The first College Football Playoff rankings from the selection committee a week ago informed more of our understanding of the Playoff picture than any games over the weekend did.
The games over the weekend did doom the ACC to the No. 11 seed in the Playoff, if even that, and they likely knocked BYU out of this conversation, though the Cougars have a direct route back into the Playoff picture via a win in the penultimate week of the season at Cincinnati.
Until such a road win, let’s leave BYU out of this projected College Football Playoff bracket …
College Football Playoff bracket prediction
- 5) Georgia vs. 12) South Florida
- 8) Oregon vs. 9) Notre Dame
- 6) Texas Tech vs. 11) Georgia Tech
- 7) Mississippi vs. 10) Vanderbilt
- BYES: 1) Ohio State, 2) Alabama, 3) Texas A&M, 4) Indiana
CFP Bracket analysis
You can no longer bet on “Yes” for Texas A&M or Indiana to make the College Football Playoff at FanDuel, though the “No” remains on the board at +5000 for each. Only Ohio State is priced as more likely to make the Playoff, given the Buckeyes are not on the board at all.
That is a reflection of both their performances so far and their remaining schedules.
Texas Tech and Alabama are priced relatively as heavily, each at +680 to miss the Playoff, an acknowledgement that either could still lose once or twice, respectively — one loss against Central Florida or West Virginia could be enough to doom Texas Tech; Alabama sitll with vs. Oklahoma this weekend and at Auburn to end the season — and a 10-2 or a 9-3 record could leave either on the outside looking in. But those five are effectively rubber-stamped into the Playoff field at this point.
The first set of committee rankings shed some light on the next tier of this bracket. Until one loses, Georgia, Mississippi, and Oregon should all be comfortably ahead of Notre Dame, and the Ducks’ close call at Iowa affirmed that specific ordering. Looking at their remaining schedules, Irish fans may best hope that Texas upsets Georgia this weekend but does not then leapfrog Notre Dame in the standings as a result.
Otherwise, the most likely loss awaiting one of those three may be an Egg Bowl laugh at Mississippi State, one of three distinct possibilities that would not risk the Irish being jumped by the victorious underdog.
Rivalry weekend could reward Notre Dame fans, as well, and I don't just mean beating up on Stanford.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 10, 2025
Plus, obviously, Texas at Georgia this weekend. Then again, @drmataya probably thinks that would jump the Longhorns ahead of the Irish (and it just might). pic.twitter.com/jpECWGCDkX
But given that Georgia, Mississippi, and Oregon will be favored in each of those pondered games, these projections are not bold enough to predict which specific upset will push Notre Dame into a home game for the first round of the Playoff, only thorough enough to acknowledge that it is arguably more likely than not.
Behind the Irish, the absurdity begins. That final at-large spot could come down to Vanderbilt and Utah, with both Texas and Oklahoma expected to lose again yet this season. The Utes were three spots ahead of the Commodores in the initial committee rankings, but the ACC’s incompetence has already removed that optical gap. One must then wonder if Vanderbilt beating Tennessee to close the season would jump them past Utah, adding just Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas to its résumé between now and then.
Huh, looks like Vandy's advanced numbers against Auburn bettered Vandy's outlook in the final weekend of the season and thus bettered Vandy's Playoff odds ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 10, 2025
(Numbers via @statsowar / CFB-graphs . com) https://t.co/mSUfzNIKOW pic.twitter.com/oX5HwCIx8m
A road win against a top-25 SEC opponent almost certainly serves as enough justification for the selection committee to slide in another SEC team rather than a second Big 12 entrant.
The final two automatic spots are the result of current messes. To keep this somewhat simple …
If Georgia Tech beats Pittsburgh in a couple of weeks, the Yellow Jackets should be in the ACC championship game, likely playing the winner of this weekend’s Virginia vs. Duke tilt. Georgia Tech probably loses to Georgia between those two dates, but it would not matter; the 11-2 Yellow Jackets would earn a Playoff spot as the ACC champion.
The American is actually more of a mess. If South Florida wins at Navy this weekend, then we should be headed toward a South Florida vs. North Texas conference championship, with the Bulls the favorites in that matchup.
So if none of the American teams are ranked by the CFP -- or if only one is -- then those advanced metrics rankings would determine the title matchup.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 10, 2025
And that could give us this Playoff play-in game.
(Numbers via @statsowar / CFB-graphs . com) https://t.co/I3m2NMjrHb pic.twitter.com/7Mlps4mitb
Latest odds to make the College Football Playoff
| Team | Conference |  |
|---|---|---|
 Mississippi Rebels |
SEC | -3500 |
 Georgia Bulldogs |
SEC | -2200 |
 Alabama Crimson Tide |
SEC | -1200 |
 Texas Tech Red Raiders |
Big 12 | -1200 |
 Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
IND. | -375 |
 Oregon Ducks |
Big Ten | -310 |
 South Florida Bulls |
AAC | +136 |
 Texas Longhorns |
SEC | +186 |
 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |
ACC | +210 |
 North Texas Mean Green |
AAC | +210 |
 Oklahoma Sooners |
SEC | +225 |
 James Madison Dukes |
Sun Belt | +225 |
 Vanderbilt Commodores |
SEC | +270 |
 BYU Cougars |
Big 12 | +290 |
 Utah Utes |
Big 12 | +310 |
Important dates for the College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Matchup(s) |
|---|---|---|
| First round | December 19-20 | No. 12 at No. 5 No. 9 at No. 8 No. 11 at No. 6 No. 10 at No. 7 |
| Quarterfinals | December 31-January 1 | No. 4 vs. winner of No. 12 vs. No. 5 No. 1 vs. winner of No. 9 vs. No. 8 No. 3 vs winner of No. 11 vs. No. 6 No. 2 vs winner of No. 10 vs No. 7 |
| Semifinal 1 | January 8 | Fiesta Bowl |
| Semifinal 2 | January 9 | Peach Bowl |
| Championship | January 19 | CFP National Championship Game |
