Michigan vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wolverines Start Strong

The Michigan Wolverines head to West Lafayette to take on the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers in Big Ten action tonight. The Wolverines have stumbled to a 7-11 record and it will be extremely tough for them to knock off the Boilermakers who are 17-2 and have yet to lose at home this season.

However, it will be easier for them to cover the massive spread in front of them with college basketball odds opening with the Boilermakers as 17.5-point home favorites. 

Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan vs Purdue on January 23. 

Michigan vs Purdue best odds

Michigan vs Purdue picks and predictions

On the surface, this might seem like an obvious spot to back the home side regardless of the massive spread. The Purdue Boilermakers have excelled on both ends of the floor and are coming off double-digit wins at tough road venues. Now, they return home, where they are 9-0 with an average scoring margin of +26.4 points per game. 

Meanwhile, the floundering Michigan Wolverines are just 3-9 straight up and 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 and are coming off an ugly loss at home to Illinois. In addition, the Wolverines will be without point guard Dug McDaniel who leads the team in points (17.4) and assists (5.1) per game and is being held out of road contests for academic reasons. Since that suspension was announced, McDaniel has missed one game, a trip to Maryland two weeks ago where the Wolverines scored just 57 points. 

All of those factors considered, this spread might be too large. McDaniel's absence is baked into this line and might be too generous when you consider backup PG Jaelin Llewellyn is no slouch. Llewellyn was a first-team All-Ivy League selection at Princeton and showed promise with Michigan last season before tearing his ACL in December. 

In eight games this season, he has logged just 92 minutes, but 33 of those came in that contest against Maryland where he scored nine points with four rebounds, three assists, and a pair of steals.

Llewellyn isn't McDaniel but he's also not as much of a dropoff as many think. In addition, while the Wolverines have struggled defensively, they've been efficient on offense, shooting a sizzling 37.8% from deep.

Purdue's usually stingy defense has been unlocked by teams with good spacing and outside shooting — which is what this Michigan squad does best. The Boilermakers also rank outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate and that lack of defensive pressure will help Llewellyn set up this offense. 

While the Wolverines are 3-7 in their last 10 games, they led at halftime in seven of those and trailed by just a single point in two others. In fact, while they're coming off a 15-point loss to Illinois, they were down by just one at the half. Though they lost by seven points to Maryland without McDaniel, they were actually up 33-21 at the half. Back Michigan on the first-half spread.

My best bet: Michigan first half +11.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Michigan vs Purdue same-game parlay

Michigan first half +10.5

Olivier Nkamhoua Over 15.5 points

Zach Edey Over 12.5 rebounds

+575 at DraftKings

With McDaniel out of the lineup, the Wolverines need a big performance from Olivier Nkamhoua if they want to keep things close. Nkamhoua is second on the team in scoring with 17.0 ppg and has dropped at least 16 points in seven of his last eight games. The stretch PF should excel against a Purdue side that ranks 299th at defending catch-and-shoot threes and 335th at defending off-the-dribble threes per ShotQuality Bets.

The Boilermakers are led by Zach Edey, who is the odds-on favorite to be named the National Player of the Year for the second straight season and averages 23.3 points and 11.5 rebounds per game while shooting 63% from the floor. 

The 7-foor-4 center has been even more dominant on the glass lately, pulling down at least 14 rebounds in three straight games and averaging 17.3 rpg over that span. He should control the glass against a Michigan team that has a rebounding rate of just 47.9% over its last three games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Michigan vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread opened with the Boilermakers installed as massive 17.5-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 152.5. Both lines have seen modest movement with the spread growing by half a point and the total ticking down ever-so-slightly to 152. 

The Boilermakers have been the most dominant team in the country despite facing the toughest schedule but they are just 0-3 ATS in their last three games. The Boilermakers have been especially efficient on offense where Edey is practically unstoppable down low and has been surrounded by shooters with Purdue 11th in the country in three-point percentage (39.3%). 

It's been a rough season for the Wolverines who have struggled on the court and away. Head coach missed Juwan Howard missed the start of the season while recovering from surgery and there were reports of a heated altercation between Howard and another coach at practice. 

The road suspension of McDaniel only adds to the drama with the team's leading scorer set to miss six road games but available for home contests.  

Michigan vs Purdue betting trend to know

Michigan has hit the first half moneyline in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Purdue.

Michigan vs Purdue game info

Michigan vs Purdue key injuries

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