Week 10 of the college football season is upon us, and as the calendar flips over to November, it’s crunch time for many programs with postseason aspirations.
Teams are scrambling for position in their conference standings, with most teams having just four games left to solidify their status. This weekend’s slate of games is full of tasty matchups, including one that could shape the entire College Football Playoff and determine who plays in the SEC Championship.
This week’s theme is road teams, as we’ve not only found three college football odds prime for upsets, but three road dogs who stand a great chance of going into enemy territory and coming away with a win. There’s no covering the spread this week, but rather a trio of outright underdog victories in our college football upset picks for Week 10!
College football upset picks for Week 10
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Baylor (+145) vs Oklahoma
Baylor thrives when it's able to run the football. The magic number this season has been 200 yards. The Bears are 4-0 when they’ve gained at least 200 yards on the ground, and just 1-3 when they haven’t. Freshman running back Richard Reese has run for more than 300 yards and five touchdowns in their last two games, both victories.
That record will be put to the test on Saturday against an Oklahoma defense that isn’t good against the run. It’s also not good against the pass. Come to think of it…it’s not really good at anything. Oklahoma is allowing nearly 190 yards per game on the ground, and 248 yards through the air. The Sooners rank 104th in total defense, 97th in third-down conversions allowed, and 79th in yards allowed per play.
Those are problematic numbers against a Baylor offense that can not only run quite well, but it’s also effective in the passing game. Baylor doesn’t throw a whole lot, ranked 106th in pass play percentage, but the Bears still throw for almost 250 yards per game. In their blowout win over Texas Tech a week ago, they ran for 231 yards and threw for 211.
Defensively, the Bears are playing solid football at the moment and will give Oklahoma some issues. The Bears rank 19th in interception rate, and they’re quite stout against the run. Dillon Gabriel has been inconsistent at times this season, and last week he threw for just 148 yards on 26 attempts against Iowa State’s solid pass defense. Now he faces a Baylor defense that was outstanding against Oklahoma last season, and returns many of the starters from that game. If the Bears are able to stuff Eric Gray, it will fall on Gabriel to win the game.
Oklahoma allowed more than 270 yards rushing to Texas, Kansas State, and TCU in defeats. The same will happen this weekend against Baylor. I like the Bears to carve Oklahoma apart on the ground, and do enough on defense to win outright on the road.
PICK: Baylor moneyline (+145)
Tennessee (+261) vs Georgia
It’s a question that has existed for ages: What happens when the immovable object meets the unstoppable force? Well, Saturday afternoon we will find out, when Tennessee and Georgia face off.
Georgia’s defense was the reason it won a national title a season ago, and it’s still a massive strength this year. The defense ranks third in points allowed, 12th in yards allowed per play, and seventh in yards allowed per game. The Bulldogs also rank third in red-zone scoring defense, denying their opponents points on more than one-third of their trips inside the 20 yard line.
But their secondary can be exploited, and perhaps no team outside of Ohio State has more weapons in the passing game than Tennessee. The Volunteers lead the nation with 30 plays of at least 30 yards through the air, as well as having the most passing plays of at least 40, 50, and 60 yards. Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt are terrorizing defenses, with Hyatt already sitting at 907 yards and 14 touchdowns through eight games.
As good as Georgia’s defense is, they aren’t very deep at cornerback. Kelee Ringo is a terrific corner, but he’s going to need help on Saturday. Georgia had trouble last week with bunch formations, as Florida was able to get some big gains in the passing game with players getting lost in coverage. They also lost Dan Jackson to injury last week.
The season-ending injury to starting linebacker Nolan Smith is also a massive blow to a defense that will have to keep tabs on Hooker when plays break down. Georgia has struggled all season to get to the quarterback, getting a sack just once every 26 pass plays on average. They’re also getting pressure on just one of every three pass attempts.
On the other side of the ball, no team in the SEC brings more pressure than Tennessee — and Missouri gave Georgia’s line problems with their exotic looks. Quarterback Stetson Bennett threw for 312 yards against the Tigers, but didn’t have a touchdown and was sacked twice. Georgia also turned the ball over twice in that game, which would be costly against a Tennessee defense ranked 10th in takeaways per game.
This is going to be must-watch television on Saturday, and as a Kentucky fan, it pains me to say that I feel Tennessee is not only going to cover, but the Vols will win this game outright. Their offense is just too explosive to ever be out of the game, and the loss of Smith and inability to pressure Hooker will be too much to overcome.
PICK: Tennessee moneyline (+245)
Syracuse (+165) vs Pitt
Syracuse fans are still thinking “what if” after they followed their loss at Clemson with a 17-point defeat to Notre Dame last weekend. Quarterback Garrett Shrader threw a pick-six on the first play of the game, and later injured his shoulder, missing the entire second half.
Shrader is expected to be back this week, but if not Carlos Del Rio-Wilson is a player who can throw the ball even better and gives Syracuse a bit more balance. Either way, I expect to see much more of Sean Tucker in this game. Pitt’s run defense is solid, allowing just 3.9 yards per attempt, but it’s faced one of the lowest run-to-pass in college football this season. It also gave up 474 yards of offense last week to Notre Dame.
It’s the other side of the ball where I expect Pitt to have real issues. Kedon Slovis hasn’t been the same since his injury against Tennessee, and last week, he was downright bad in Pitt’s 42-24 loss to UNC. He completed just 14 of 31 pass attempts with no touchdowns, the third straight game in which he failed to throw for a score.
Syracuse allows the 10th-fewest yards per pass and the 14th-lowest passing per game average, and it does a great job of getting to the quarterback and forcing bad throws. That’s a nightmare scenario for a Pitt quarterback struggling with accuracy and confidence. Slovis hasn’t thrown for more than 240 yards in any of his last three games, and I can’t see Pitt beating this defense without a solid performance. Take the Orange to bounce back and pick up their seventh win.
PICK: Syracuse moneyline (+165)
