The NIT begins today with matchups across eight college campuses, including the No. 3 Yale Bulldogs, who host the UNC Wilmington Seahawks in the first-ever NIT game at John J. Lee Amphitheater on ESPN+ at 7 pm ET.
These two dangerous mid-majors fell short in their respective conference tournaments, but are analytic darlings that could make some noise in the NIT — if they advance past their tough First Round opponent, that is.
Check out my UNC Wilmington vs. Yale predictions and college basketball picks for Tuesday, March 17.
Who will win UNC Wilmington vs Yale?
Yale will survive and advance as the rightful home favorite. UNC Wilmington suffered a 15-point loss to a poor Campbell (16-18) squad in the Seahawks’ only game in the CAA tournament, which hardly inspires confidence in its postseason form.
Takayo Siddle’s squad didn’t show well against quality competition, which contrasts with Yale’s non-conference wins over Navy, Charleston, Akron, Vermont, and Howard.
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UNC Wilmington vs Yale prediction
UNC Wilmington vs Yale best bet: Over 147 (-110)
The Yale Bulldogs have one of the most prolific offenses among mid-major teams, checking in at 35th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom). They rank 24th in effective field goal percentage (56.1%) and average 81.8 points per game.
The UNC Wilmington Seahawks' defensive philosophy involves walling off the rim and forcing opponents to beat them from deep (317th in 3-point attempt rate against). That may work against CAA foes, but Yale hits threes at 40% and will fill it up if given room.
Yale is 9-3 O/U in non-conference matchups, when its defense (202nd in adjusted efficiency) generally fails to match the offense.
COVERS INTEL: Yale's offense plays up to its competition. In 10 games against teams ranked within the Top 120 in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Bulldogs scored 74+ nine times while averaging 80.5 PPG.UNC Wilmington vs Yale same-game parlay
Yale is a Top-60 team according to some metrics, but missed the Big Dance after falling in overtime to Penn in the conference final.
Offensive talent is more important than ever in postseason college basketball tournaments, and the Bulldogs are covered on that front. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank outside the Top 150 in offensive efficiency over the last month (BartTorvik).
This is a comfortable travel spot — the Ivy League Tournament was held in Ithaca — for Yale to come out strong in the first half and gain momentum.
UNC Wilmington vs Yale SGP
- Yale -5
- Over 147
Our beyond the arc SGP: Bulldogs on the Comeback Trail
Let’s say that Yale’s offense comes out firing, which isn’t unusual, but the defense continues to slide after allowing 82 PPG in two Ivy League Tournament games. After all, Wilmington is a fast-starting team, cashing the first-half moneyline in 12 consecutive games
Yale’s strong shooting comes in handy for the second half, when it pulls away in a high-scoring contest.
UNC Wilmington vs Yale SGP
- UNC Wilmington first-half moneyline
- Yale moneyline
- Yale team total Over 76.5
UNC Wilmington vs Yale odds
- Spread: UNC Wilmington +5 (-110) | Yale -5 (-110)
- Moneyline: UNC Wilmington +180 | Yale -220
- Over/Under: Over 146.5 (-110) | Under 146.5 (-110)
UNC Wilmington vs Yale betting trend to know
UNC Wilmington has hit the Over in 10 of its 14 games played away from home. Find more college basketball betting trends for UNC Wilmington vs. Yale.
How to watch UNC Wilmington vs Yale
| Location | John J. Lee Amphitheater, New Haven, CT |
| Date | Tuesday, March 17, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
UNC Wilmington vs Yale key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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