, and Georgia’s offense looked very meek against a suspect Georgia Tech defense last week.
Stopping the run was a serious problem earlier in the season, but the Tide have vastly improved over the past month. And they’re still just as solid against the pass defensively.
On the other side of the ball, this Georgia defense ranks just 94th in pressure rate and 84th in yards allowed after catch. If Ty Simpson gets the time to scan the field that he got in the first meeting, he’s going to have another strong day.
Georgia couldn’t beat the Tide despite rushing for 227 yards at home. With Alabama’s improved defense and Stockton’s iffy play last week, I’ll back the Tide to once again get the better of Smart.
Tulane moneyline
Everyone is focusing on the offensive side of the ball for the North Texas Mean Green, but it’s the defense that people should be looking at.
The Mean Green have posted an EPA/rush metric this season that ranks 78th nationally, but it gets worse when you break it down game by game. Five of the last nine games against FBS opponents, they’ve posted a mark that ranked in the Bottom 20% nationally.
Over their last four games, they’ve been quite bad against the run. Which is probably why opponents have posted a run rate over expected of anywhere from 10.8% to a staggering 27.6% in that span.
The Tulane Green Wave are more apt to throw the ball, as they’ve had great success doing so. But keeping Drew Mestemaker off the field will be important, and running the ball will allow Tulane to control the tempo of this game.
That’s where they’ll rely on a rushing attack that averages 4.7 yards a carry despite not having a high rate of explosive runs. It will keep the chains moving, and limit the chances for an opportunistic North Texas defense to force turnovers.
That’s key given Tulane’s only conference defeat came in a game where they coughed it up four times.
The Mean Green offense is impressive. But it’s also munched on a whole bunch of cupcakes, facing a schedule ranked 125th according to ESPN’s FPI rankings. Tulane has played a much tougher schedule, and that experience will pay dividends here.
Tulane’s pass rush will generate enough discomfort to force Mestemaker into a few mistakes, and the Green Wave will get the upset win in front of their home fans.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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