SMU vs Oregon Picks and Predictions: SMU Covers In A Shootout

It's a clash of contrasting (effective) offensive styles as 3-point happy Oregon hosts a SMU side that prefers to get its points down low. While the Ducks are college basketball betting favorites, don't write off the Mustangs hanging around.

Last Updated: Nov 12, 2021 10:28 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Emmanuel Bandoumel SMU Mustangs college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The SMU Mustangs will travel to Matthew Knight Arena to take on a powerful Oregon Ducks team ranked 13th in the nation.

SMU started off the season with an 86-62 win over McNeese State, showing off a ton of depth while only shooting 20 threes throughout the game. It is a college basketball betting underdog tonight, however, against an Oregon squad that opened the campaign by taking care of business against Texas Southern, winning 83-66 behind a new core of talent.

Here are our best free college basketball picks and predictions for SMU vs. Oregon on Friday, November 12, with tip-off set for 11:00 p.m. ET.

SMU vs Oregon odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Oregon opened as a 6.5-point home favorite and has since jumped up a half-point to sit at -7. The total, on the other hand, has stayed about the same since opening at 146.5, although some outlets are offering a juiced 145.5, so make sure to line shop. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

SMU vs Oregon predictions

Predictions made on 11/12/2021 at 10:03 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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SMU vs Oregon game info

Location: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR
Date: Friday, November 12, 2021
Tip-off: 11:00 p.m. ET
TV: PAC12 Network

SMU at Oregon betting preview


SMU: None to report.
Oregon: N’Faly Dante C (Out), Franck Kepnang C (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for SMU vs. Oregon.

SMU vs Oregon picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Oregon lost Eugene Omoruyi, Chris Duarte, and four other players from last year’s team — but it hit the recruiting and transfer portal yet again and wound up with some big-time players to help fill those holes.

The Ducks added Quincy Guerrier from Syracuse, De’Vion Harmon from Oklahoma, and Jacob Young from Rutgers. All three are currently starters with this team, along with returning players Will Richardson and Eric Williams, who both averaged double digits last season for Oregon.

That depth is great but in closer games, this team might stick with an eight-man rotation at most. Any one of those top eight players can be the top scorer for this team, making the Ducks extra special moving forward. Center N’Faly Dante is currently out due to injury but he’ll man the middle eventually when he returns and likely knock out one of the starters for that role.

The Ducks beat Texas Southern 83-66 in their first game of the season and took 36 3-point attempts in the process. Oregon will have some poor shooting nights but all in all, this should be a dangerous team from beyond the arc.

On the other hand, SMU knocked off McNeese State in its first game, winning 86-62. The Mustangs are projected to finish near the middle of the American Athletic Conference after losing five key players from last year’s team. The entire SMU roster is full of transfers and returning seniors, however, so with lots of experience, the Mustangs could be dangerous. They’ve got three transfers that averaged in double figures last season with their previous teams, along with Emmanuel Bandoumel and Kendric Davis, who were on SMU last season.

SMU defended the three-ball well against Texas Southern, holding it to 6 for 27 from downtown. It’s going to be hard to defend as well against Oregon, but there’s reason to believe these seniors can get some stops and come away with a cover.

Prediction: SMU +7 (-110)

SMU has five different players that are capable of scoring in double figures on any given night. We saw it all last year and that likely doesn’t change moving forward.

The Mustangs aren’t going to be a 3-point heavy team but they will shoot at a high percentage around the rim. Sometimes that’s better when you’re looking for the Over, as there's a little more offensive reliability and more points per possession.

Meanwhile, Oregon is going to chuck up plenty of threes. At home, there’s a good chance it hits at least 35 percent of them. The Ducks nailed just 12 of 36 from long range in the second half against Texas Southern — and still dropped 47 points.

Give me the Over in this one.

Prediction: Over 146.5 (-110)

Both of these offenses are going to be really good. There are high-level seniors everywhere on the floor, and Oregon is going to shoot plenty of triples — with some of the best 3-point shooters in the Pac-12.

Meanwhile, SMU might try to get higher quality shots inside and around the rim, which should work just as much when it comes to scoring points.

Both teams are coming off solid performances, dropping more than 80 points each in their openers. Both of these defenses will also be better but these offenses are just superior to each opposition’s defense.

Pick: Over 146.5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our SMU vs. Oregon picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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