Week 6 brings a loaded slate of ranked matchups, and our college football touchdown picks focus on players who are a mix of the best value and facing the best matchup.
Florida wide receiver Vernell Brown is my favorite play, while the Ohio Stat, Ole Miss, UCLA and Texas games provide additional value.
Find more Week 6 analysis with our latest college football picks.
Best Week 6 college football anytime touchdown picks
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Vernell Brown |
|
 Brandon Inniss |
|
 Caleb Odom |
|
 Anthony Woods |
|
 Cam Coleman |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Vernell Brown anytime touchdown
The Florida Gators generate 0.44 EPA per dropback and rank second nationally in offensive EPA per play. This is a true bounce-back spot after being thrashed by the Missouri Tigers and facing an opponent that could be on the verge of letting go of the rope of their season.
The South Carolina Gamecocks defense has allowed 0.30 EPA per pass, 118th nationally, with a 47% pass-defense success rate that ranks 98th. Vernell Brown has turned 14 catches on 16 targets into 293 yards, 18.31 yards per target, and a 62% success rate. That is not empty volume.
In fact, he's turned into one of the more reliable options for Florida and seems to be improving each time he hits the field. In addition, he is producing high-value touches in the same area where South Carolina is weakest. Florida’s passing efficiency gives Brown multiple paths to a score, from a red-zone isolation to a broken coverage.
Play to 51%.
- Matchup: Florida vs. Missouri
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 12:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Florida
- TV: ESPN
Pick #2: Brandon Inniss anytime touchdown
ProphetX probability: 38%
The Ohio State Buckeyes rank fifth nationally in overall EPA per play and second in passing success rate. The Maryland Terrapins pass defense ranks 75th, leaving Bucky plenty of room to attack after a more patient win over Iowa. Brandon Inniss has caught 10 of 12 targets for 147 yards and owns an 83% receiving success rate.
Jeremiah Smith will command the most attention, but that is part of the appeal. Inniss is efficient enough to punish Maryland when coverage tilts toward Ohio State’s top receiver. With Maryland already struggling to keep pace offensively, Ohio State should have enough possessions to find its secondary weapons near the goal line.
Play to 38%.
- Matchup: Maryland vs. Ohio State
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 4:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
- TV: Fox Sports
Pick #3: Caleb Odom anytime touchdown
The Ole Miss Rebels are coming off a difficult loss at Florida, allowing 52 points after opening the season with serious playoff expectations.
This is the kind of spot where the offense needs to respond quickly, and the Vanderbilt Commodores provide a manageable matchup. Ole Miss ranks 11th nationally in offensive EPA per play and ninth in offensive success rate, while Vanderbilt’s pass defense ranks 73rd.
Caleb Odom has 13 catches for 201 yards and a 66.7% receiving success rate. His production gives Ole Miss a reliable answer when Vanderbilt forces the Rebels away from their first read.
After last week’s disappointment, Odom is positioned to help Ole Miss regain its offensive rhythm. Play to 37%.
- Matchup: Vanderbilt vs. Ole Miss
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: First Bank Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
- TV: ESPN
Pick #4: Anthony Woods anytime touchdown
The UCLA Bruins enter Eugene, perhaps surprisingly, unbeaten and now have a chance to make a statement against the Oregon Ducks.
UCLA ranks third nationally in overall EPA per play, first in EPA per rush and second in rushing success rate. Oregon’s rush defense has not simply not been good this season, giving the Bruins a clear way to stay aggressive on the road.
Anthony Woods has 36 carries for 278 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 7.72 yards per carry. His 53% rushing success rate shows that his production is not dependent on one broken play.
In a game with real stakes for UCLA, Woods gives the Bruins a physical answer and a strong option near the goal line.
- Matchup: UCLA vs. Oregon
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
- TV: CBS
Pick #5: Cam Coleman anytime touchdown
The Texas Longhorns enter Red River unbeaten and a legitimate title contender while the Oklahoma Sooners are 2-2 and badly need a result to keep their season from drifting. Oklahoma’s defense ranks first nationally overall and second against the pass, so Texas may not sustain many long drives. That makes its most explosive receiver especially important.
Cam Coleman has 11 catches for 194 yards, averaging 16.96 yards per reception. Texas may need one decisive play to break open a tense rivalry game, and Coleman is the player most capable of providing it. His downfield production gives him a direct path to a touchdown even in a difficult matchup.
If we get any type of script where the Longhorns need to push the ball down the field with urgency, this number is simply too long. I'd play to 42%.
- Matchup: Texas vs. Oklahoma
- Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 10 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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