LSU vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Tshiebwe, the Rebounding Machine

It’s been a long time since LSU played a true road game — 304 days, in fact. That will change tonight when the Tigers travel to face Kentucky in their SEC home opener. The Bayou Bengals are coming off a stunning three-point win over a Top-10 Arkansas squad, while the Wildcats defeated their rivals Louisville handily over the weekend.

But it hasn’t been all good news for the Wildcats, as they dropped out of the AP poll for the first time in two years after getting trounced last week by Missouri. It was their fourth defeat in five games against Power Five teams this year and it had many fans frustrated with coach John Calipari. 

A win over LSU would give the fan base some much-needed positivity heading into a tough stretch of games, while a win for the Tigers would provide them with validation after a weak opening schedule. Can they go into Rupp Arena and pull off the upset? We break that down in our LSU vs. Kentucky college basketball picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 3.

LSU vs Kentucky best odds

LSU vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Oscar Tshiebwe surprised many when he announced he would be returning to Kentucky after sweeping every National Player of the Year award in 2021-22. The former West Virginia transfer was a dominant force on the glass and a double-double machine, and that has carried over to this season. 

Through his 11 games this season, Tshiebwe has recorded eight double-doubles, and only twice has he failed to haul in at least 12 rebounds. Three of his last four games have seen him get 14 or more boards, including a 19-rebound performance last week in the 89-75 loss to Missouri and a 14-board day against Louisville. 

In two of their three games so far this year against Power Five teams, LSU has allowed its opponent’s leading rebounder to grab double-digit boards. The other — against Wake Forest — saw the team leader grab eight, but the Tigers also allowed a bench player for the Demon Deacons to get 11. 

Now, LSU must contend with Tshiebwe and a Wildcats team ranked second in all of college basketball with an offensive rebound rate of almost 40%, with that number rising to 43% at home this season. Kentucky has averaged 15.2 second-chance points over their last 10 games, mainly thanks to Tshiebwe’s 5.64 offensive rebounds per game — the best mark in the country. 

The Tigers rank 143rd in opponent offensive rebound rate this season at 25.7%, and they allowed Arkansas to grab nearly one of every three missed attempts at that end of the floor. The Hogs were averaging less than 26% prior to that contest. 

None of LSU’s top four rebounders stand taller than 6-foot-10, meaning there’s no height advantage over Tshiebwe. Given their struggles to rebound at the defensive end of the floor, I find it difficult to see how the Tigers keep Oscar from reaching his season average of 13.6. Take the nation’s best rebounder to have another strong night on the glass. 

My best bet: Oscar Tshiebwe Over 13.5 rebounds (-130 at FanDuel)

LSU vs Kentucky spread analysis

Part of Kentucky’s issues this season — especially against good teams — is its inability to consistently perform in the half-court. Kentucky thrives in getting second-chance baskets and getting easy buckets in transition. However, when forced to operate in the half-court, the Wildcats can stagnate. This is especially true if they’re not getting outside shooting from players like Cason Wallace, and if point guard Sahvir Wheeler is unable to get to the basket. 

Much like Missouri’s Kobe Brown, who dropped 30 on the Wildcats, this could be a game where a dynamic threat like LSU’s KJ Williams could really hurt them. His 18.5 points per game are second-best in the conference, and he’s in a perfect position to capitalize on Kentucky’s inconsistent play at power forward. 

While it’s been a long time since they played on the road, the Tigers have done well against the spread on neutral courts this season. They’ve covered in three of their four games away from home while covering just twice in nine contests at home. Last year, they ended the season with a 5-1 ATS run on the road. They’ve also covered in four of their last five games with a winning record.

Kentucky, on the other hand, has struggled immensely. The Wildcats have failed to cover in any of their last five games against a winning team. They’ve also not covered any of their last seven games, including their last six games at Rupp. 

That’s likely why the Covers Consensus has LSU getting 74% of the action, with people all over the fact the Tigers are getting 10 points. Kentucky also struggles at the free-throw line, shooting under 60% from the stripe in their past six games. The Tigers excel defensively and should be able to keep within the spread. 

LSU vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

LSU’s defense has been solid this season, ranking 44th in defensive efficiency, and allowing just 63.4 points per game. It held Arkansas to under 37% from the floor and just 4 of 25 from downtown in an upset win over the weekend.

Kentucky has had some high-scoring outputs this season. Tshiebwe giving the school second chances is a big reason it ranks sixth nationally in floor shooting percentage and 13th in offensive efficiency. However, its best opponents this season — Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan, and UCLA — held the Wildcats to under 69 points on average. At the other end, there have been holes in their defense. Michigan State and Gonzaga put up 86 and 88 points, respectively, while Missouri scored 89 a week ago. 

The Covers Consensus has the Over as the popular play, with 59% of picks of more than 138 points in this contest. The Wildcats are seeing an average of 145.2 points per game, while LSU’s games average 135.4 points. 

LSU’s last six games have seen a 4-1-1 advantage for the Under, while Kentucky’s last seven games at home have seen the Under hit five times. The Total has been evenly split in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

LSU vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Wildcats are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games. Find more College basketball betting trends for LSU vs. Kentucky.

LSU vs Kentucky game info

LSU vs Kentucky key injuries

LSU: Corneilous Williams F (Out).
Kentucky: CJ Fredrick G (Out).

Pages related to this topic