Ohio State vs West Virginia Odds, Picks and Predictions: Thornton Throws His Weight Around

It's the last matchup of 2023 for both the Ohio State Buckeyes and the West Virginia Mountaineers, who meet at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on Saturday night.

West Virginia has struggled much of the season, and it hasn't gotten any better lately. The Mountaineers have an interim coach doing his best, but his inexperience has recently been shown as West Virginia has lost two of its last three games. Those have all come against non-Power Five opponents, and two have been at home. There's a genuine concern for what things will look like going forward this season when the Eers get into conference play.

Meanwhile, Ohio State has quietly had a solid start to the season. The Buckeyes enter this game on back-to-back wins and victories in four of its last five. Its latest victory came against New Orleans and was won in blowout fashion.

What's the best bet in this one? Find out when we look at the college basketball odds in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Saturday, December 30.

Ohio State vs West Virginia best odds

Ohio State vs West Virginia picks and predictions

Even before you look at the analysis of any game with West Virginia in the future, I have a notion to bet against them. It's not any fault of their own, either. 

Their likely Hall of Fame head coach made an absurdly reckless decision in the offseason, and they are paying the cost. Now they have an interim head man in Josh Eilert, who could have a bright future ahead of him but doesn't have the experience. That makes situations like this even more complicated than they otherwise would be. Ohio State has more talent than the Mountaineers, and West Virginia is up against it. I'm taking Ohio State to cover -9.5 as my best bet. 

Looking at the game on paper, there are a few prime mismatches that the Buckeyes will take advantage of. Among them is trying to figure out how West Virginia scores against such a stout defense when shooting has been a significant issue for this team in the young season.

West Virginia will enter this matchup with an eFG% of 46.5%, which places them in the mid 280s of college basketball. They'll be facing a defense that ranks just outside the Top 50 in the country in the corresponding category. West Virginia gets most of its offense via transition opportunities, and you won't get those against Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been the best in the nation in transition defense, holding opponents to 36% shooting. West Virginia should be able to find decent success in the post, but I wonder if any of its interior players can carry the load they'll need. 

On the other side of the ball, I like Ohio State's chances to execute early and often in the halfcourt. West Virginia has had repetitive breakdowns defending spot-up shooters. It's one of the worst in the Big 12 when it comes to defending them and has allowed .95 points per possession when defending them. Ohio State has a significant amount of shooters on its team, too. Jamison Battle, Bruce Thornton, and Roddy Gayle Jr. are all averaging over a point per possession on spot-up sets and have shot an average of around 50% against them. The Buckeyes could have a barrage from 3s similar to what some of West Virginia's opponents have done to it this season.

Take Ohio State to cover this number. After factoring in an effective homecourt advantage with this game taking place in nearby Cleveland, I projected a line of -12.5, so I see a massive edge. There's a significant coaching edge, but beyond that, West Virginia still needs to show the ability to defend like they'll need to. Outside of that, West Virginia will have to be nearly perfect in the halfcourt to stay around, and that's a lot to ask.

My best bet: Ohio State -9.5 (-110 at bet365)

Ohio State vs West Virginia same-game parlay

Ohio State -9.5

Bruce Thornton to score 15+ points

+152 at FanDuel

We'll keep this two-leg SGP straightforward. 

We're pairing Bruce Thornton to score 15 or more points with our best bet. He's been quiet the last few games, going below this threshold in three of his last four overall, but's he's averaging 17.4 points per game on the year and cleared this bar in six of his first 10 games of the year.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ohio State vs West Virginia spread and Over/Under analysis

I'm taking Ohio State to cover the spread here. It isn't easy to imagine many scenarios where West Virginia keeps this close, and that task gets more challenging at a neutral site.

These teams have played each other three times over the past 10 seasons, and West Virginia has dominated the series. They've won all three but ironically failed to cover as favorites in any of those games. Coming into this matchup, West Virginia has covered in just two of its last seven games.

I lean to the Under of 147 here. 

It's going to be difficult for West Virginia to execute in the halfcourt, given where its strength lies. It wants to create some accessible transition scoring opportunities, and those don't exist against Ohio State. On the other side of the ball, while I do like the Buckeyes to have success, some of it is jump-shot reliant. That makes it difficult to count on them to carry the scoring load fully.

Ohio State vs West Virginia betting trend to know

Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in nine of their last 16 away games (+3.15 Units / 16% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. West Virginia.

Ohio State vs West Virginia game info

Ohio State vs West Virginia key injuries

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