The Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl features the 6-6 Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns of the Sun Belt Conference meeting the 7-5 Houston Cougars of the American Athletic Conference.
This should be an entertaining matchup between the defensive-minded Ragin' Cajuns and the high-scoring Cougars.
Who will be crowned Independence Bowl champion? Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Louisiana vs. Houston on Friday, December 23.
Houston vs Louisiana best odds
Houston vs Louisiana picks and predictions
The Ragin Cajuns aren’t the biggest scoring offense in the college game, and they took a hit when junior quarterback Ben Wooldridge suffered a season-ending injury on November 11 vs. Georgia State. Sophomore QB Chandler Fields has filled in admirably, slinging it for 954 yards with 10 TDs and four interceptions — and the Cajuns have scored 58 points over their last two games.
Fields has a big-play wide receiver in senior Michael Jefferson, who has snared a TD pass in two of his last three and has 810 receiving yards with seven TD receptions this season. Junior running back Chris Smith handles most of the rushing chores for an offense scoring 27 points per game.
The Cougars' defense isn’t very good. They allow 33.5 points per contest and have given up 180 points over their last five, including 77 points to SMU. They were ninth in the AAC in passing yards allowed and fifth in passing yards while allowing the ninth most points per game in conference play.
The Cougars go how senior QB Clayton Tune goes, and he’s slung it for 3,845 yards with 37 TDs alongside 10 picks. He’s the Houston rushing leader and leads the team with five rushing TDs. Junior wideout Nathaniel Dell has 1,354 receiving yards with 15 TDs.
Louisiana is a good defensive football team, sitting fifth in the Sun Belt Conference in passing yards, and ninth in rushing yards for a side.
Houston has shootout capability anytime Tune and the Cougars take the field. Putting up big numbers is how Houston wins games and in what will be their final collegiate game, look for Tune and Dell to put on a show.
Tune can beat the Ragin Cajun defense with his feet and his arm, and I expect him to punish Louisiana. He’ll have to because the Cougars' defense hasn’t stopped anyone all year, and they aren’t stopping the Ragin Cajuns. Fields has filled in nicely, the offense racked up 41 points in their regular season final, and they will score with the Cougars and send this game Over the total that sits at 58.
My best bet: Over 58 (-110 at Caesars)
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Houston vs Louisiana spread analysis
Louisiana is a 7-point underdog, and I’m leaning toward the Rajun Cajuns covering the spread.
They were 7-5 ATS this season, but they have competed well. Three of their six losses were in one-score games, and with some luck, they'll end their season 9-3 and win the Sun Belt Conference.
ULL frosh RB Dre’Lyn Washington is starting to carve some playing time for himself and gives the Ragin Cajuns another strong rusher. Washington scampered for 73 yards and a TD against Texas State, and I expect him to gash Houston.
The Cougars are 4-8 ATS, and as high flying as the Houston offense is, the defense leaks like a sieve. Louisiana plays good defense, and it won’t be easy to outscore a team that has surrendered 102 points over its past four games.
Houston will have difficulty covering the spread, often getting itself into shootouts and sometimes overtime due to its poor defense. The Cougars should win this game, but they won’t cover Friday's spread.
Houston vs Louisiana Over/Under analysis
I like the Over as my best bet, but here are some additional notes.
The Over is 10-2 in the Cougars' 12 games with them allowing four red zone scores per game, and outside of a 49-3 victory over East Carolina, their defense gives us no reason to trust them.
The Over is 6-6 for ULL this season — playing terrific defense at times — but the Cougars' offense is the best they’ve faced thus far. Houston is a big-scoring team, putting up at least 30 points per game in each of its past seven.
The Rajin Cajuns have a kicker who can hammer the football. Sophomore Kenneth Almendares has made 15 of his 20 attempts, including a season-best 52-yard bomb. He’s 3-for-3 from 50+ yards and could score nine points by himself.
Houston vs Louisiana betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Cougars' last four non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Louisiana.
Houston vs Louisiana game info
| Location: | Independence Stadium, Shreveport, LA |
| Date: | Friday, December 23, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Houston vs Louisiana weather
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