The No. 8 ranked Purdue Boilermakers face off against the Penn State Nittany Lions in NCAA basketball action tonight.
The Boilermakers have won the last eight meetings between these conference foes, and despite being short underdogs tonight, my Purdue vs. Penn State predictions expect them to prevail again.
Here are my free college basketball picks for this Big Ten showdown on December 5.
Purdue vs Penn State prediction
My best bet
Purdue moneyline (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
The Penn State Nittany Lions have an identical 7-1 record as the Purdue Boilermakers. That said, they rank just 295th in strength of schedule, while the Boilermakers have played against the 14th toughest slate.
The Nittany Lions have faced just one team currently in the Top 100 of the KenPom ratings in Clemson (ranked 22nd) and lost 75-67 on a neutral site.
Purdue has faced three teams in the Top 25 at KenPom (Alabama, Marquette, and Mississippi) and beat two of them while also defeating No. 71 N.C. State.
Mike Rhoades has brought the disruptive ball pressure to PSU that helped him succeed at VCU. However, the Boilermakers have an experienced backcourt and do a good job of taking care of the ball.
Purdue is also the sixth-best 3-point shooting team in the country (42.1 3PT%), and it's 13th in the country in post-up efficiency per ShotQualityBets. PSU is outside the Top 250 when it comes to allowing high quality threes while ranking just 338th at defending post-up plays.
While the Nittany Lions are at home, the Bryce Jordan Center isn't a particularly difficult venue for visitors and the Boilermakers have won in their last three trips here.
Purdue is a short underdog here, but KenPom and BartTorvik are projecting a 1-point victory for the Boilermakers, and I'm expecting their experience and chemistry to lead to a win.
Purdue vs Penn State same-game parlay
Purdue moneyline
Trey Kaufman-Renn Over 19.5 points
Over 149.5
I mentioned PSU's struggles to defend post-up plays, and that will be exposed by Kaufman-Renn, who ranks in the Top 20th percentile in post-up frequency and efficiency.
The junior forward has averaged 21.4 ppg in his last five games and dropped more than 20 points vs. Alabama, N.C. State, and Mississippi.
I expect the Boilermakers to win due to their offense, which ranks eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency. That said, I also expect PSU to fill up the hoop against a Purdue squad that has struggled to defend at the rim and in transition.
After all, the Nittany Lions are 36th in the country in transition efficiency while attacking the rim at the seventh-highest frequency.
When you also consider PSU is 30th in the country in adjusted tempo and the strong Over trends of both teams, this should be a high-scoring game.
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Purdue vs Penn State odds
Purdue vs Penn State live odds
Purdue vs Penn State opening odds
- Spread: Purdue +1.5 | Penn State -1.5
- Moneyline: Purdue +110 | Penn State -130
- Over/Under: Over 149.5 | Under 149.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Purdue vs Penn State betting trend to know
The Boilermakers have covered the first-half spread in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.45 Units / 31% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Purdue vs. Penn State.
How to watch Purdue vs Penn State
| Location: | Bryce Jordan Center, College Township, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-5-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Purdue vs Penn State key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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