This is the scenario the ACC’s marquee programs have long feared — that the league’s own mediocrity could end up shutting it out of the College Football Playoff. Then again, that wouldn’t be much of a concern if those same brand-name teams hadn’t collectively gone 12–12 in conference play.
If Duke pulls off an upset against Virginia, the ACC can likely kiss its Playoff hopes goodbye.
But my Duke vs. Virginia predictions and college football picks expect the conference to avoid its worst-case outcome.
Duke vs Virginia predictions for the ACC Championship
Who will win the ACC Championship?
This is one of six rematches this weekend and one of the three where the initial victor is again favored.
There may be some instinct to doubt Virginia to beat Duke twice, simply because that is anecdotally difficult, but the reality is one of these teams fell backward into this spot, while the other stepped up when the moments mattered most.
The Cavaliers’ walloping of the Blue Devils in mid-November was, at the time, a must-win, and then Virginia had even greater stakes against rival Virginia Tech in the regular-season finale.
Easily covering the spread in those speaks to the Cavaliers’ strong close to the season, a strong close that should be granted continued faith this weekend.
Duke vs Virginia best bet: Virginia -3.5 (-120)
Virginia did just beat Duke a few weeks ago. The Cavaliers won, 34-17, despite giving up an interception return for a touchdown. By advanced measures, Virginia had a 100% postgame win expectancy, more genuinely winning by 27 points than those 17 points in reality.
That is what comes when you outgain your opponent, 540 yards to 255, and average 7.0 yards per play to their 4.4.
Duke was plus-one in turnover margin and committed four fewer penalties. The margins agreed with the Blue Devils, and the day still could not have gone much worse.
Those margins rarely agreed with Duke in notable games this season, its own mistakes creating the losses to Illinois, Tulane, Georgia Tech and even UConn.
The Blue Devils lost the turnover margin in three of those four games — breaking even against Tulane — by a combined -9. They committed at least six penalties in each of those losses.
Duke’s five outright losses were also its only losses against the spread against FBS competition. Four of them were far more the Blue Devils’ own doing. Only Virginia genuinely dominated Duke.
If the Blue Devils revert to their usual form in a tight game, the Cavaliers should cruise with ease. Even when Duke played well, Virginia had no trouble.
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Duke vs Virginia same-game parlay
Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns in his matchup with Duke a few weeks ago, not terribly surprising given the Blue Devils' pass defense has been an outright liability in eight of 11 games this season, particularly woeful in the season's second half. No wonder nine of Duke's 12 games have hit their Overs.
Duke vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia -3.5
- Over 57.5
- Chandler Morris Over 229.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Morris rises to the occasion
While Chandler Morris has rushed for only one touchdown in the last seven games, tight games with Playoff stakes are the exact moments to expect more rushing from quarterbacks in short-yardage situations.
Adding a hat in the rushing game creates too much of an advantage to not be used in these moments, no matter the wear on the passers.
Duke vs Virginia SGP
- Virginia -3.5
- Over 57.5
- Chandler Morris Over 229.5 passing yards
- Chandler Morris touchdown
Duke vs Virginia game predictions
Duke vs Virginia spread prediction
The strongest unit in this game is Virginia’s defense, even though the Cavaliers’ offense tends to get more praise. The weakest unit is, surprisingly, Duke’s defense, despite Manny Diaz’s reputation.
The Blue Devils’ defensive struggles remove any margin of error for their offense. Every wasted possession or turnover puts the game in danger for Duke, and the Cavaliers’ balanced offense should exploit that.
As long as this spread is within four points, bet Virginia without hesitation.
Duke vs Virginia Over/Under prediction
Given its offense’s habit of crushing turnovers, one might think Duke should shorten this game via its rushing attack. But the Blue Devils hardly have a rushing attack, ranking No. 60 in expected points added (EPA) per rush, per CFB-graphs.com, and No. 61 in rushing success rate.
Duke’s best hope will be to shockingly play error-free ball in a relative shootout.
Duke vs Virginia odds
- Spread: Duke +3.5 | Virginia -3.5
- Moneyline: Duke +158 | Virginia -188
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 | Under 57.5
Duke vs Virginia trend to know
Virginia is 5-2 against the spread in games with a spread within one score this season. Find more college football betting trends for Duke vs Virginia.
How to watch Duke vs Virginia
| Location | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date | Saturday, December 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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