Ohio State vs Illinois Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Fighting Illini Put Buckeyes to Sleep

This may be the end of the road for the Ohio State Buckeyes in a season that started with significant promise only to result in a midseason firing of a head coach who has already landed a new job. A loss would kill any lingering Buckeyes’ dreams of being in the March Madness odds.

The Illinois Fighting Illini have no such worries, currently listed on the four-seed line by Bracket Matrix, but they could conceivably move up in the NCAA Tournament seeding with a strong weekend — particularly after both Duke and Creighton lost on Thursday night.

That may be motivation enough to trust the Illini as this spread has shrunk a point further than it should have, a thought I'll delve into in my free college basketball picks for Ohio State vs Illinois on March 15.

For more NCAAB coverage, be sure to check out our Big Ten Conference Tournament bracket, as well our Conference Tournament odds pages!

Ohio State vs Illinois best odds

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Ohio State vs Illinois picks and predictions

Ohio State is built on one premise, a strong inside defense. The Buckeyes don't do much else well, certainly nothing else notably well, but that strong inside defense has been enough to revive their season.

Since Chris Holtmann was fired on Valentine’s Day, Ohio State has gone 6-1 both outright and against the spread, including yesterday’s 90-78 win vs. Iowa. In that stretch, opponents shot 43.7% inside the arc, even better than the conference-long mark of 47.2%, which ranked No. 3 in the Big Ten.

In many respects, it's a logical approach. Make the easy shots hard — the Buckeyes blocked 12.2% of opponent shots in Big Ten play — and trust college basketball players aren't good enough to make the hard shots on a regular basis. That’s decent defense.

But that might be the entire Ohio State profile. Opponents shoot 3-pointers well against the Bucckeyes and get to the free throw line often. Blocking a lot of shots will also inevitably lead to a lot of free throws allowed. Aggression giveth, aggression taketh.

Offensively, Ohio State — look, there’s no great way to say this, but the only thing OSU does well offensively is make 78.5% of its free throws. More than anything, the Buckeyes shoot 3-pointers badly and rarely, 32.8% on 26.9% of their field goal attempts.

So if the only thing Ohio State can be trusted to do is defend the interior, the obvious question is, can Illinois score otherwise?

Yes.

The Illini offense is best described as consistent. Its hallmarks are limited turnovers, plenty of offensive rebounds, and a lot of free throw attempts. Those are all things that set a remarkably high floor, hence Illinois’s offense being ranked No. 4 in the country by Ken Pomeroy.

That kind of relentless offense should be trusted in the early rounds of a tournament in particular. The Illini should avoid any extended dry spells, especially since those strengths coincide with Ohio State defensive weaknesses.

Limited turnovers? The Buckeyes forced turnovers at the fourth-worst rate in the Big Ten. Plenty of offensive rebounds? Despite Ohio State’s interior size, it allowed offensive boards at a middling rate, another negative result of blocking a lot of shots, as that pulls good rebounders in the opposite direction of the rim. A lot of free throw attempts? Again, the Buckeyes foul, a lot.

Jake Diebler has done an excellent job as Ohio State’s interim head coach, redeeming some of this season, but a one-trick pony like the Buckeyes should struggle to stay within a few buckets of a top-tier team like Illinois today.

My best bet: Illinois -4.5 (-109 at BetRivers)

Ohio State vs Illinois same-game parlay

Illinois -5

Terrence Shannon Jr. Over 19.5 points

Quincy Guerrier Over 8.5 points

+425 at DraftKings

Deciding on these two player props for my same-game parlay was easier than usual. Ohio State fouls a lot? Who on Illinois’s roster shoots the most free throws? That would be senior Terrence Shannon Jr. at 8.1 per game. Shannon splits his shots between the interior and beyond the arc, but remember the Buckeyes also give up a healthy 3-point percentage, with Big Ten opponents hitting 37.5% of those looks.

Shannon should either be hot from deep or driving to the rim and getting to the free throw line. Regardless, points will come.

Ohio State gives up a lot of offensive rebounds? Well, that’s not entirely true. The Buckeyes are average in that regard, but average will not be good enough to slow down Illinois’s pursuit of those boards — particularly not Guerrier’s.

The 6-foot-8 senior tracks down more than 8% of offensive rebounds when he is on the court. Plenty of them end up back on the rim, given he enjoys a 56.2 shooting percentage on 2-point attempts. Furthermore, Guerrier draws fouls at a strong rate when he is on the court, even if he makes only 58.5% of those attempts.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Ohio State vs Illinois spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has dabbled at favoring Illinois by five, but for the most part, it has spent Friday at -4.5. That is, quite simply, 1.5 points short of what it should be.

The Illini were favored by just 2.5 at Ohio State in late January, winning by 12. Put that game on a neutral court and it would have been about -6. Since then, the Buckeyes have played better, but their advanced rankings have not skyrocketed.

Yesterday’s track meet against Iowa may have sapped Ohio State a touch, certainly its bigger post defenders like Jamison Battle, Zed Key, and Felix Okpara.

This total opened at 154 or even 154.5, depending on your sportsbook, ticking down to 153 early on Friday. That Jan. 30 meeting had a total of 146.5, this jump rather odd when realizing Ohio State’s defense before Holtmann’s firing ranked No. 95 in barttorvik's adjusted defensive efficiency metrics and has ranked No. 17 since — 6.3 points better per 100 possessions.

Illinois’s defense has struggled in that same stretch, but given how apathetic the Buckeyes are on offense, that should be of less consequence.

Ohio State vs Illinois betting trend to know

The Under has cashed in four of Ohio State’s last five games as underdogs. Find more college basketball betting trends for Ohio State vs. Illinois.

Ohio State vs Illinois game info

Ohio State vs Illinois key injuries

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