Baylor vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Prove Tough Out in Norman

The Big 12 heads into Week 10 with a strong Saturday matchup when the Baylor Bears meet the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman.

Both schools are riding two-game winning streaks, with each still hunting for a Big 12 title. 

Who will win come out on top? Read our college football picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Oklahoma below to find out. 

Baylor vs Oklahoma best odds

Baylor vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

The Baylor Bears are a +3.5 road underdog and given the roll this team is on right now, my best bet is to take them with the points.

They’ve defeated a pair of former Top-20 teams, defeating Kansas at home and scoring an impressive 44-17 road victory over Texas Tech. 

Baylor is a good football team on both sides of the ball, and the offense revolves around the success of sophomore QB Blake Shapen and frosh RB Richard Reese.

Shapen has been a bit inconsistent this season but has thrown for 1,819 yards with 13 scoring strikes but has thrown five picks. He’s not the most mobile QB but completes 67% of his passes with a couple of solid wideouts in Gavin Holmes and Monaray Baldwin. 

Reese has carried the Bears' offense on his back over the past two weeks, rushing for 334 yards and five TDs, and has 791 rushing yards with a dozen TDs on the season. Baylor usually wins when Reese has a big day, and he’ll certainly need one Saturday.

The Sooners’ defense hasn’t been the best it's ever been, but they seemed to look better last week in their win over Iowa State. Before that, they allowed at least 41 points over their previous four, and I believe the Sooners' defensive improvement has more to do with a mediocre Cyclones offense than anything else.

Oklahoma ranks 84th in passing yards and 107th in rushing yards allowed. Reese could be in line for a big game, and if Shapen can avoid a multiple-interception game, the Bears' offense won’t have trouble moving the ball and scoring points. 

The Sooners' offense is loaded but inconsistent. Junior QB Dillon Gabriel struggled in the win over Iowa State but has thrown for 1,766 yards with 14 TD passes and one interception. He and wideout Marvin Mims have hooked up for 558 yards and three scoring strikes. RB Eric Gray (questionable) has rushed for 796 yards and six TDs for an Oklahoma offense ranked 41st in scoring.

Baylor is 50th in points, 67th in passing yards, and 23rd in rushing yards allowed. The Sooners’ will be a real test for the Baylor defense but the Bears have turned the corner, allowing 40 points over their last two against good offenses.

Baylor has the offense to score with Oklahoma but has a solid enough defense to keep the Sooners from blowing up the scoreboard. The Bears passing defense is pretty good and good enough to prevent a Gabriel to Mims highlight reel, and a banged-up Gray will find it difficult to find holes against a stout Bears' rushing defense. 

If Baylor has any chance of covering, Reese has to eat, and I believe he will. Oklahoma looked good against Iowa State, but so does every other defense the Cyclones has faced.

That should open things up enough for Shapen to attack a soft Sooners’ secondary, move the chains, and put enough points on the board to cover the spread. I like Baylor to cover the +3.5 points Saturday. 

My best bet: Baylor +3.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

Baylor vs Oklahoma spread analysis

Baylor is +140 on the moneyline and I think there's some real value at that price. 

The Bears have lost three games by a combined total of 14 points. Baylor is in every game they play, and we certainly can’t say the same for Oklahoma, as its combined losses were by a whopping 88 points.

Baylor is 2-2-0 ATS as the away team while Oklahoma is 1-3-0 ATS at Memorial Stadium. The Bears are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Oklahoma, and the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Baylor vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis

At 61.5 points, this is a high total, and as such, I'm leaning towards the Under.

The Sooners' offense revolves around their ground game, and with Gray at less than 100%, the offense will have to rely on Gabriel, which plays right into the Bears' hand. Look for Bears safety Al Walcott to shadow Mims and make life difficult for Gabriel and Oklahoma.

Shapen has thrown a pair of multiple-interception games over his past five. Both of those stinkers were at home, but Oklahoma does average a pair of sacks and an interception per contest.  Sooners LB DeShaun White had 14 tackles last week, and he could put a damper on the Bears' rushing attack.

Baylor has a dead-even turnover margin, while Oklahoma is +0.4 per contest. The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Oklahoma and 4-0 in the last four meetings. 

Baylor vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

The Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Oklahoma.

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