Justin Wilcox’s California Golden Bears look for another win in Week 3, this time as big favorites over the San Diego State Aztecs tonight in prime time.
And while the Aztecs have claimed to have a new offensive identity for 2024, my San Diego State vs. California predictions don’t see much scoring in this matchup.
See why I’m backing an Under with my college football picks for Saturday, September 14.
San Diego State vs California prediction
My best bet
Under 48.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
After rebranding themselves as “Aztec FAST” this offseason, the San Diego State Aztecs have yet to see their new offensive identity bear fruit. The offense mustered just 179 total yards on 3.7 yards per play while gaining just seven first downs against Oregon State a week ago, getting blanked on the scoreboard.
SDSU certainly is playing fast, ranking seventh in tempo by snapping the ball 2.70 times per minute. However, it simply hasn’t been effective, as the Aztecs rank 125th in success rate.
They did manage 45 points in the opener against Texas A&M-Commerce, but that comes with a few caveats. First, they didn’t find the end zone until the second half. Secondly, that was against an FCS school that allowed 36 points to UC Davis the following week. Texas A&M-Commerce finished with a 1-9 record a year ago while allowing 32.3 ppg, hardly qualifying as stiff competition.
The Aztecs have a true freshman at quarterback in Danny O’Neil. While he likely has brighter days in front of him as Sean Lewis’ QB1 of the future, he’s averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt with more turnover-worthy passes (3) than big-time throws (1). He’s playing through a lower-body injury and was ineffective doing so against Oregon State, passing for 107 yards on 24 attempts.
The California Golden Bears defense has regressed significantly over the last few seasons but has come out with a vengeance to start 2024. The Bears’ salty defense has surrendered just 295 yards per game on 4.5 yards per play.
Cal effectively bottles up big plays, ranking 39th in explosiveness. It checks in at 13th in PFF’s defensive grade (88.7) and is tied for the national lead with eight forced turnovers. Cade Uluave is a star at linebacker, while Nohl Williams has intercepted three passes at corner.
This is a sandwich spot for Cal, who travelled to Auburn a week ago and heads to Florida State next week. Two offensive line starters have been absent from the lineup along with a starting wide receiver, so it’s difficult to envision them lighting up the scoreboard against a surprisingly stout SDSU defense (32nd in EPA per play, third in explosiveness).
San Diego State vs California same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 48.5
San Diego State +18.5
California team total Over 27.5
The sandwich spot worries me for Cal. The Bears have one of the most difficult travel schedules this sport has ever seen. Since they’re a West Coast team joining the ACC, they’ll be flying coast to coast nearly every week. Per SI, Cal will travel a combined 20,720 miles in its five road games this year, which is 83% of the circumference of the Earth (24,902 miles).
It would still be difficult to envision Cal not getting on the scoreboard a few times in this game even if it stays Under the total as I predict. SDSU operates at a quick tempo and that should mean more possessions for the Bears.
Star running back Jaydn Ott has been dinged up but quarterback Fernando Mendoza picked up the slack, throwing for 233 yards and two scores against Auburn.
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San Diego State vs California odds
San Diego State vs California live odds
San Diego State vs California opening odds
- Spread: San Diego State +18 (-110) | California -18 (-110)
- Moneyline: San Diego State +650 | California -1,000
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (-105) | Under 50.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
San Diego State vs California spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both teams are dealing with some injury concerns. Danny O’Neil injured his lower body early on in last week’s game. For Cal, starting linemen Siope Vatikani and Will McDonald have been out for Weeks 1 and 2 and are listed as doubtful. Starting receivers Tobias Merriweather and Kiyon Grayes will be out for the third straight week, while Jaydn Ott is questionable.
- Cal is just 2-4 ATS in its last six home games.
- SDSU is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.
San Diego State vs California betting trend to know
Cal has cashed the Under in six straight games. Find more college football betting trends for San Diego State vs California.
San Diego State vs California game info
| Location: | California Memorial Stadium, Berkeley, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
San Diego State vs California latest injuries
San Diego State vs California weather
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