New Mexico State vs Alabama Picks and Predictions: Tides Turn Against Massive Spread

The Crimson Tide face a massive 50-point spread against NMSU. One thing's for sure: the Tide will roll to the endzone often. But covering this spread might be a different story. Find out why with our New Mexico State vs. Alabama picks.

Last Updated: Nov 12, 2021 1:35 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Bryce Young Alabama Crimson Tide college football
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Seeing a spread of 50 points isn’t as uncommon as you would think in college football but seeing one between two FBS schools is a little rarer. And that’s exactly what we’ll get when the No. 2 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide hosts the New Mexico State Aggies this weekend.

The biggest question for this game's bettors will be whether Nick Saban goes full throttle against the poor, defenseless Aggies or do the Tide let off the gas late and allow the underdogs to cover this massive spread?

Find out who we like with our free college football betting picks and predictions for New Mexico State vs. Alabama on November 13.

New Mexico State vs Alabama odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Alabama opened this matchup as ridiculous 51.5-point home favorites. It is the sixth time this season there has been a favorite of 50 points or more, but it’s the first time it has happened between FBS opponents. The total hit the board at 68 and has been bet down to 67.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

New Mexico State vs Alabama picks

Picks made on 11/12/2021 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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New Mexico State vs Alabama game info

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Date: Saturday, November 13, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network

New Mexico State vs Alabama betting preview


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

New Mexico State: No key injuries.
Alabama: No key injuries.
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

New Mexico State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a road underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for New Mexico State vs. Alabama.

New Mexico State vs Alabama predictions

There is no doubt that Alabama has the ability to cover this massive spread. The Tide are the No. 2-ranked team according to the College Football Playoff committee. Alabama ranks 14th in total offense behind Heisman hopeful quarterback Bryce Young and running back Brian Robinson, while the defense ranks 14th in yards allowed per game.

Meanwhile, New Mexico State is 1-8 this season, with its lone win coming against FCS South Carolina State. The Aggies rank 86th in total offense and 120th in total defense. They even played a couple of spring games this year and lost to Tarleton State.

All that said, 51.5 is a ton of points. Alabama is just 2-2 ATS when laying 40 or more points over the last three seasons, and while everything on the surface looks like a dumpster fire for New Mexico State, the team is actually 6-3 ATS this season. 

On top of that, the one thing the Aggies can do, at least a little well, is throw the football. NMSU QB Jonah Johnson is completing 60.4 percent of his passes and averaging 306.2 yards per game over his last five starts. And the one place Alabama can be vulnerable sometimes is through the air.

Yes, it feels like grasping at straws. Can Alabama win this game 63-0? Absolutely. But Bama has been inconsistent this season and it’s hard to back them at this massive number.

Alabama’s inconsistencies this season are what make me pause when debating whether or not to back them at a number this high. But one thing's for certain: the Crimson Tide will put up points in this game.

For starters, Bama is the fourth highest-scoring team in the country at 43 points per game. And while they don’t always cover spreads this huge, they tend to put up a ton of points when they are big favorites. 

Alabama has been favored by 40 points or more six times over the last four seasons and it has averaged 57.5 points in those games, with the Over going 6-0 in those contests. It feels like the Aggies will just need 10 points or so for Alabama to make the Over 7-0 in such situations. 

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our New Mexico State vs. Alabama picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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