Indiana vs Ohio State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Points a Plenty in Ohio

Both the Hoosiers and Buckeyes possess plenty of weapons to pile up the points, but neither defense is top of the line. With these sides to lock horns tonight, our college basketball picks are seeing a recipe for an Over.

Feb 6, 2024 • 11:15 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Kel'el Ware Indiana Hoosiers NCAAB
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The clock is ticking on both Mike Woodson and Chris Holtmann as the two clash in Columbus with both bench bosses desperately needing a win to keep any positive momentum from this season alive.

The college basketball odds have the Ohio State Buckeyes as 5.5-point home favorites despite the team being on a 1-7 stretch, but Indiana hasn’t been much better as of late. Both programs are 13-9 and have losing records in the Big Ten, with defense being a major reason why. That bodes well for the Over.

Find out where my best bets lie in my free college basketball picks for Indiana vs. Ohio State on February 6.

Indiana vs Ohio State best odds

Indiana vs Ohio State picks and predictions

While nobody will be banging the table for either the Hoosiers or Buckeyes to get into the NCAA Tournament, it’s not hard to see the talent on both rosters. Coaching has been an issue — especially for Ohio State — but both teams have been capable of hanging enough points to keep up with some of the better programs they’ve faced this season.

Although the Buckeyes have no trouble scoring, defense has been their biggest issue. They're 122nd in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and are allowing 69.5 points per game. In conference though, that number balloons up to 76.6 ppg. 

Ohio State is among the worst teams in the country at defending against threes. Holtmann’s team is allowing opponents to shoot 35.8% from behind the arc, and while the Indiana doesn’t shoot a ton of threes, it does have four players taking at least one per game and hitting above 34.5%.

Indiana doesn’t have an offense that lights up the world, averaging 73.5 points per game and ranking 101st in adjusted offensive efficiency, but it’s shown the ability to score against lesser defensive opponents. In their 12 games against defenses that rank outside of the Top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency, the Hoosiers are scoring 78.2 ppg. Leading the way are power forward Malik Reneau and his 16 ppg along with center Kel’el Ware and his 15.3 ppg.

What helps those two matchup well against Ohio State is one can draw Buckeyes center Felix Okpara — Ohio State’s best big stopper — while the other creates mismatches with the lack of size in the rest of Holtmann’s starting lineup. They’ve also both shown the ability and willingness to shoot threes to keep defenses honest. Reneau takes 1.5 per game and connects on 39.4% of them with Ware taking 1.4 and hitting 44.4% of them.

Overall, Indiana is one of the better 2-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 53.4% of its shots and ranking 36th in field goal percentage at 47.7%. That’s the power of Reneau and Ware — both shoot above 58.5% from two.

Alternatively, Ohio State is set up well to score on a Hoosiers' defense that’s allowing 74.3 ppg and ranks 100th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Teams are shooting 34.1% from three against Indiana and getting to the free throw line 19.2 times per game, two things Ohio State has been consistent with this season.

The Buckeyes are scoring 75.2 ppg and sit 42nd in adjusted offensive efficiency. Each of their big three scorers are shooting at least 83.2% from the charity stripe and all three are taking more than three threes per game.

Ohio State is shooting 44.8% from the floor, 34.2% from three, and 75.1% from the free throw line this season and has shown scoring versatility. Bruce Thornton attacks the rim while being a willing 3-point shooter, leading the Buckeyes in points (15.6), while knocking down 1.7 threes per game. 

Jamison Battle’s 3-point shooting has been the real X-factor for Ohio State as of late, with the 6-foot-7 forward hitting 45% of his deep shots on 6.4 attempts per game.

Both programs have the offensive firepower and the defensive woes for this total to hit the Over.

My best bet: Over 141.5 (-110 at bet365)

Indiana vs Ohio State same-game parlay

Over 141.5

Kel'el Ware Over 14.5 points

Jamison Battle Over 15.5 points

Ware is a unique matchup for Ohio State with his size and scoring touch. The 7-foot center is more agile than most big men in the conference and has a shooting stroke that forces teams to respect his ability to space the floor.

The Oregon transfer has been showing promise all season and has scored at least 15 points in eight of 19 games. In his last two outings against Iowa and Penn State — two defenses on the same level as the Buckeyes — he averaged 24 points per game.

On the flip side, Battle’s 3-point shooting can exploit Indiana’s perimeter defense. The Hoosiers are allowing 8.6 threes per game and Battle, who averages 14.3 points per game, has been hitting 2.9 treys this season. The Minnesota transfer has scored at least 16 in nine of 22 games, including seven of his last 11.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Indiana vs Ohio State spread and Over/Under analysis

While Ohio State has struggled this season, the team has been far better at home and most books opened with the Buckeyes between -6 and -6.5. The line has shifted down to -5.5 pretty much everywhere.

Ohio State has struggled to cover this season going 7-14-1 ATS, including 2-8 in its last 10. Indiana has been slightly better going 10-11-1 ATS.

The game total opened as high as 144.5 and has been trickling down with most books now set at 141.5. The Buckeyes are 12-10 betting the Over this season and Indiana is 11-11.

Indiana vs Ohio State betting trend to know

Indiana has only hit the game total Under in 17 of their last 35 games (-2.80 Units / -7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Ohio State.

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Indiana vs Ohio State game info

Location: Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
Date: Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock

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