The Sam Houston State Bearkats will need to get comfortable on the road this season, with stadium construction keeping them out of Huntsville entirely.
That makes tonight's matchup with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers feel no different from a so-called home game.
With no true home field and a likely 0-1 start, my Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky predictions and college football picks point out plenty of reasons for concern about the Bearkats’ outlook.
Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, with the game airing on CBS Sports Network.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky prediction
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Best bet: Western Kentucky -10.5 (-112)
The best power ratings or advanced math favor the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers by only eight or 8.5 points. Then why trust a spread of 10.5 points?
Because power ratings and advanced math cannot quite grasp the massive turnover on both these rosters. For one team, that is more of a concern than the other.
The Sam Houston Bearkats return zero starters on defense, for one thing. This is the peril of a decent Group of Five team undergoing a coaching change because its coach took a better job. Some players go with him, many others are raided by other schools, and overall progress is lost.
The Hilltoppers return a walloping three starters total, yet they have more continuity than most teams in Conference USA, even though much of that continuity comes from FCS-level Abilene Christian.
Western Kentucky imported Abilene’s offensive coordinator, Rick Bowie, and quarterback Maverick McIvor. Their familiarity should produce offensive results.
And given Sam Houston State head coach Phil Longo’s insistence on an up-tempo offense even when he does not have a defense that can hold up to extensive snaps, the Hilltoppers’ offensive familiarity should get many chances to capitalize.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky same-game parlay
Phil Longo does not know what brakes are. It is not that he prefers an “all gas, no brakes” offense. It is that he is outright unfamiliar with the concept of brakes. To Longo, offensive playcalling is simply “All gas.”
That may sound great if you have offensive playmakers, but it dooms a defense, part of what undid Longo’s time at Wisconsin and North Carolina this decade, not that Gene Chizik helped the Tar Heels' cause. Giving Maverick McIvor a plethora of possessions should yield only gaudy stats for McIvor.
Our deep-ball SGP: Humphrey's Hits Paydirt
With Longo’s penchant for pace, Sam Houston State receiver Qua’vez Humphreys should get a few deep looks. He caught four touchdown passes last season from quarterback Hunter Watson, averaging 19.25 yards per catch.
If Watson looks for Humphreys just once every other possession, that could be eight targets. Catch one or two of those and it seems likely Humpheys will find the end zone.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky game predictions
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky moneyline prediction
Chaos will not find the Conference USA title race just yet. Western Kentucky is +430 at FanDuel to win the conference, trailing only Liberty at +125.
Realize that the No. 3 team in the odds is Louisiana Tech at +1,100. Sam Houston State is at +1,400.
Western Kentucky is far better than Sam Houston State these days, enough so that an outright upset should be outright dismissed.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky spread prediction
If this spread surprisingly finds its way to -13, then siding with the Bearkats may make sense. Until then, trust the Hilltoppers to run up the score. Phil Longo’s possessions churn demands that many chances for each team.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky Over/Under prediction
As poor in quality as Sam Houston State may be, Phil Longo calls an aggressive enough scheme to trust the Bearkats to help the cause in clearing 61.5.
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky odds
- Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky spread: Western Kentucky -10.5
- Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky moneyline: Sam Houston +340, Western Kentucky -450
- Sam Houston vs. Western Kentucky Over/Under: 61.5
Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky betting trend to know
Western Kentucky has gone 5-1 against the spread in its first game against a Group of Five opponent each season in head coach Tyson Helton’s six years in Bowling Green. Find more college football betting trends for Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky.
How to watch Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky
| Location | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium, Bowling Green, KY |
| Date | Saturday, August 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
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