Big Ten basketball on a Sunday afternoon is a great way to begin the New Year, with this matchup featuring the 10-3 Maryland Terrapins and 7-5 Michigan Wolverines.
Maryland is 1-1 in conference play and enters this contest looking to extend a two-game winning streak. Michigan is off to a 1-0 conference start and hoping to end a two-game losing streak after being upended at home by Central Michigan.
Who will win this Big Ten conference tilt? Read our college basketball picks and predictions for Maryland vs. Michigan below to find out.
Maryland vs Michigan best odds
Maryland vs Michigan picks and predictions
The Maryland Terrapins were a Top-25 side, but their three losses to KenPom-ranked teams Wisconsin (No. 40), Tennessee (No. 3), and UCLA (No. 4) ended their stay as a nationally-ranked team. With that said, getting them at near pick'em is the right play this afternoon.
Maryland has played a better-than-average schedule, with their three losses coming by a total of 35 points. Aside from 3-point shooting (31.7%), this team does basically everything well.
They take care of the ball and hit the boards with the 60th-best effective field goal shooting percentage in the nation. The Terrapins shoot 57% from the field while knocking down 71% from the charity stripe.
Michigan hasn’t had the same success and is coming off an embarrassing home loss to Central Michigan. The Wolverines have played tough against the best teams in the country, with their three losses to KenPom Top-25 teams coming by a combined 10 points.
The Wolverines have one of the lowest turnover percentages in the college game but don’t shoot the ball well from inside the arc (50%) and have one of the country's lowest offensive rebounding rates.
Marland is the better team and should win this game. The Terrapins do the little things very well, and I expect them to continue that trend against the Wolverines. Maryland has the edge in every major offensive category except for 3three-point shooting, and the Terrapins allow a stingy 28% from downtown.
The Terrapins are 9-4 against the spread this season with a length and experience advantage in addition to a better bench. They'll win the rebounding battle and beat the Wolverines down the stretch at the charity stripe. It will be physical, but Maryland should come out on top.
My best bet: Maryland moneyline (-105 at BetVictor)
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Maryland vs Michigan spread analysis
Maryland senior guard Jahmir Young is having a good season but scored just three points against UCLA. He won’t have any issues getting his 14 points per night against a soft Michigan's conference-worst scoring defense.
The Terps allow the fifth-fewest points per game in the Big Ten, meeting a Michigan side coming off a horrible home loss where they shot just 27% from inside the arc and scored 61 points against Mid-American Conference CMU.
Michigan junior center Hunter Dickinson is a pre-season All-American but has yet to dominate a game. He hasn’t recorded a double-double in any of his last five and is shooting 54.5% from the field and 38% from beyond the circle. Dickenson hasn’t had much scoring help outside of guards Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin, resulting in a seventh-best conference scoring average.
Michigan doesn’t score enough to make up for its lousy defense, and it's hard to back an inconsistent team like the Wolverines against an experienced side like Maryland.
Maryland vs Michigan Over/Under analysis
College basketball odds have this total at 145.5 points and I’m leaning toward the Under.
Both teams play above league-average tempo, and each offense takes excellent care of the ball. They’ll have enough possessions for a high-scoring game, but is there enough offensive firepower to take advantage of this? I say no.
Michigan relies too heavily on the triple and now faces one of the best teams in the country at defending the 3-ball. The Wolverines don’t hit the offensive glass and I don’t expect them to shoot 34% or better from downtown against the Terrapins.
Maryland is an awful shooting 3-point team and relies on taking the ball to the cup. They are excellent at drawing fouls but average at making their free throws.
The Terrapins are 4-9 to the Under and we should see yet another one here.
Maryland vs Michigan betting trend to know
The Under is 6-1 in Maryland's last seven games overall. Find more College basketball betting trends for Maryland vs. Michigan.
Maryland vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Maryland vs Michigan key injuries
Maryland: No key injuries to report.
Michigan: Jaelin Llewellyn G (Out).
