The Southeast Missouri State Redhawks square off against the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles with an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament on the line in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Final tonight.
The Redhawks have enjoyed their tournament, rattling off three straight wins and covers — including a victory Friday over top-seed Morehead State as four-point ‘dogs.
The Golden Eagles have had to play just one game to get to the title game, belting Tennessee-Martin 78-63, as the No. 2 seed looks to punch its ticket to the big dance.
Will Southeast Missouri State complete its Cinderella run as 5-seed, or will Tennessee Tech fly into the Big Dance? We’ll break it all down in our college basketball picks and predictions for Southeast Missouri State vs. Tennessee Tech on March 4.
Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech best odds
Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech picks and predictions
The Redhawks have won and covered all three games in Evansville this week, and the three covers tie a season-long streak that has been accomplished twice before.
SE Missouri State ended up picking up an 84-77 win in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite back on January 21 in Cape Girardeau.
Tennessee Tech returned the favor in Cookeville with an 82-80 win as short ‘dogs at home as the Over connected.
SE Missouri State shot 44% (26-for-59) in that most recent meeting at Tennessee Tech, including 43% (10-for-23) from behind the 3-point line. The Redhawks were fabulous from the free-throw line at 86% (18 of 21), making up for 15 turnovers.
The Golden Eagles outrebounded SE Missouri State by a 34-to-31 margin, but an amazing 48% (14-for-29) night from behind the arc was the difference in that close game.
Jaylen Sebree was good for 22 points, nine rebounds, and five assists in the narrow win over the Redhawks, while Phillip Russell is the one to watch for SE Missouri State. He dropped 29 on the Eagles in the most recent meeting, while posting eight assists with four triples.
The Redhawks have been on quite the roll and have momentum after the three victories and covers to get it done. Tennessee Tech is a 2-seed in this tournament, but it is still under .500.
Look for Missouri State to keep up the good work, punching its ticket to a likely First Four game in Dayton in a week and a half.
My best bet: SE Missouri State -1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech spread analysis
The Redhawks scooted back over .500 with the win over Morehead State, the top seed in the OVC. It has been a little bit of a shocking run, as SE Missouri State closed out the regular season on a 2-5 straight up and 2-6 against the spread.
It has tapped into its previous success on a neutral floor. The Redhawks are an outstanding 14-3 ATS across the past 17 neutral-site games, while cashing in five of the past seven games overall.
They're also an impressive 5-2 ATS in the past seven games after a cover, while going 13-6 ATS in the past 19 games after a straight-up win.
The Golden Eagles are fierce, at least against the number, going 8-3 ATS in the past 11 games against winning teams. However, I don’t like the fact they had plenty of time off, and just the lone win over the Skyhawks in this tournament.
Momentum is on the side of the Redhawks, and there is a lot to like about teams grinding out four wins in four days. SE Missouri State will get it done with adrenaline, talent, and solid offense.
Take it to win this one by at least a bucket, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see another one-possession game between these two.
Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech Over/Under analysis
The Redhawks have rolled up 77.1 ppg this season, while allowing 76.5. The latter is one of the worst marks in the nation, and SE Missouri State allows 35.6% from behind the 3-point line — ranking No. 293 in the country.
The Golden Eagles have scored 73.3 ppg while allowing 73.2. Tennessee Tech isn’t a great shooting team, hitting just 43.7% from the field, but the Golden Eagles are actually a solid 3-point shooting team at 36.6%.
Defensively, Tennessee Tech has a subpar 44.0% defensive field-goal percentage. You can expect a track meet in Evansville in this championship game.
A total of 150.5 (-110 at DraftKings) seems like a very high number for a conference championship game. However, both of these teams are not very strong defensively, so you can expect plenty of points. Couple that with a SE Missouri State moneyline play for a solid little parlay opportunity.
Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech betting trend to know
The Redhawks are 14-3 ATS in their past 17 neutral-site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for SE Missouri State vs. Tennessee Tech.
Southeast Missouri State vs Tennessee Tech game info
| Conference: | Ohio Valley Conference Championship |
| Location: | Ford Center, Evansville, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, March 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
