Indiana vs Ohio State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buckeyes' Offense Gets Back in Business

Ohio State scored just 21 points against Northwestern last weekend but a date with Indiana's dreadful defense may be just what the doctor ordered to get back on track. Expect the Buckeyes to score in bunches and go Over their 48.5-point team total.

Chris Gregory - Publishing Editor at
Chris Gregory • Publishing Editor
Nov 12, 2022 • 08:06 ET • 4 min read
C.J. Stroud Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten college football
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Despite its shiny 9-0 record and position atop the Big Ten odds board, Ohio State should be playing with a bit of a chip on its shoulder when it hosts the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 11.

The Buckeyes were held to just 283 total yards of offense in a messy game at Northwestern last Saturday and were actually tied at halftime as a 37.5-point road favorite before winning 21-7. 

With the Michigan matchup looming, there's some pressure on the Buckeyes to play better and my college football picks and predicitons expect them to do just that in this softball matchup. 

Indiana vs Ohio State best odds

Indiana vs Ohio State picks and predictions

Despite scoring just 21 points in the elements against Northwestern last week, the Ohio State Buckeyes still have the best offense in the nation. 

Still ranked No. 1 in both scoring offense (45.8) and yards per play (7.3), the Buckeyes now return home for a matchup with Indiana, losers of six straight. And while I'm looking away from the absurd 41-point spread, I do think this is the perfect bounce-back spot for the offense. 

The offensive line hasn't been at its best in recent weeks and the run game has suffered as a result, but this Indiana Hoosiers defense is tres bad allowing 33.5 points and 433.9 yards per game — and will get picked apart by C.J. Stroud and his laundry list of offensive weapons.

It's also a perfect storm when considering the Buckeyes' need to get right after a dull performance. The Week 13 matchup with Michigan is fast approaching and OSU needs to get back to playing its best ball — that starts this weekend. 

The Buckeyes' team total is currently listed at 48.5, a number they've gone Over in five of their last seven games (21 points last week, 44 against Penn State), as well as in four of their last five matchups with Indiana dating back to 2017, averaging exactly 49 ppg over those five contests. 

The Hoosiers have allowed opponents to get into the 40s three times this season: Penn State (45), Cinncinnati (45), and Purdue (44). The Buckeyes not only have by far the best of those four quarterbacks, but have a much deeper selection of offensive weapons to lean on, making the half-century mark that much easier to reach. 

Were the Buckeyes underwhelming last week? Yes. Do I expect that to become a trend? Absolutely not — they'll get back on track this week.

My best bet: Ohio State team total Over 48.5 (-113 at FanDuel)

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Indiana vs Ohio State spread analysis

This daunting 41-point spread will be the biggest for Ohio State during conference play and the second biggest of its season (-44.5 vs. Arkansas State). 

Dealing with massive spreads week after week, the Buckeyes are 4-4-1 ATS on the season but haven't covered since Week 8 against Iowa. Indiana is just 3-6 ATS with its last cover coming in Week 7. 

My first instinct tells me that 41 points is too many for a conference game, but nothing about the Hoosiers' profile makes me believe they can either score enough points to make this cover unattainable for OSU or stop the Buckeyes from scoring every single time they touch the ball.

Furthermore, Indiana's offense is just as bad as its defense, ranking out 128th of 131 FBS teams in yards per play (4.0), 114th in total offense (315.6 ypg), and 97th in scoring offense (21.9 ppg).

The Buckeyes' defense — despite being in the shadows of the offense — has quietly become one of the best in the nation, ranking seventh or better in scoring defense, total defense, and yards per play. 

Indiana vs Ohio State Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 58 points and has since ticked down to 57.5 at the time of writing. OSU is 6-3 to the Over this season and had actually gone Over in six straight contests before the Northwestern game last week. 

Despite its bad offense, Indiana is 5-4 to the Over thanks in large part to its horrible defense detailed above. Indiana is averaging just 18.5 ppg over its last four games while scoring just 14 and 17 in somewhat comparable matchups with Penn State and Michigan, respectively. 

Considering the Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings (average of 68.8 points) and how quickly the Buckeyes can strike, I'd lean towards the Over — praying Indiana can find a way to crack double digits. If not, it will all fall on C.J. Stroud & Co.

Indiana vs Ohio State betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Ohio State.

Indiana vs Ohio State game info

Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
Date: Saturday, November 12, 2022
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET

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