The Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones can’t seem to meet without a dose of chaos and comedy.
College football often feels like a dive bar—long lines, grimy bathrooms, and loud regulars—but it’s matchups like this that make it all worth it.
In my Iowa vs. Iowa State predictions and college football picks, I’m backing a short home favorite with the clearly better roster—while choosing to overlook the rivalry’s usual antics. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 6.
Iowa vs Iowa State prediction
Iowa vs Iowa State best bet: Iowa State moneyline (-152)
This is a risk. Since Matt Campbell took over at Iowa State, the Cyclones have gone just 2-6 outright in this series, though 4-4 against the spread.
The underdog has won outright in three of the last four games, and the underdog has covered the spread in five of the previous seven.
Then again, the Cyclones have gone 2-1 outright in the last three years, as well as 2-1 against the spread.
My Iowa vs. Iowa State prediction?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 3, 2025
"Death, taxes, Deion Sanders mismanaging timeouts to end a game and ..." https://t.co/kmy49cZ8Zf pic.twitter.com/YEGETOkXvl
The risk is why this coward is taking the moneyline instead of Iowa State -2.5, juiced to a reasonable -122 at FanDuel. While plenty of books have this at -3 or even -3.5, the availability of a -2.5 at such modest juice stands out even more in what will inevitably be a low-scoring game — likely settled by one score.
If that is so reasonable, then why take the -152 moneyline? How many times do I need to call myself a coward?
First of all, Iowa State won this matchup by exactly one point last year. Secondly, the Iowa Hawkeyes went just 1-3 in one-score games, while the Cyclones went 5-1 in such instances, including a one-point win in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
When facing Kirk Ferentz, scores can get wonky. The longtime coach treats conventional football scores like I treat pineapple pizzas at a pizza buffet, ignoring them for far more unorthodox possibilities.
The moneyline protects against some of those absurdities, things like your punter being your best player or peanut butter & jelly pizza.
Iowa vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Some people may cringe at including an Iowa team total Under in a same-game parlay, but this is why people bet on Iowa.
This is the rare moment where the Under is the popular decision, and not only because it is profitable. Not enough credit is given to the Iowa State defense, and combining it with a close-game artist like veteran quarterback Rocco Becht should secure a win in this comical rivalry.
Iowa vs Iowa State same-game parlay
- Iowa State moneyline
- Rocco Becht to score a touchdown
- Iowa team total Under 19.5 points
Our deep-ball SGP: Rocco's modern life
In his four-year career at South Dakota State, Mark Gronwoski averaged 8.7 yards per pass attempt, averaging at least eight yards per attempt in each separate season.
Starting his FBS career with just 2.9 yards per attempt last week against FCS-level Albany has all the looks of the Hawkeyes hiding something about their offense.
By no means will Iowa unveil a fully functional offense as long as Kirk Ferentz remains in Iowa City, but it may have a somewhat notable passing game hidden behind Gronowski, and this is the moment to try it.
Iowa vs Iowa State same-game parlay
- Iowa State moneyline
- Rocco Becht to score a touchdown
- Iowa team total Under 19.5 points
- Mark Gronowski Over 136.5 passing yards
Iowa vs Iowa State game predictions
Iowa vs Iowa State moneyline prediction
A devil’s advocate would ponder reasons to pick Iowa as an underdog. Its defense certainly still warrants respect, ranked No. 10 in the most recent SP+ ratings from ESPN.com. However, it must be acknowledged that bringing in Gronowski did not resolve all of the Hawkeyes’ offensive problems.
To a very real degree, Iowa State may increasingly be the worst team for Iowa to play. The Hawkeyes play others on an annual basis — Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nebraska — but two of those dates vary; those opponents cannot spend undue time prepping for Iowa’s suffocating defense. Iowa State can.
Every summer, the Cyclones know this awaits them in Week 2. There may be a reason Matt Campbell has gradually improved in this rivalry, peaking thus far with two wins in the last three meetings.
Iowa vs Iowa State spread prediction
As long as the spread is below a field goal, a bet on Iowa State can be justified. The moment it reaches -3.5, the nature of this rivalry turns that into a questionable choice.
If these two teams did not know each other and there were no logos, a spread close to a touchdown would be logical. But the familiarity is too distinct here.
Iowa vs Iowa State Over/Under prediction
Iowa’s defense may be as predictable as death, taxes, and Deion Sanders' mishandling of timeouts late in a game, but Iowa State’s defense warrants praise. That is the unit that should doom this game Under any total north of 41.
Iowa vs Iowa State odds
- Spread: Iowa +2.5 | Iowa State -2.5
- Moneyline: Iowa +152 | Iowa State -184
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5
Iowa vs Iowa State trend to know
Iowa State has gone 3-0 against the spread in its last three games. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa vs Iowa State.
How to watch Iowa vs Iowa State
| Location | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date | Saturday, September 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Iowa vs Iowa State latest injuries
Iowa vs Iowa State weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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