Looking to place some wagers on college football player props in Week 12?
I have you covered with five of the top plays for this weekend’s loaded slate, from Kansas State’s Jayce Brown to Alabama’s Ryan Williams.
Check out my player props and college football picks for Saturday, November 15.
College Football Week 12 Player Prop Bets
Prop bet #1: Jayce Brown Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
There are bad defenses, and then there’s whatever the Oklahoma State Cowboys trot out to the field on any given Saturday. The Pokes are surrendering 38.8 ppg and a whopping 6.5 yards per play, so the Kansas State Wildcats hope to gain yardage in chunks and score points in bunches this Saturday.
Oklahoma State has been particularly brutal in the secondary, ranking 133rd in EPA per pass and 134th in passing success rate allowed. Avery Johnson and the Wildcats’ passing attack should exploit a unit surrendering over 270 passing yards per game.
The go-to target is third-year man Jayce Brown, who leads the team in targets (63), receptions (38), and yards (630). He only needs to have an average game to hit the Over on his receiving yardage prop, and the matchup is decidedly a fantastic one.
Prop bet #2: Diore Hubbard Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
It’s been a strange season for the West Virginia Mountaineers, who are finally starting to find their groove in Year One of the second Rich Rodriguez era. One thing you can bank on with Rich Rod teams is that they’ll try to establish a potent ground attack, and a litany of injuries in the backfield has resulted in redshirt freshman Diore Hubbard taking over the reins.
In WVU’s last two games, both of which were wins, Hubbard has been the go-to skill player. He handled a whopping 29 carries for 108 yards and a score against Houston, and then rushed for 64 yards while adding 94 receiving yards against Colorado last week.
The Mountaineers operate at a fast tempo (third in snaps per minute) and prefer to keep the rock on the ground (13th in rush rate). With only one other healthy scholarship back on the roster, this equates to a monster workload for Hubbard every week.
He faces a decent Arizona State defense in Week 12, albeit one that the advanced numbers aren’t a fan of. The Sun Devils check in at 84th in EPA per rush, 90th in rushing success rate, and 84th in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Prop bet #3: Malachi Toney Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Miami Hurricanes find themselves ranked 15th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, meaning they stand a realistic chance of an at-large bid if they win out in convincing fashion. With a wonderful matchup against a putrid NC State Wolfpack defense in Week 12, the Hurricanes should be able to post some style points.
NC State surrendered 424.8 total yards per game on 6.1 yards per play. The secondary is the biggest flaw, giving up 292.4 yards per game. That’s more than any other team in the country other than SMU, so Carson Beck and company can bank on getting the passing attack going in an advantageous matchup.
Despite enrolling a year early, true freshman Malachi Toney has been the most productive wideout on Miami’s roster, leading the team in targets (68), receptions (54), and yards (644). With second-leading receiver CJ Daniels’ status in doubt after missing last week’s contest, the table is set for a big game from the precocious pass-catcher.
Prop bet #4: Lewis Bond Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
It’s been a season to forget on Chestnut Hill. That is, for everyone not named Lewis Bond.
The senior wideout has been one of the only bright spots for the 1-9 Boston College Eagles, leading the ACC in receptions (73) and ranking fourth in the conference in receiving yards (733). After handling double-digit targets in each of the last three games, Bond will likely see another sizable workload in Week 12.
Boston College is a 16.5-point underdog to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, meaning the game script calls for the Eagles to be playing from behind (per usual!). Georgia Tech has a beatable secondary (91st in EPA per pass, 97th in passing success rate allowed) that has been particularly suspect lately, allowing an average of 312.3 passing yards in its last three games.
Prop bet #5: Ryan Williams Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
As long as the Alabama Crimson Tide struggle to run the football, the onus will fall upon the passing attack to keep the season’s dreams alive. That’s not the worst thing in the world when you have Ty Simpson throwing the ball to talents like Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard.
Simpson has been one of the most effective passers in the country, completing 66.9% of his passes with 21 touchdowns and to only one interception, all while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Williams, who averages 66 receiving yards per game, will need to have an effective outing for Bama to keep its one-loss record alive against a tough Oklahoma Sooners team.
Oklahoma has a fearsome defense (third in success rate allowed), but its strength is a defensive front (first in front seven havoc) that shuts down opposing rushing attacks (third in rushing success rate allowed). Bama can’t run the ball anyway (3.5 yards per rush), so the real handicap falls upon the passing attack.
The Sooners have allowed each of their last two opponents to throw for more than 300 yards, as Mississippi (315) and Tennessee (393) both found unmitigated success. Simpson and Williams, who averages a team-high 2.56 yards per route run, are more than good enough to find some successful plays through the air.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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