The Michigan State Spartans will get their second chance to knock off the top-ranked Purdue Boilermakers on Sunday afternoon in an important Big Ten rematch at Mackey Arena.
Michigan State has lost three of its past five games and now sits at 14-7 overall and 6-4 in the conference. Meanwhile, Purdue has won seven consecutive games, successfully regaining its No. 1 ranking with a 20-1 overall record.
Find out where the betting edge lies in our college basketball picks and predictions for Michigan State vs. Purdue on January 29.
Michigan State vs Purdue best odds
Michigan State vs Purdue picks and predictions
Both teams rely on their defense and ball control to get their victories. Michigan State ranks 74th in the nation allowing 65.6 points per game. However, the Spartans only average 69.3 points per contest themselves, which puts them outside the Top-200 in the country.
On the other side, Purdue comes in at 11th in the nation, limiting teams to 60.3 points per contest. However, the Boilermakers' offense has struggled, coming into this matchup putting up only 73.6 points per game.
In the first matchup between these two teams on January 16, the Boilermakers snuck out a 64-63 win on the road in East Lansing. The Spartans were without Malik Hall in that game, but he'll be suiting up on Sunday. Hall returned on Thursday against Iowa to play 25 minutes and tally 11 points, three rebounds, and four assists. Michigan State is now 8-2 with the senior forward in the lineup and just 7-6 without him.
In the 10 games with Hall, the Spartans averaged 71.5 points per game and allowed 64.5 points per contest. He is a massive difference to their offense and will be vital against this stout Purdue defense.
Despite the Boilermakers' offensive woes, they get to the free-throw line at a high rate. Purdue averages 20.3 attempts per game, which ranks 67th in the nation.
With Hall back in the lineup for the Spartans and both teams showing great offensive efficiency, I like the Over on this low total. Michigan State allowed 64 points to this team just a few weeks ago despite being at home, and Purdue is likely to reach 70 in this meeting.
My best bet: Over 130 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Michigan State vs Purdue spread analysis
Purdue is a great team, but it's only 8-11-2 against the spread this season. The Boilermakers tend to win their games by grinding it out and using efficiency, which isn't necessarily the greatest formula for a blowout. This game could be a similar story.
Michigan State is excellent at covering spreads as underdogs. The Spartans are 2-1 ATS in the rare instances where they have been underdogs of more than five points. They were also four-point underdogs in the first matchup against Purdue and covered.
The Spartans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two programs. The Boilermakers are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games and 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 home games against a team with a winning percentage on the road of less than .400.
With Hall back in the lineup, Michigan State should be able to play solid enough offense to keep this game close. I don’t love the Spartans to pull off the upset, but they will not go down easy. Give me Michigan State to cover on the road.
Michigan State vs Purdue Over/Under analysis
These two teams do not typically hit Overs, but their game totals are usually much higher than this. The Spartans have only had four games with this low of an O/U, and those contests have gone 3-1 in favor of the Over.
Purdue has scored 70 or more points in each of their last five home games against Michigan State, and all five of those matchups went Over this current total of 130 points. I expect this game to follow those trends as we witness a higher-scoring game than expected.
Michigan State vs Purdue betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in the Spartans' last five Sunday games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan State vs. Purdue.
Michigan State vs Purdue game info
|Location:||Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, IN|
|Date:||Sunday, January 29, 2023|
|Tip-off:||12:15 p.m. ET|