Purdue vs Indiana Picks and Predictions: Hoosiers Ride Defense, Home Crowd

The Purdue Boilermakers will have a tough test against the Indiana Hoosiers in a Big Ten matchup on Thursday, January 20. Purdue has struggled in road environments previously, although the Boilermakers only have one loss on the road this season. 

Purdue also needed double overtime to put away home Illinois on Monday after leading mostly the entire game. Meanwhile, Indiana hasn’t lost a home game all season, with wins over Ohio State and Minnesota.

Will Indiana upset Purdue as home underdogs? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Purdue vs. Indiana. 

Purdue vs Indiana odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Purdue opened up as a 2.5-point favorite but has quickly jumped up to a 3.5-point favorite on the road. The total, however, has seen slight movement down after opening at 145. Most books are holding a 144 while some are starting to move to 143.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Purdue vs Indiana predictions

• Prediction: Indiana +3.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 144.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Indiana +3.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/20/2022 at 8:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Purdue vs Indiana game info

• Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Bloomington, IN
• Date: Thursday, January 20, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Purdue at Indiana betting preview

Injuries

Purdue: Brian Waddell F (Out).
Indiana: Logan Duncomb C (Questionable), Khristian Lander G (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Hoosiers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Purdue vs. Indiana.

Purdue vs Indiana picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

I say this all the time: It’s extremely hard to win road games in the Big Ten. Purdue has been able to grind out most games, on the road, this year, but a lot of the time, it hasn’t always looked pretty. 

Purdue lost to Rutgers on the road, struggled to put away Penn State, on the road, and went to double overtime against Illinois, before finally putting them away, again on the road. 

The Boilermakers are a stellar offense. Purdue is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 58.5% while turning the ball over just 16.9% of the time. The Boilermakers dominate the offensive glass and continue to shoot at a ridiculous clip. 

Purdue has hit 40.3% of threes and 57.1% of twos. Both of those numbers are Top 10 in the nation. But Indiana has the defense that can get stops. Indiana, on the other hand, has held opponents to a 42.2% effective field goal percentage while limiting teams to 29.4% from three and 41% from inside the arc. 

Indiana won’t force many turnovers, but the Hoosiers have been terrific on the glass, limiting opponents to 23.8% of offensive rebounds. 

Last night’s game between Rutgers and Iowa really underscored the importance of defense, especially at home. Rutgers held Iowa to under 50 points last night and Indiana has the potential to similarly hinder Purdue with its defense. 

On the other hand, Indiana is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 54% and has hit 34.6% of threes and 55.1% of twos. Indiana will turn the ball over more than you’d like, but Purdue isn’t a huge threat when it comes to forcing turnovers. If Indiana can limit those TOs and get more shots up, the Hoosiers will be in great shape in this game. 

This game should go down to the wire, so I’ll go ahead and grab the home team against the spread. 

Prediction: Indiana +3.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

If Indiana is going to win this game, they’re going to have to defend for a full 40 minutes and stay in sync on the defensive end throughout the game. 

So, there’s no other way to go than by taking the Under in this spot. Indiana, again, will have to make this game similar to how Rutgers played Iowa last night. And I think they’ll do that. So, the point total should be lower in this one.

Prediction: Under 144.5 (-110)

Best bet

I love taking home underdogs in these spots. Indiana is capable of beating any team in the country with a special defense this year. The offense could sometimes be inconsistent, and turnovers usually don’t favor the Hoosiers. 

However, against Purdue, Indiana will turn the ball over less and should be able to feed off the building’s energy for a very good defensive performance. 

I’m riding with Indiana tonight!

Pick: Indiana +3.5 (-110)

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