College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction: Fighting With Themselves

2025 CFP Bracket analysis

The top pair of this bracket should need little explanation. They are the clear frontrunners in the National Championship odds, and they are both aggressively juiced to reach the Playoff. That latter thought can also apply to Texas (-600 at BetMGM after its trouncing of Michigan) and Oregon (-350 despite its struggle against Boise State), but neither will be a conference champion in these predictions, so they fall out of the Top 4. Notre Dame and Penn State winning their season openers on the road also moved both into pole position, so to speak, to make the Playoff. Of course, the Irish then botched that luxury, while the Nittany Lions still enjoy -225 odds.

Utah returns the key pieces of its offense that were lost to injury last year, and it should have the best offensive and defensive line play in the Big 12, thus winning its third conference championship in the last four years. Seventh-year quarterback Cam Rising got this thought off to a strong start with his five touchdowns in a 49-0 win against Southern Utah, and his hand injury against Baylor on Sept. 7 looks to be only a short-term worry.

This article was initially published in mid-August suggesting, "Clemson could conceivably start the season 0-2, but since neither loss would be in the ACC, the Tigers would still have a genuine shot at winning the conference." Losing to Georgia obviously did not change that thought process, and with Florida State effectively removed from ACC contention with two conference losses, Clemson could even fall to the Seminoles (Oct. 5) and still make the conference championship game. The Tigers' dismantling of Appalachian State prevented that 0-2 start and restored some faith in Clemson's offense, at least momentarily.

Even if Miami goes 12-0, Clemson’s coaching advantage should be the difference in the first week of December, thus securing a first-round bye.

The two hardest parts of this were:
1) Choosing an ACC champ. This is different than placing a futures bet. A futures bet is oftentimes predicated on value. It's why you see so much action on Virginia Tech and NC State right now. Those aren't bracket predictions. Those are value. https://t.co/eqpEwTBBtR

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) July 25, 2024

At 12-1, the Hurricanes would undoubtedly still make the field, though years of SEC bias could nonetheless propel the Longhorns to the No. 5 seed. The same thought applies to Alabama if the Tide can go 11-1 in Kalen DeBoer’s debut season, certainly plausible despite two road trips to Tennessee (Oct. 19) and LSU (Nov. 9) causing worry beyond a presumed loss to Georgia on Sept. 28.

From there, the wonder is what teams will end the season with no more than two losses. In the last 10 years, only one season would have seen a three-loss team making a 12-team Playoff as an at-large. As a rule of thumb, assume anyone with three losses will miss this bracket. Teams like Missouri and Michigan have slim hopes, as a result.

9-3 makes the playoffs in the last 10 years with a 12 team bracket?

Three times and is was all in 2018 with UCF 12-0 at no 8 and 10 11 and 12 at 9-3.

Everyone else had 10 or more wins to make the bracket.

So odds of 9-3 and making the 12 team playoff approx 3%

— Dave Bartoo (@CFBMatrix) July 9, 2024

After opening the season with a loss to USC, there should be little confidence in LSU making a Playoff run. Specifically, the Trojans exploited the Tigers' defensive backs. When Mississippi visits Baton Rouge on Oct. 12, those defensive backs' struggles should spell LSU's demise, raising the Rebels' floor high enough that their Playoff chances can survive a loss to Georgia in mid-November, even perhaps survive that loss and another stubbed toe.

A similar offense has looked even better through two games, including an evisceration of a supposedly competent North Carolina State defense. Tennessee hosts Alabama on Oct. 19 and heads to Georgia on Nov. 16. At this point, one has to think the Vols would need to lose both of those to stand any chance of missing the Playoff and even then, at least one 10-2 team is going to reach this bracket.

That leaves the Group of Five automatic qualifiers. Up until this week, this bracket prediction has focused on Appalachian State. And, frankly, nothing has changed about the Mountaineers' path, not even after their ugly loss at Clemson. Beat Liberty later this month, run the Sun Belt table, and be the best-looking Group of Five conference champion.

But Tulane looked so feisty against Kansas State last weekend, undone more by fluke football plays than by anything on a down-to-down basis, this moment of consideration should be granted. Jon Sumrall inherited a potent program, and he has kept the Green Wave defense at an intimidating level. Tulane's Playoff hopes may end at Oklahoma this weekend, or they may be burgeoned to a point of great notice.

Both co-hosts of "College Football 134" recognized what the Green Wave did to the Wildcats last weekend. There may be reason to believe in Tulane in Norman on Saturday.

In the meantime, if you're betting on college football odds, we've compiled a list of the safest legal college football betting sites.

How the 2025 CFP work

The five highest-ranked conference champions will each get an automatic berth. They will be joined by the next seven highest-ranked teams in the Playoff selection committee’s rankings following conference championship weekend. The four highest-ranked of those conference champions will receive first-round byes into the quarterfinals of the Playoffs.

Aside from possibly elevating a conference champion into the top four, the seeding will be dictated entirely by the Playoff selection committee’s rankings, with the final rankings coming on Sunday, December 8.

Seeds 5 through 12 will meet in the first round, with seeds 5 through 8 hosting those games on or near their respective campuses.

Despite all the controversy of years past, the selection criteria remain unchanged. While that seems to be a shifting definition every year, the most constant thing to always remember has been impressive wins matter more than humbling losses.

Why the College Football Playoff is expanding

Clamor to expand the Playoff began even before we saw the first display of the four-team format in 2014. The four-team format had its perks, namely that it was a step in the direction of including more of the national college football landscape. But not even all of the Power Five conferences could fit their respective champions into that format.

Sure, that problem would have been fixed by the unfortunate demise of the Pac-12, but that still would have left out the 62 teams in the Group of Five, not to mention the possible complicating factors of Notre Dame, Oregon State, and Washington State.

Giving all 134 college football teams a genuine chance at the national championship should have always been part of the format, and it is a welcomed return to what makes this sport great. Is it likely that the MAC champion will crack the field? No, but if Miami (OH) or Northern Illinois goes to Notre Dame this year and springs an upset on its way to a 13-0 season, then it probably would be included in the 12-team format as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. And guess what, the Huskies have now turned that hypothetical into a possibility.

Furthermore, the selection committee excluding the No. 12 team in the country — a 10-2 Oklahoma last year, a 10-2 Washington in 2022, and an 11-2 Pittsburgh in 2021 — will upset far fewer people than excluding the No. 5 team in the country from the title hunt, particularly after that team was a 13-0 ACC champion Florida State last year.

The new bracket will affect NCAAF National Championship odds

The expanded field distinctly impacts college football National Championship odds. More teams will reach college bowl game odds time with a chance at glory, but teams will need even more depth to survive this season.

Even if a team enjoys a first-round bye, playing three Top-10 quality teams in three straight weeks will exact a toll. Recruiting depth has always mattered, but it may matter now more than ever.

See our updated 2025 bracket for a look at how the seeding will work.

Important dates for the 2025 College Football Playoff