Kentucky hopes to pick up a much-needed Quad 1 when the Wildcats play host to the Tennessee Volunteers on Saturday night. Our college basketball odds for this Top 10 matchup have the Vols as slight underdogs at Rupp Arena.
The Wildcats have dropped two of three after a 94-91 overtime loss to Florida on Wednesday. Kentucky went to the free-throw line with a chance to ice the game in regulation, but a missed attempt and bad defense ultimately allowed the Gators to hit a tying three in the dying seconds.
Meanwhile, Tennessee sits at 5-2 following a loss to South Carolina on Tuesday night, a game that saw the Vols score just 59 points in an abysmal offensive showing. The loss is just their second in the past 13 games, and they’ve yet to lose consecutive games all season.
Our college basketball picks and predictions for Tennessee vs. Kentucky explain why Kentucky’s inability to defend on the perimeter should lead to a big game for a Tennessee star.
Tennessee vs Kentucky best odds
Tennessee vs Kentucky picks and predictions
When I sat down on Friday night to begin this preview, I was thrilled to see Dalton Knecht’s point total sitting at 21.5 on FanDuel. I was ready to make it a two-unit play and immediately jumped on the Over.
Unfortunately, the number moved overnight, but I’m still backing the Tennessee Volunteers guard to score at least 25 against the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday night. Knecht's scoring prop jumped to 24.5 across most markets, which may seem like a lot for a college game — but that’s before you look at what he’s done, and what Kentucky hasn’t.
Knecht opened SEC play with a rough outing in part thanks to some foul issues and a blowout. He played just 19 minutes in Tennessee’s 90-64 thumping of Ole Miss and posted just eight points on nine attempts.
Since then, he’s been an absolute menace. No matter what defenses are thrown Knecht's way, he’s simply torching everyone he’s facing.
In his last six games, three of which came on the road, the 22-year-old's “worst” game was a 25-point outing against Alabama. He only went 1-of-6 from downtown in that game, but still got to the rim easily and reached the line eight times.
Knecht has racked up 31+ points in four of his last five, which includes a 42.6 usage rate in Tennessee’s loss on Tuesday to South Carolina. He accounted for 31 of the team’s 59 points, as he made five mid-range jumpers and got to the line 10 times.
Those are important numbers to look at against Kentucky. Despite boasting the third-highest block rate in college hoops, the Wildcats rank 106th in 2-point defense. They can be had when they aren’t protecting the rim, and Knecht is very good at the pull-up game if he’s unable to get to the rim.
The Wildcats also are getting torched this season by ball-dominant players. Three different opposing players have already gone for career highs against the Wildcats, with at least 20 points scored.
Making matters worse for Kentucky, D.J. Wagner’s very doubtful for the game, leaving the Wildcats with no real ball-stoppers on the perimeter.
As a UK fan myself, Knecht scares me, and I won’t be shocked to see him go for at least 30 tonight. FanDuel dropped their line down to 23.5 just before noon, so grab it at -115 while you can.
My best bet: Dalton Knecht Over 23.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)
Tennessee vs Kentucky same-game parlay
Dalton Knecht Over 24.5 points
Over 159.5
Tennessee moneyline
We’re taking the Over in what should be a “defense is optional” type of contest. These teams both rank in the Top 65 in shot attempts per game, and play at a high pace with plenty of 3-point shooters on both sides. Kentucky’s going to face a tougher defense than usual in this spot, but I see the winner of this game getting into the 90s.
That winner, unfortunately for yours truly, is going to be Tennessee. The loss of Wagner is a huge one for Kentucky’s guard rotation, and Tennessee’s defense is going to give the Wildcats problems when they’re forced to operate in the halfcourt.
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Tennessee vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread of 1.5 pts sees Kentucky favored, but the line opened with the Vols laying that number on Friday afternoon. A few places have Kentucky laying a single point on Saturday at mid-day, but with news still to come on DJ Wagner’s official status, that number may switch back to Tennessee being chalk by tip-off.
The Vols have gone 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games, including a 0-3 mark on the road. Meanwhile, Kentucky has gone just 2-5 ATS in its last seven, including 1-3 in its last four. The Wildcats have also failed to cover in two straight at home.
The total opened at 161.5 and has come down to 159.5 or 159 depending on the book. That’s likely due to Wagner’s availability, as well as Tennessee ranking 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Vols' last seven games have seen the Over go 4-3, but three of the last four have cashed the Under. That includes two straight games with totals below 142 points. Kentucky finished with two rare Unders in its last two road contests, but the Over has gone 8-2 in the last 10.
Tennessee vs Kentucky betting trend to know
The Wildcats' last 32 games have seen the Over go 23-9 (+13.1 units / 37% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Tennessee vs. Kentucky.
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Tennessee vs Kentucky game info
| Location: | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, February 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Tennessee vs Kentucky key injuries
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