Howard vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: No Tshiebwe, No Problem For Wildcats

After a very disappointing and stunning first-round exit from the NCAA Tournament a season ago, the Kentucky Wildcats are looking to get off to a strong start this season and remind the fans what the program can do.

To do so, however, means to overcome the absence of three key players when they take on the Howard Bison on Monday night.

Howard is coming off a 16-13 season that saw them knocked out of the opening round of the MEAC Tournament last season, but have made improvements under head coach Kenneth Blakeney.

Getting a road win against Kentucky would be a massive statement, but can he pull off the monumental upset? Find out in our NCAAB picks and predictions for Howard vs. Kentucky.

Howard vs Kentucky best odds

Howard vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Kentucky Wildcats big man Oscar Tshiebwe — the reigning National Player of the Year — has been recovering from an October surgery and head coach John Calipari said he will not be available for this game, although he could return Friday night against Duquesne. In addition, forward Daimion Collins will miss the game following the sudden passing of his father a week ago.

One player whose status is unknown is starting point guard Sahvir Wheeler, who was injured in the exhibition win over Missouri Western last week. Calipari indicated he would be a game-time decision, although I’d be surprised if he’s risked for this contest.

That leaves Kentucky with just eight scholarship players for the game against the Howard Bison. That said, they’re pretty solid players to have. In Kentucky’s second exhibition against Kentucky State, the Wildcats won 111-53 without the trio of players and made 12 of 26 attempts from outside. 

That included a 5-for-10 performance from Antonio Reeves, a senior transfer from Illinois State, as well as a 3-for-5 effort from former Iowa guard CJ Fredrick, who missed all of last season with an injury.

The question is whether Kentucky will get the performance we saw from its second exhibition game, or from its first, where it scored just 56 points and was outrebounded 36-35, including 10-8 on the offensive glass. One of Howard’s top returning players is forward Steve Settle III, who averaged nearly 14 points and five rebounds per contest, along with nearly one block per game. 

Settle is one of multiple players measuring more than 6-foot-9 on the roster, meaning they could try to get physical inside against Lance Ware and Jacob Toppin and try to keep the game close with a strong rebounding performance at the offensive end.

That would help negate their disadvantage on the perimeter after losing sharpshooter Kyle Foster to graduation. The top returning guard for the Bison, Elijah Hawkins, shot just 29.7% from beyond the arc a season ago. 

That said, Howard is replacing a large majority of their scoring from a season ago, and will need time to gel. Kentucky simply has too much talent for Howard to overcome in this contest, and its 3-point shooting appears to be a weapon again this season.

The Wildcats made 21 of 48 attempts in their first two preseason games, and without Tshiebwe or Wheeler on the floor, I expect that to be another point of emphasis Monday night. Take the Wildcats to cover the spread. 

My best bet: Kentucky -26.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Howard vs Kentucky spread analysis

Howard played one game on the road last season against a ranked opponent, losing 100-81 to Villanova in their fourth game of the season. The Bison shot 56.6% from the floor and made half of their 24 threes, but Foster was a huge piece of that puzzle.

They struggled much of the season with rebounding issues, but they finished the year strong with eight wins over their final 10 regular season games, including six straight. 

The Wildcats went 26-8 a season ago, with the last defeat being a shocker. Their 85-79 overtime loss to 15-seeded Saint Peter’s had many fans upset and made them a punchline all summer.

However, the Wildcats were dominant in the early season against mid-major foes, as they followed their season-opening loss to Duke with seven straight wins. In addition to their returning talent, the Wildcats have added stud freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston to a team that led the SEC in points per possession in conference play last season.

Going by the KenPom numbers, Kentucky is expected to win this game by 29 points. That would continue a trend of covers for Howard opponents, as the Bison have covered the number just once in their last six games on the road.

However, Kentucky has failed to cover in each of its last four home games. In terms of pure wins and losses, Kentucky was 18-0 at Rupp Arena last season and has won 19 straight at home.

Howard vs Kentucky Over/Under analysis

Howard is replacing quite a bit on offense, including its leading scorer and 3-point shooter. The Bison averaged 76.38 points per game while allowing 69.62 per contest. They made nearly 44% of their field goals while holding their opponents under 43%. They were also one of the better teams from beyond the arc, making 35.77% of their attempts. 

No team in the SEC last season averaged more points per possession than Kentucky in conference play. Tshiebwe’s outstanding play allowed Kentucky to average 79.4 points per game, as his offensive rebounding often gave them second and third scoring opportunities. They also converted on 48.3% of their attempts, while holding opponents to just 41.4% shooting. 

The Over was very profitable for bettors down the stretch for Kentucky at Rupp Arena. Nine of its last 11 home games saw the total go Over the number. That bodes well for those who believe in trends, as Howard’s last seven road games saw the Over hit five times. 

Howard vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Over is 9-2 in Kentucky’s last 11 home games at Rupp Arena. Find more College basketball betting trends for Howard vs. Kentucky.

Howard vs Kentucky game info

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