The Texas Tech Red Raiders will play their first road game since losing All-American candidate J.T. Toppin to a season-ending knee injury.
The Red Raiders looked fine in back-to-back home wins over Kansas State and Cincinnati, but traveling to face No. 4 Iowa State Cyclones is a whole different animal.
My Texas Tech vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks call for reality to set in for the Red Raiders, who come out on the wrong end of an Iowa State cover.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State prediction
Texas Tech vs Iowa State best bet: Iowa State -10.5 (-110)
Not only does the Texas Tech Red Raiders lose JT Toppin's 21.8 points and league-leading 10.8 rebounds, but it'll also be without the only player over 6-foot-6 who plays more than 20 minutes a night.
That makes the task of stopping the Iowa State Cyclones two leading scorers, both veteran 6-foot-8 forwards, even tougher.
Tech has beaten K-State and Cincinnati, two teams that rank below 180 in offensive rebounding rate since losing Toppin. Iowa State is No. 33. The Cyclones are also No. 40 in two-point shooting percentage, 100 spots higher than Tech's last two opponents.
Iowa State should have its way inside against the depleted Red Raiders.
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Texas Tech vs Iowa State same-game parlay
Iowa State and Tech play at the 189th- and 211th-ranked tempos in the country, respectively. The Cyclones have gone Under in the last two games and five of the last six. Tech has been under five of the last seven.
Joshua Jefferson leads Iowa State in rebounding and is second in scoring at 16.6 points per game. He is also an elite defender and should be able to help capitalize on a Texas Tech team that turned it over on one in five possessions against Cincinnati last time out.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State SGP
- Iowa State -10.5
- Under 146
- Joshua Jefferson Over 16.5 points
Our beyond the arc SGP: Tall Trees!
Forwards have been gashing the Toppin-less Red Raiders. Kansas State's 6-foot-7 Taj Manning was averaging 3.8 points a game but went for 10 against Tech. Cincinnati's three tallest players—Moustapha Thiam, Baba Miller, and Jalen Celestine—combined for 48 points, more than 14 over their combined season average.
In addition to being 6-foot-8, like Jefferson, Momcilovic is also the team's best three-point shooter, hitting more than half his 7.3 attempts.
While point guard Christian Anderson is attempting to carry the Red Raiders on his back the rest of the way, Watts has also stepped up his scoring, tallying 32 in the last two games without Toppin.
Texas Tech vs Iowa State SGP
- Iowa State -10.5
- Joshua Jefferson Over 16.5 points
- Milan Momcilovic Over 15.5 points
- LeJuan Watts Over 12.5 points
Texas Tech vs Iowa State odds
- Spread: Texas Tech +11 (-110) | Iowa State -11 (-110)
- Moneyline: Texas Tech +431 | Iowa State -575
- Over/Under: Over 144.5 (-110) | Under 144.5 (-110)
Texas Tech vs Iowa State betting trend to know
Iowa State has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of its last 20 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Texas Tech vs. Iowa State.
How to watch Texas Tech vs Iowa State
| Location | Hilton Coliseum, Ames, IA |
| Date | Saturday, February 28, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Texas Tech vs Iowa State key injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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