The No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers are set to host the Northwestern Wildcats in Big Ten basketball action tonight. The Wildcats knocked off the Boilermakers when they were the No. 1 ranked team in the nation in December which was the second straight season they've pulled off that feat.
Oddsmakers expect the Boilermakers to get revenge today with college basketball odds having them installed as 12.5-point home favorites. Here are my free college basketball picks for Northwestern vs. Purdue on January 31.
Northwestern vs Purdue best odds
Northwestern vs Purdue picks and predictions
The Northwestern Wildcats edged the Purdue Boilermakers 92-88 in an overtime thriller in December and also upset them 64-58 last season, with both games taking place in Evanston.
However, they were unable to slow down Purdue center Zach Edey in either contest. While the rest of the Boilermakers shot just 27% from the floor last February, Edey went 7-for-10 and dropped 24 points en route to winning the National Player of the Year award.
It was a similar story this season with Edey going 10 of 17 from the field for 35 points, but his teammates shooting just 37.2% from the field and 26% from the arc.
This is a solid Northwestern squad but it doesn't match up well against Edey. While the Wildcats have a true center in Matthew Nicholson he lacks the athleticism to defend well and averages a modest 20.9 minutes per game. The rest of Northwestern's frontcourt doesn't have the length and mobility to slow down Edey, which we saw in December when Nicholson got into foul trouble early.
Edey is the odds-on betting favorite to repeat as National Player of the Year and averages 23.0 points and 11.4 rebounds per game on 62.7% shooting. He's scored at least 26 points in four of his last five games.
Somewhat surprisingly, the only contest during that span where he went below that number came against Michigan's Charmin soft defense, but he logged a modest 26 minutes in that blowout victory and also had only six free throw attempts.
The 7-foot-4, 300-lbs big man averages 10.2 free throw attempts per game and took a whopping 20 attempts from the line in that previous meeting against Northwestern. The Wildcats sit outside the Top 300 in fouls per defensive play (23.5%) with that number ticking up to 25.1% on the road.
Expect them to struggle against Edey in the paint and send him to the charity stripe enough for him to go Over his points total here.
My best bet: Zach Edey Over 22.5 points (-125 at DraftKings)
Northwestern vs Purdue same-game parlay
Zach Edey Over 22.5 points
Over 142
Fletcher Loyer Over 1.5 made threes
33% boost available
The Wildcats play at an extremely slow pace, but the total still seems too low here when you consider they're significantly better on offense (36th in adjusted offensive efficiency) than defense (83rd in adjusted defensive efficiency).
Keep in mind these teams combined for 152 points in regulation when they met up in December, and that was with Purdue going just 5-for-19 from long range. On the season, the Boilermakers are sixth in the country in 3-point percentage (40%) while the Wildcats are 299th in opponent 3-point percentage (36.1%) so expect some positive regression there.
That also makes it likely guard Fletcher Loyer will go Over his 3-pointers made prop of 1.5. Loyer is second on the team in 3-pointers made (39) and is shooting a sizzling 42.4% from long range. He's knocked down at least a pair of treys in 10 of his last 14 games, including the previous meeting in Evanston where he went 3-for-5 from deep.
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Northwestern vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis
The Boilermakers opened as 12.5-point home favorites with the O/U at 143.5. Money has come in on the home side who are now at -13.5 while the total has ticked down to 142.
Purdue has gone 19-2 this season with an average scoring margin of +16.1 ppg. It's a perfect 10-0 at home with a scoring margin of +27.0 ppg, but oddsmakers might be setting its spreads a bit too high lately with the Boilers going 1-3 ATS in their last four games at Mackey Arena.
The Wildcats are coming off an 83-58 rout of Ohio State, and while they are unranked, they sit fourth in the conference with a 6-3 record while having an overall record of 15-5. They've been vulnerable on the road going 1-3 SU and ATS in their four road games in conference play.
Northwestern vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Over has cashed in 16 of Purdue's last 22 games at home (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Northwestern vs. Purdue.
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Northwestern vs Purdue game info
| Location: | Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BTN |
Northwestern vs Purdue key injuries
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