Rutgers vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offenses Struggle in Scrappy Affair

The No. 1 team in the land faces another test tonight when the Rutgers Scarlet Knights travel to West Lafayette to take on the Purdue Boilermakers.

The Boilermakers remain without a blemish on their record and haven't been tested recently. They are coming on a pair of non-conference "buy games" against opponents such as Florida A&M and New Orleans. Both were blowouts, and both really taught us nothing about this team. Today will change that.

The Knights have had a solid season so far. They have scored an upset win over Indiana, lost by a single point to Ohio State, and been hugely competitive against the best teams on itheir schedule. However, like their opponent, they're coming off a soft spot off the season where they registered back-to-back wins against Coppin State and Bucknell.

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball betting picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Rutgers.

Rutgers vs Purdue best odds

Rutgers vs Purdue picks and predictions

This matchup is compelling for a multitude of reasons. 

Most notable among them is that this is the best defense Purdue has faced all season, and you're getting close to a double-digit spread. The Scarlet Knights have allowed just .78 points per possession this season. That's third best in the country behind highly-ranked teams in Houston and Tennessee. I expect them to make this one competitive, but I lean more toward the Under.

Before we begin with the X and O aspects of this matchup, let's look at the situation. These teams are well-rested, have both played back-to-back games against opponents that they dwarf in talent, and will be ready for a grind-it-out type game.

This means the Boilermakers will get the brute force of Rutgers' physicality, unlike anything they've seen this season. My raw projections don't consider these aspects, but even without that, it's seeing a final total in the 120 to 125 range. That's considerable value on the current numbers that are wildly available. 

Purdue's mean offensive outlet is obviously through Zach Edey. He's well over seven feet and has looked borderline unstoppable throughout the season. It's why he's a frontrunner for the National Player of the Year award, and Purdue has a shot at reaching just its third Final Four in school history.

Rutgers can do enough of an excellent job on him to make the Boilermakers look elsewhere for offense. it'll sometimes bring doubles to force turnovers and create havoc, but overall it's just been strong in the post.

We've got good enough data to say that with confidence, and the Knights have seen some talented bigs already. With that in mind, they currently allow just .75 points per possession on post-ups. It's the fourth best in the Big Ten — a conference littered with talented defenses.

On the other end of the floor, the most consistent question will continue for Rutgers: can it find enough offense? KenPom grades its offensive efficiency at slightly below average relevant to the rest of the country. If it had a slightly above-average offense, I'd consider them a nice dark horse Final Four contender.

All of the other pieces are there. In this game, its lack of guards is going to hurt. Since the post is limited when you play Purdue, you need guards to beat its man off the dribble and give buckets in isolation possessions. The Scarlet Knights don't have that, or they at least have yet to unlock it this season.

As a team, they're shooting around 33% from the field in isolation situations, and point guard Derek Simpson has shown no consistent scoring ability here. This leads to a clogged paint and Rutgers running its offense through its bigs. That's a task that is significantly tougher against Zach Edey.

I feel good about the total and would take it down to 128. The tempo should be slow, and both teams won't have easy paths to offense.

My best bet: Under 131.5 (-109 at Barstool Sportsbook)

Rutgers vs Purdue spread analysis

Whether it's Rutgers spread or moneyline, it's a good idea to have it on the side here. It can win this game, and I believe it happens more often than the 22% implied probability on FanDuel.

The Knights are going to Mackey Arena at a good time. It's never an easy place to play and won't be tonight, but with students still away for the holiday break, it's unlikely it will be at full force tonight.

Rutgers' defense will make life difficult for Purdue and put more of a load on the Boilermakers' guards to make plays. They have yet to have to do a ton of that this season. Again, I'm a broken record here, but can Rutgers find enough offense? Can it get Zach Edey in early foul trouble with its physical post play? Answering these questions will go a long way to determining a winner.

Purdue was grabbing about 60% of the money as of publication, according to our Covers Consenus.

Rutgers vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

We're on the Under here for various reasons. Whether it's situational, projection-based, or X's and O's — everything lines up for this to be a low-scoring affair. We're seeing a game with possessions in the low to mid-60s and both teams barely cracking 60 points. If Zach Edey gets into foul trouble, this game could be really ugly.

Remember, Rutgers has already played a game with a total of just 88 points this season and doesn't mind doing it again.

The trends of the Under are strong here. For Rutgers, its games have gone Under four consecutive times on the road and four straight on the road against a team with a winning record. For Purdue, its games have gone Under in eight of its last ten games at Mackey Arena. So here's to cheering for no points and an ugly basketball game. 

Rutgers vs Purdue betting trend to know

The Under is 19-6 in Purdue's last 25 games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Rutgers vs. Purdue.

Rutgers vs Purdue game info

Rutgers vs Purdue key injuries

Rutgers: No injuries to report.
Purdue: No injuries to report.

Pages related to this topic