Virginia vs Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Cavaliers' Offense Will Regress

Virginia is off to an impressive 5-0 start with ranked wins over Baylor and Illinois. However, our college basketball betting picks dive into the Cavaliers' red-hot shooting and why you shouldn't expect it to continue.

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2022 11:05 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Armaan Franklin Jayden Gardner Reece Beekman Virginia Cavaliers
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The No. 3-ranked Virginia Cavaliers head to Ann Arbor to face off against the Michigan Wolverines on Tuesday night. This should be an entertaining battle between two marquee NCAA hoops programs.

College basketball odds opened with unbeaten UVA as a 4-point road favorite and while that line quickly grew to -4.5, buyback on the home side has since seen it shorten to -3.5.

Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Virginia vs. Michigan. 

Virginia vs Michigan best odds

Virginia vs Michigan picks and predictions

Tony Bennett's squads are typically known for their smothering pack line defense but it's Virginia's offensive efficiency that has really impressed. That said, their offensive numbers simply aren't sustainable. 

Armaan Franklin, Kehei Clark, and Reece Beekman are combining to knock down 5.0 threes per game at a 45.5% clip after averaging 3.69 treys at a 32.3% rate last season. Meanwhile, big man Kaden Shedrick is averaging 11.2 ppg on 73.9% shooting.

Sure, those guys have clearly improved but considering that this is virtually the same lineup that shot 44.9% from the field and 32.3% from the arc last year, steep regression seems inevitable. 

The Wolverines have a pair of highly-efficient scorers in Hunter Dickinson and freshman wing Jett Howard but their other three starters have combined to shoot just 34.7% from the floor. Michigan is shooting a pathetic 38% from the floor over its last three games and now faces a stingy UVA squad that plays at the second-slowest pace in the nation. 

The Wolverines don't exactly push the pace either, ranking 212th in adjusted temp according to KenPom, which is why I'm betting on the Under.

My best bet: Under 130.5 (-110 at bet365)

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Virginia vs Michigan spread analysis

Virginia is a perfect 5-0 and fresh off a 72-45 beatdown of tiny Maryland Eastern Shore. 

The Cavaliers coming off a disappointing season where they went 21-14 and missed out on the NCAA Tournament. However, all five starters returned to the team and they upgraded their bench with transfer Ben Vander Plas, who was a first-team All-MAC selection at Ohio. 

That experience and continuity have resulted in a terrific start with the Cavs beating ranked opponents Baylor and Illinois on neutral ground. The Cavaliers rank fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

It's been a disappointing start to the season for the Michigan Wolverines who were ranked in AP Top 25 on opening night but have since fallen out. To be fair, they're 5-1 SU but their lone defeat was an ugly 25-point loss to Arizona State and they barely beat mediocre teams like Eastern Michigan and Ohio at home. 

The Wolverines lost four starters from last year's Sweet 16 team but they did return second-team All-American Hunter Dickinson. The center leads the team with 18.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while highly-regarded freshman wing Jett Howard is averaging 15.2 ppg on 50/44/72 shooting splits. 

The Wolverines are 29th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but went ice-cold from the field against ASU and Ohio. They rank 86th in AdjD and are limiting opponents to just 40.5% shooting and are coming off a 78-68 win against Jackson State where they held the Tigers to just 37% shooting.

Virginia vs Michigan Over/Under analysis

I'm expecting regression from the Cavaliers' offense tonight in the hostile environment of the Crisler Center, but they've been a finely-tuned machine so far this season.

The Cavaliers typically play at a snail's pace and don't turn the ball over much but their red-hot shooting has been reminiscent of the 2020 season when they won the National Championship. Virginia is shooting 49.8% from the field while draining 44.8% of their shots from long range. 

Even with Dickenson and Howard balling out, the Wolverines have struggled to consistently score over their three games. That's despite their last two contests coming at home against Jackson State and Ohio who are 291st and 224th in the nation in defensive efficiency. 

Virginia vs Michigan betting trend to know

The Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games while the Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their previous five contests on the road. Find more College basketball betting trends for Virginia vs. Michigan.

Virginia vs Michigan game info

Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
Date: Tuesday, November 29, 2022
Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

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