Vanderbilt vs Memphis Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bursting Through the Dores'

The Memphis Tigers have played eight consecutive matchups against top 100 ranked teams but might catch a break Saturday afternoon when the Tigers welcome the Vanderbilt Commodores to the FedExForum.

The college basketball odds have Memphis favored by as many as -18.5 points, and rightly so; the Tigers are riding a four-game winning streak and play host to a Vanderbilt side desperately seeking to end a three-game losing skid.

Please join me as I take a closer look at the CBB odds with free college basketball picks as I preview Vanderbilt vs Memphis on Saturday, December 23.

Vanderbilt vs Memphis best odds

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Vanderbilt vs Memphis picks and predictions

The Memphis Tigers have taken on one of the toughest schedules in the nation. They’ve played nine of the first 11 games against Top 100 KenPom ranked squads and have won seven of those nine games.

The Tigers finally get a break and face three consecutive teams outside the top 186 and are favored by as many as -18.5 when they host No. 233 Vanderbilt.

Scoring buckets in droves is what the Tigers do. Memphis has scored 77+ in each of their last five games, but there is more to the Tigers than just scoring the basketball.

These Tigers defend. They did a great job holding Virginia to 39.3% shooting from the field and 21.1% from downtown, and the result was a 77-54 victory over the No. 22 ranked Cavaliers. Their defense was suffocating, they scored 27 points from turnovers and had the result in their hip pocket from the opening tip.

Vanderbilt enters this matchup losers of three straight and six of their last seven. They’ve faced four top-100 teams thus far and went 0-4. Outside of the 78 points scored on a neutral court against NC State, the Commodores failed to score more than 62 points against any other top-100 team.

That will be problematic for Vandy, especially if Memphis plays defense on Saturday with the same intensity as they did against Virginia. They interrupted the Cavaliers' passing lanes, chased the Hoos off the three-point line, and won every major statistical category outside of breaking even with Virginia on the windows. Vandy won’t handle that well.

Vanderbilt has had a difficult time scoring the basketball.  According to ShotQuality, the Commodores play far too many ISO plays, are inefficient at the cup, and don’t make their triples, mostly against inferior defenses. It would take a Herculean effort for them to clear 60 points against the longer and more defensively efficient Tigers, and I don’t see Hercules turning up at FedExForum.

Finally, Memphis will likely need to score 90+ for this game to go Over the total. Vandy isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but it isn’t out of the norm for young players to suffer a letdown against an inferior opponent. The Under is 0-5-0 to the Under during the past five Commodores matchups and I expect this contest to follow that trend.

My best bet: Under 150.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Vanderbilt vs Memphis same-game parlay

Under 150.5 points

Vanderbilt +18

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+246 at DraftKings

The FedExForum crowd will be electric as always, and Vandy will have difficulty dealing with the crowd and the Tigers' suffocating defense. The Commodores play a slow tempo, are the more experienced team, and will attempt to keep the ball away from the Tigers, which will slow down Memphis offensively. 

Memphis shot nearly 40% from downtown against Virginia, but that was well above their 34% season average, which means some regression for the Tigers. They don’t need the triple to beat Vandy, but they will cover it, and I expect a closer matchup than the bookmakers do.

Finally, Vandy has a terrible offense, and just 1-4-0 ATS over their last five, but Memphis isn’t a great cover team and failed to cover the only time as a double-digit favorite (28.5). 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Vanderbilt vs Memphis spread and Over/Under analysis

Vanderbilt backers can find the best number on the spread (+18.5) at FanDuel, but the -118 odds we can live without. Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 have +18 (-110), while most of the offshore bookmakers hung +17.5 (-110) on their boards.

The best thing for Vandy backers would be to wait for a number better than the +18.5 FanDuel offers. The public will back Memphis, and that number could and probably will return to the +18.5 they opened at and maybe give us better odds than FanDuel’s -118.

FanDuel offers -104 odds on Memphis -18.5, while Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 have Memphis -18 (-110). If you like Memphis to cover, then -18 is the best number pregame you’ll likely see.

We’ve already discussed the total, but I will sprinkle the Vanderbilt moneyline. FanDuel has +1280 for this wager, and it’s worth a $10 risk to me. It’s highly unlikely we’ll see a Commodores victory, but anything can happen in non-conference action. 

Vanderbilt vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0 in Commodores' last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Memphis.

Vanderbilt vs Memphis game info

Vanderbilt vs Memphis key injuries

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