Bowling Green vs Ohio Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rourke Injury Leans Toward the Under

It’s the final MACtion week of the season when Ohio looks to wrap up an appearance in the MAC Championship game with a win over Bowling Green.

A win will secure a division title for the Bobcats as they look to cap their regular season with nine wins. However, their biggest question mark entering is the availability of starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke after leaving last week’s game against Ball State with a knee injury.

Bowling Green has been hot, winning three of their last four, and comes into this one after an insane comeback win against Toledo. A win by the Falcons here would set up a wild tiebreaker scenario with seemingly limitless possibilities.

Will Ohio close the deal and secure a spot in the MAC Championship? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Ohio vs. Bowling Green.

Bowling Green vs Ohio best odds

Bowling Green vs Ohio picks and predictions

The story of this game is squarely centered around if Rourke will see the field. Because of some well-sourced information and eyes that saw the injury occur, I’m going to roll the dice and say he doesn’t. With that in mind, the easy decision becomes the Under for our best bet.

When Rourke left last week's game, Ohio immediately went to some conservative playcalling. Sure, things like the weather, time, and score played a part, but attempting only eight passes in one half is still relatively uncommon for the Bobcats. With CJ Harris under center, Ohio started the second half with three straight punts, managing only three completions in the process. 

Bowling Green started this season slowly, but its defense has improved as the season continues. Three of its last four games have seen opposing quarterbacks held under 250 passing yards, with two of those below 200. At times, the Falcons have also been ballhawks, coming into this matchup with the conference's second-most interceptions.

Harris has made 12 passes in his college career and is coming off an injury. Whether it’s rust or simply inexperience, you have to think he’d be a likely candidate to be prone to turnovers if he tries his luck in the air.

Even if Rourke ends up being a surprise start, the Under is the right side. While Bowling Green’s passing defense has improved, its rushing defense has mostly stayed the same. It ranks ninth in the MAC in rushing yards allowed per carry. It boasts an anemic stuff rate of 14%, making you think that if Ohio gets any comfortable lead, it'll have success burning the clock on the ground. What has been fundamental to Ohio’s success this season is an average of 3.4 line yards per game. It should be able to push this Bowling Green line, which will provide a significant advantage in running the ball.

On the other side of the ball, I won’t pretend that Ohio’s defense has been much of a world-beater, but much like its opponent, it has improved considerably. It's getting an offense that isn’t overly prolific and doesn’t make many explosive plays that will lead to quick scores. The Eagles have just eight plays on the season of over 40 or more. You’re asking the Ohio defense to hold serve, and I feel comfortable saying they can do that.

My best bet: Under 54.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Bowling Green vs Ohio spread analysis

I strongly lean toward Ohio, but this isn’t a spread I want to bet on pre-game with the uncertainties surrounding Rourke making this enough to stay away from. In a vacuum, I believe Ohio is a better team and should win this game, but I expect much better opportunities to bet on this game once it's live.

The spread opened up at Ohio -6.5. Since then, we’ve seen some minimal movement, but Ohio has bumped to a flat -7 at a few spots. A look at our Covers Consensus page reveals that Ohio is attracted around 60% of the bets.

The Bobcats have been as close to a sure bet as you’ll find in college football this season, covering seven straight games. Situationally, you have to like them here. They are one of the hottest teams in college football and are one win away from winning the MAC East.

Bowling Green vs Ohio Over/Under analysis

We’re riding the Under here and following the sharp action. This total opened at 56.5 and has seen some sharp buy on the Under, causing it to fall to where it is now. Rourke's status makes this tricky, but given what we expect, we’ll gladly take 54.5. As I said at the onset, both of these defenses have improved as the season has gone – today feels like a culmination of that improvement.

There are heavy trends for both of these teams to the Over. It’s gone that way in five straight road games for Bowling Green and six consecutive games vs. a team with a winning record for Ohio.

However, those trends flipped when the two teams traveled to Ohio, with four of their last five meetings in Athens going Under. This feels like the spot for some market correction for many reasons.

Bowling Green vs Ohio betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Ohio. Find more NCAA betting trends for Bowling Green vs. Ohio.

Bowling Green vs Ohio game info

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