Two high-profile coaches will be looking to reverse their disastrous starts as the Clemson Tigers and North Carolina Tar Heels square off in an ACC matchup Saturday afternoon.
What was once billed as a marquee coaching showdown has become little more than an afterthought on this weekend’s schedule. Still, my Clemson vs. North Carolina predictions suggest that a loss could turn up the heat on either Dabo Swinney or Bill Belichick.
Find out why I think the Tar Heels' offense will struggle in my college football picks for October 4.
Clemson vs North Carolina prediction
Clemson vs North Carolina best bet: North Carolina team total Under 16.5 points (-120)
The North Carolina Tar Heels offense is putrid.
The Tar Heels rank among the worst teams in college football in pretty much every metric. They scored 41 points against Richmond, which is also the total points they’ve scored against their three FBS opponents.
They’ve got a quality drive rate of just 30% on the year, and what few of those they put together are leading to less than a field goal each on average. Two of Gio Lopez’s three touchdown passes this year came against the Spiders. And in his last outing against UCF, he didn’t top 100 yards while throwing two interceptions.
Then again, it’s hard for him to achieve much when he keeps getting hurt. And while Max Johnson’s thrown two touchdowns and looked better when he’s come in as relief, it’s hard to do much behind an offensive line that will be overwhelmed by the strong Clemson Tigers pass rush.
Only one team in college football has picked up fewer first downs than the Tar Heels. And while Clemson’s secondary has been exposed at times this season, the Tigers have performed solidly against the run. They rank 38th in rush success rate and 45th in EPA/rush.
And while allowing a high rate of quality drives, the Tigers are holding opponents to just 2.74 points per quality drive. It also helps that they rank in the Top 20 in explosive run rate against.
North Carolina’s inability to run the football will set the Clemson pass rush free. The Tar Heels, as they’ve done in every game against a team with a pulse this season, will be behind the chains early and often, and will struggle to put together enough positive plays to build drives.
No, Clemson’s defense isn’t perfect. But the Tar Heels couldn’t score more than 14 against a TCU defense that allowed 21 points to Abilene Christian. They scored fewer points against UCF than Jacksonville State. They aren’t scoring 17+ against the Tigers.
Clemson vs North Carolina same-game parlay
North Carolina’s run defense metrics aren’t terrible, but TCU found success on the ground. Clemson’s line averages 3.2 yards per rush attempt, and Adam Randall is averaging better than six yards a carry after a slow start against LSU.
Randall has rushed for 80+ yards each of his last three games and had 130 yards on 16 carries against Syracuse. North Carolina’s defense ranks 91st in early down EPA and 87th in adjusted rush rate success, and Randall will flirt with the century mark.
Bryan Wesco Jr. has been the go-to receiver for Cade Klubnik this year, and he’s caught all but one of Clemson’s six passing scores. The Tar Heels have only allowed three passing touchdowns this season, but Wesco will push his touchdown streak to four games with another big play.
Clemson vs North Carolina 3-leg SGP
- North Carolina team total Under 16.5 points
- Adam Randall Over 87.5 rushing yards
- Bryan Wesco Jr anytime TD
Our deep-ball SGP: Keeping the lid on Clemson
The Tigers are 99th in quality drive rate. They’ll find success at points against this struggling Tar Heel pass defense, but I don’t trust Klubnik to suddenly turn into a scoring machine.
Clemson vs North Carolina 4-leg SGP
- North Carolina team total Under 16.5 points
- Adam Randall Over 87.5 rushing yards
- Bryan Wesco Jr anytime TD
- Under 46.5
Clemson vs North Carolina game predictions
Clemson vs North Carolina moneyline prediction
If Clemson loses this game, it would be a monumental upset. North Carolina has looked hopeless against both Power 4 schools it’s faced, and Clemson has had a week off to figure things out.
Clemson vs North Carolina spread prediction
I like Clemson to cover here. North Carolina’s offense is just inept at the moment, and while Clemson’s not impressed anybody, the talent gap here is still fairly wide. The defense will do its job and the offense will put up enough points to win by more than two touchdowns.
Clemson vs North Carolina Over/Under prediction
I’m on the Under here. I nearly gave it out as a best bet, but you have a North Carolina offensive incapable of scoring points and a Clemson offense that has been consistently inconsistent.
Clemson vs North Carolina odds
- Spread: Clemson -14.5 | North Carolina +14.5
- Moneyline: Clemson -720 | North Carolina +520
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Clemson vs North Carolina trend to know
North Carolina has hit the Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Clemson vs North Carolina.
How to watch Clemson vs North Carolina
| Location | Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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