Oh, it’s you again.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs and St. Mary’s Gaels go at it in the West Coast Conference tournament title game Tuesday night, which will be the fifth time in the past seven years these rivals have battled for the conference crown.
The Bulldogs are 12.5-point favorites for the championship, but the Gaels got the last laugh in the regular season, stunning the Zags at home in the final game of the schedule. Looking back at the history of this WCC rivalry, the Bulldogs are 11-3 SU and ATS versus the Gaels in the conference tournament since 2000.
Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga on March 8.
Gonzaga vs St. Mary's odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Gonzaga hit the board as a 13.5-point neutral court chalk and has since dropped to -12.5 with early play on St. Mary’s. The total opened at 142 points and has since slimmed to 140 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
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Gonzaga vs St. Mary's predictions
- Prediction: St. Mary's +12.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 140 (-110)
- Best bet: Gonzaga TT Under 76.5 (-110)
Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Gonzaga vs St. Mary's game info
• Location: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Tuesday, March 8, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Gonzaga at St. Mary's betting preview
Injuries
Gonzaga: Dominick Harris G (Questionable), Kaden Perry F (Questionable).
St. Mary's: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have produced an 18-34 Over/Under record (65% Unders) in head-to-head meetings going back to 2000-2001. Find more NCAA betting trends for Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's.
Gonzaga vs St. Mary's picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
A slow start doomed the Bulldogs in their February 26 loss to the Gaels, scoring just 21 points in the first 20 minutes en route to a 67-57 loss at St. Mary’s. Gonzaga was hell-bent on starting strong in the tournament semifinals with San Francisco, jumping out to a 9-0 lead and posting 47 points in the first half Monday night.
The Bulldogs took their foot off the gas in the second half of the semifinal and allowed the Dons to creep back in for a backdoor cover, with the Zags looking ahead to this title game and finding standout forward Drew Timme in foul trouble.
The Gaels found themselves in a fight with pesky Santa Clara in the other semifinal matchup Monday, giving up a 15-point buffer in the second half to burn bettors who laid the five points with SMC. The Gaels need a full 40 minutes of defensive fortitude if they want to edge the Zags for a second straight time – or even stay within this double-digit spread.
Santa Clara was checked to just 41% shooting last night, including 5 for 13 from 3-point range – a steep downturn for a program that ranks 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. Defense tends to travel and St. Mary’s sees little difference in its defensive output from venue to venue.
They know the Zags all too well and allowed 57 and 74 points to the Bulldogs in their two meetings this season – Gonzaga’s two lowest point totals during WCC competition and well below its season average of 88.3 points per game.
The “revenge” angle may have bettors buying into the Bulldogs but we’re going to go with a Gaels squad that has pumped out an 18-10-2 ATS mark this season.
Prediction: St. Mary’s +12.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
St. Mary’s and Gonzaga run contrasting tempos, with the Zags wanting to push the pace (third fastest) and SMC ranked out 337th in tempo at KenPom. The Gaels can’t afford to get into a shootout with the Bulldogs and will try to turn this matchup into a grinder with plenty of battling in the halfcourt set.
The Gaels are great at plugging the passing lanes on defense, ranked out as the top team in assists per field goal allowed (0.356) in the country while limiting opponents to only 8.2 assists an outing.
St. Mary’s watched Gonzaga record only four assists in their last meeting – a notable disruption from the Zags’ third-ranked assist average of 18.4. The Bulldogs are very much a team that thrives on fluidity and runs, and SMC’s pace on offense and tenacity on defense will make it very hard for Gonzaga to cook up that chemistry.
Their two regular-season meetings went Under totals of 144.5 and 147.5 points and even with this number at 140 – the second-lowest Over/Under the Bulldogs have faced all season – we’re banking on a low-scoring fight with both teams scratching and clawing for buckets.
Prediction: Under 140 (-110)
Best bet
As mentioned, the Bulldogs were limited to 57 and 74 points in their two meetings with St. Mary’s, limited to 60 and 55 field goal attempts in those outings – a slight dip from their season average of 62.8 FGA per game.
A notable difference in those contests, however, came at the free throw line. Gonzaga went 8 for 13 and 5 for 13, which is well below the team’s season average of 18.6 free throws a contest.
The Gaels are great at moving their feet and playing positional defense, getting whistled only 15.6 times per contest and sending foes to the stripe for a mere 12.9 FTA. Limiting the amount of scoring with the clock stopped is a big plus for Under backers.
Given the intensity, familiarity and tight turnaround, we’re going Under the Zags’ team total of 76.5 points in the WCC title game tonight.
Pick: Gonzaga team total Under 76.5 (-110)
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