The 2024 preseason poll in the Big 12 expected Arizona State to finish last in the newly-expanded conference. Instead, the Sun Devils nearly sprung a Playoff upset.
Do not expect such a surprise in 2025, but understand that uncertainty lives within the Big 12. None of the 16 teams has a win total higher than 8.5, or lower than 4.5. Six teams have conference title odds shorter than +900, but no one is likelier than +550.
Predicting the Big 12 will be tough, but my college football picks will give it a whirl.
Big 12 best bets for 2025
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Texas Tech to win the Big 12 | +550 |
| Oklahoma State Under 4.5 wins | +126 |
| Houston Under 5.5 wins | +156 |
Read on for our full analysis and Big 12 breakdown!
Odds to win the Big 12
| Team | Odds to win | Win total O/U |
|---|---|---|
 Kansas State |
+550 | 8.5 |
 Texas Tech |
+550 | 8.5 |
 Arizona State |
+550 | 8.5 |
 Utah |
+600 | 7.5 |
 Baylor |
+650 | 7.5 |
 TCU |
+850 | 6.5 |
 Iowa State |
+1300 | 7.5 |
 Kansas |
+1400 | 6.5 |
 BYU |
+2700 | 6.5 |
 Houston |
+3000 | 5.5 |
 Cincinnati |
+3000 | 6.5 |
 Colorado |
+3300 | 5.5 |
 West Virginia |
+4000 | 5.5 |
 Arizona |
+4000 | 5.5 |
 Oklahoma State |
+6000 | 4.5 |
 UCF |
+7500 | 5.5 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Big 12 preview: Any team, any day
The piecemeal conference has become the third-strongest in the country.
What was once parts of the Pac 12, the AAC, and the bulk of the Big 12 is now a glorious pile of chaos. Entering the final weekend last season, more than half the conference could still reach the Big 12 championship game.
Bad Septembers became excellent Novembers, while strong starts to the season fell into slumping ends. Remember those ups and downs as this season begins: Do not overreact to any one weekend’s results. Nearly every game in the Big 12 is winnable for either team.
For example, preseason math expects Kansas State to be about a 16-point favorite when it hosts Central Florida on Sept. 27, the best on-paper team in the Big 12 hosting the worst on-paper team. A year ago, five double-digit favorites lost in Big 12 play, including four times at home.
That is not to suggest the frontrunner Wildcats will lose to Scott Frost in his first Big 12 game, but it is to argue that would not be the most unexpected outcome on a Scott Frost Day.
The favorites
In the piles of research for this preview, six teams were genuinely considered as title possibilities. That may seem like too short of a list when Arizona State rose from the lowest expectations a year ago to win the Big 12, but the top of the conference has actually improved since last preseason. More faith can be put in those Top 6.
Of them, three stand apart in both odds and analytics. Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Arizona State sit atop the odds board all at +550 at FanDuel, and in the advanced math, in that order per ESPN’s most recent SP+ ratings.
Grant the premise that a team’s floor is more important in the Big 12 than in other conferences. The minefield known as a Big 12 schedule requires discipline akin to an uncle playing his nephew in ping-pong. Keep lobbing the ball over the net, and let the 10-year-old get over-zealous and make a mistake. Keep control of your conference games, and let the rest of the conference stub toes.
A floor is best determined by the offensive and defensive lines, then raised further by a play-making but experienced quarterback. That recipe sets up a pecking order of Arizona State (led by Sam Leavitt), Kansas State (led by dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson), and Texas Tech (boosted by transfers at every position except quarterback, returning senior Behren Morton).
Some doubt can be thrown at the Wildcats in that conversation. Their former offensive line coach, Conor Riley, is now trying to bring the Dallas Cowboys stability. With only two returning starters along Kansas State’s offensive line, long-trusted development may now stagnate.
Some doubt can be thrown at the Sun Devils in that conversation, too. Close-game luck comes for everyone, and Arizona State needed a lot of luck last season, going 6-1 in one-score games in the regular season. The Sun Devils went 9-2 against FBS competition in the regular season, when winning only seven of those was far more likely.
The rest of the field
The remaining three teams under consideration were Utah, Baylor, and Iowa State. TCU is ahead of Iowa State on the odds board, but the schedule alone should doom the Horned Frogs. Within five Saturdays, TCU has to head to Kansas State and West Virginia (a lousy team but a tough environment) while also hosting Baylor and Iowa State.
Mostly, though, the Horned Frogs are simply not strong enough in the trenches to be taken seriously.
The same flaw exists with both Baylor’s and Iowa State’s defensive lines. Both should improve this year — the Bears return 10 defenders with at least 200 snaps last season, while the Cyclones were somewhat undone by injuries — but such improvement would likely elevate their defenses to just “good” and not “top few in the Big 12.”
If, however, either defensive line turns out to be a distinct strength in 2025, immediately consider that team to be a distinct College Football Playoff threat.
Then there is Utah. The Utes have had two years of injuries derail much of what Kyle Whittingham had built in the previous two decades. Their defense never faltered, though.
That defense combined with the best offensive line in the Big 12 could return Utah to the top of the conference. Well, not return to the top of the Big 12, given last year was the Utes’ first in the Big 12, but to the top of a conference.
Bringing in New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier and offensive coordinator Jason Beck should change the entire thought process around Utah’s offense.
Beck will speed up the tempo, and Dampier’s rushing ability will turn nearly every third-and-short into a conversion. The Lobos ranked No. 36 in the country last season in third-down conversions.
Dampier’s playmaking should allow the Utes some time to find complete chemistry, as will being favored in the first four games of the season.
What's next for Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloes?
The same problems that have plagued the Colorado Buffaloes will plague them again. Deion Sanders’ insistence on limited high school recruiting and an over-reliance on the transfer portal simply cannot yield a quality offensive line.
The best teams in the country can fill holes along their offensive lines via transfer, but no one can build an entire offensive line via transfer. Yet Deion keeps trying to.
Colorado returns only one genuine offensive line starter, and a team that was last in the country in rushing yards per game and No. 133 in offensive line push is liable to put up such wretched numbers again. Without Shedeur Sanders’s agility, that weakness will be further exploited.
The Buffaloes had a decent defense last year, and that could continue. Focus on early-season Unders, particularly in Week 1 against Georgia Tech. Colorado’s best-case scenario this season is that Liberty transfer quarterback Kaidon Salter finds a rhythm as the season goes on.
Pick to win the Big 12: Texas Tech (+550)
The Red Raiders can be found as long as +700, also the longest odds for the Utes. And this pick came down to those two.
Again, the want in the Big 12 is not necessarily a high ceiling. Everyone will falter in the Big 12. Who will falter least often? The need is to find a high floor.
Only Arizona State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Utah fit into that wonder, combining quality trenches with experienced and productive quarterbacks. Both the Sun Devils and the Wildcats have to face five of the other six teams given some respect here, both facing three of those foes away from home.
The scheduling matrix simply did them no favors, and in this conference, that lucky break is more crucial than in any other conference.
The Red Raiders do have the misfortune of needing to go on the road against all three of Utah, Arizona State and Kansas State, but in those latter two games, Texas Tech will have a slight schedule edge. If it can pick up one road upset, it should be in excellent position to reach the Big 12 title game.
Similarly, Utah will have a slight schedule edge, not to mention the best homefield advantage in the country, against Texas Tech and plenty of rest before hosting Arizona State. The Utes also host Kansas State. Of Utah’s four most worrying games, three are at home.
Those scheduling perks provide value on Texas Tech and Utah. Why bet on Texas Tech to win the Big 12 title game? Let’s expect the Utes to win at home on Sept. 20 only for the Red Raiders to exact revenge in Texas in December.
Favorite win totals bet: Oklahoma State Under 4.5 wins (+126)
Mike Gundy had a Hall of Fame run. He can be old-fashioned. He can be temperamental. He can disregard all semblances of conventional hairstyle. But above all else, he has been a Hall of Fame coach.
It is time for Gundy to walk away from Stillwater. Pushing forward after last year’s 3-9 embarrassment is an exercise in pride. No head coach wants to hang it up after going 0-9 in conference play.
But Oklahoma State does not return a single offensive starter and enjoys only three on defense. Sure, returning players from a 3-9 team would not necessarily be encouraging, but the Cowboys were also slow into the transfer portal, ranking No. 5 in the Big 12 despite this desperate need. Not a single position group can be trusted on this new-look roster.
Last year, Oklahoma State’s defense gave up early, allowing at least 38 points in each of its last eight games. Its offense followed suit late, averaging 20.5 points in the final four games, lowlighted by a 52-0 loss in the season finale at Colorado.
Such a quit factor should bring value to this plus-money bet. The Cowboys open against FCS-level Tennessee-Martin and host Tulsa three weeks later. Count both of those as wins. But to ruin this bet, Oklahoma State would likely need to win three of four games against the Big 12’s bottom half, with two of those games on the road. Doubting that should not be a plus-money proposition.
Bonus bet: Houston Under 5.5 wins (+156)
Willie Fritz is nothing if not stubborn. The Houston head coach insists on running the ball even when he shouldn’t. The Cougars had a bottom-third rushing attack last season on a per carry basis, yet they ran the ball about 9% more often than would be expected from a team in a given game state.
It is Fritz’s offensive design, and it has worked for him in the past. But as Houston looks to replace four offensive line starters on what was already an atrocious line, that running game will not work.
The Cougars should have a quality defense — bet Unders on their games in September — but unless that defense starts to score, Houston will still struggle to outpace even the miseries like Arizona and UCF. The Cougars likely need to win three of four such games, and with no functional offense, that should be outright doubted.
Best Big 12 player prop bet
Jalon Daniels, Kansas QB, Passing Overs on Aug. 23 vs. Fresno State
Kansas spent all last season playing in Kansas City rather than Lawrence as Memorial Stadium underwent renovations. They return home in Week 0 a few hours after the college football season kicks off in Dublin with Iowa State vs. Kansas State.
Daniels found his receivers for a good number of explosive plays last season despite the relative faceplant of a season. The Jayhawks lost five straight to fall to 1-5, four of those five losses coming by one possession. Turnovers ruined them, not impotence.
Daniels now has to break in a new set of receivers. As well as he can run and improvise, developing some chemistry by throwing over the Fresno State defense would serve a longer-term good. Also consider betting the Over 50.5.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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