UCLA vs Oregon Odds, Picks and Predictions: Ducks Don't Back Down From Bruins

The first of two semifinal games in the 2023 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament features the No. 1 seed UCLA Bruins and No. 4 seed Oregon Ducks. 

A shorthanded Bruins squad pulled away from Colorado for an 80-69 win to advance, while the Ducks coughed up a 19-point first-half lead against Washington State but remained steadfast in crunch time to win 75-70.

Chalk has held firm in the top half of the bracket so far. Will that be the case again Friday night? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Oregon vs. UCLA to find out. 

UCLA vs Oregon best odds

UCLA vs Oregon picks and predictions

The Bruins were the favorite to cut down the nets in Las Vegas for a reason. They are one of the best teams in the nation and are of course a bonafide threat to win the NCAA Tournament. They were dominant in conference play with 18 wins and just two losses and rank second overall in KenPom. Bracketoligists disagree on whether they will be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed come March. 

Mick Cronin’s side suffered a big loss when Jaylen Clark (13.0 ppg) was announced out for the season with an Achilles injury suffered in the regular season finale. He is the team’s second-leading scorer and led the conference in steals with 2.6 per game en route to being named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year. 

The Bruins were able to hold off a feisty Colorado team in the second round as freshman Amari Bailey stepped into a bigger role and thrived with 26 points on 8-for-12 shooting, while Senior David Singleton played 35 minutes and should continue to see a huge role moving forward. Losing Clark certainly hurts, but UCLA does have high-level replacement options. 

Oregon has felt like an underachieving team for most of the year, yet it still has a chance to go dancing. A win on Friday night would be absolutely enormous to strengthen its resume. Dana Altman has a history of coaching his team to impressive runs during March and he’ll look to add another feather to his cap in this year’s tournament. 

It hasn’t been the case this season, but the Ducks have typically been a tough matchup for Cronin. Altman had won four straight over Cronin in this series before two single-digit Bruins victories this season. UCLA rallied for a victory without Clark against Colorado, but that game was very close throughout until the Bruins pulled away late, and the Ducks are better than the Buffaloes. 

I’ll take Oregon to keep this one within the spread.

My best bet: Oregon +6 (-110 at DraftKings)

UCLA vs Oregon spread analysis

The spread has opened at Bruins -6 across most books. 

UCLA won both of the regular season meetings, the first a 65-55 win at home back on December 4 despite shooting just 40.6% from the field compared to Oregon’s 49%. How did it manage that? By winning the rebounding battle 33-23 and turning the ball over just eight times. 

The Bruins were again outshot in the second matchup on February 11, this time 41.7% to Oregon’s 43.8%. Winning the turnover battle was crucial, as they committed just six turnovers while the Ducks quacked it up 16 times. 

It’s been tough to pick against UCLA, who at 19-12-1 against the spread (12-8-1 ATS in conference play) has been underrated in the betting market all year. With Clark out for the season and a high seed in the NCAA Tournament already locked up, this isn’t necessarily a spot where I’m rushing to back the Bruins.

Both teams have plenty of experience on the roster and are headed by two terrific coaches, so I expect a solid effort from both sides. Oregon desperately needs a win to keep its dreams of going dancing alive and Altman has played Cronin teams well in the past, so the Ducks are my preferred side. 

UCLA vs Oregon Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 134.5 across most books, although 134 is also available at the time of this writing. 

Both of the regular season matchups went Under this number. Even though the Ducks managed to shoot the ball well in those matchups, the Bruins controlled the pace of the game and kept possessions at a minimum. That’s what Cronin’s team prefers to do as they rank just 223rd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. 

UCLA has the nation’s sixth-best scoring defense, surrendering 60.1 points per game while ranking second in adjusted efficiency. The Bruins are proficient in defending all areas of the court, ranking 59th in 2-point field goal defense (47%) and 45th in 3-point defense (31.1%). 

After a strong start to the Under this season, UCLA has gone 4-1 to the Over in its last five as books are finally adjusting numbers. The Over is 7-2 in the Bruins’ last nine games against a team with a winning straight-up record. 

Oregon, meanwhile, has played to the Over in four straight games. The Ducks are 15-5-1 to the Over in their last 21 neutral-site games. 

The Over hit in all four second-round games in this tournament a day ago and that would be my preferred side. 

UCLA vs Oregon betting trend to know

The Ducks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record. Find more college basketball betting trends for UCLA vs. Oregon.

UCLA vs Oregon game info

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