Georgia vs Kentucky Odds, Picks and Predictions: Back Abdur-Rahim in Saturday's SEC Affair

Kentucky looks to keep pressure on the SEC leaders when it hosts Georgia in a key conference showdown on Saturday evening. Our college basketball odds have the Wildcats favored by double-digits.

Georgia sits at 13-4 on the season after a strong performance against South Carolina earlier this week. The Bulldogs are 11-1 in their last 12 games and used a 19-3 run to overcome a nine-point deficit and pick up the road win. They rank in the Top 25 in effective FG% defense and are one of the best teams in the country at getting to the charity stripe.

John Calipari picked up his 400th win as head coach of the Wildcats when they defeated Mississippi State on Wednesday evening. A 13-0 run in the first half proved to be the difference as they won by 13, with Antonio Reeves dropping 27 points. The win moved Kentucky to 13-3 on the year, as it sits one game back of Auburn and Alabama.

Our college basketball picks and predictions for Georgia vs. Kentucky key in on one particular player to have a solid offensive performance.

Georgia vs Kentucky best odds

Georgia vs Kentucky picks and predictions

Kentucky has the highest-scoring offense in the nation heading into Saturday, and it ranks sixth in offensive efficiency. That’s been a big reason why the defense struggles for the Wildcats have been negated, and somewhat overlooked at times.

But the issues are there. Calipari wants his players to switch on ball screens, and it’s led to numerous instances of players being wide open for good looks. This is especially true from beyond the arc, a key reason Kentucky ranks 322nd in opponent 3-point shooting rate, with teams taking nearly 43% of their shots from downtown.

The Wildcats also are giving up a lot of straight-line drives to the rim. This is leading to another issue, which is foul trouble. Aaron Bradshaw has been fighting to stay in games at times as he has to switch to help protect the rim. He’s not the only player having that problem, a key reason Kentucky’s opponents are attempting nearly 20 free throws per contest.

Georgia’s done a terrific job getting to the line all season. The Bulldogs rank 16th in attempts per game from the line, and draw a foul once every five offensive plays. In fact, big man Frank Anselem-Ibe has attempted as many free throws (22) as he has field goals.

Their leading scorer, Jabri Abdur-Rahim, is also leading the team in attempts from the line. He’s made 72 of his 81 free throws on the season and is also the team leader with 39 3-point makes from a team-high 94 attempts. He’s averaging 12.8 points per game, and I’m backing him to drop at least 11 for my best bet on Saturday.

At 6-foot-8, Abdur-Rahim is a player who shouldn’t be bothered by Kentucky’s length and athleticism. He’s also a player who can battle inside while stretching the floor. His usage rate of 19.8 isn’t the highest on the team, but he shoots a solid percentage and can score in a variety of ways.

Abdur-Rahim has reached the free-throw line 11 times over Georgia’s past two games, sinking 10 of his attempts. He’s also attempted five or more shots from downtown in each of his last seven games. While he’s made just 11 of his 34 attempts over the past five games, he’s likely going to get some wide-open looks against the Wildcats.

Kentucky’s pace of play should lead to more possessions for Georgia than usual, with the Wildcats allowing nearly 65 shot attempts per game. I find it hard to believe Georgia’s top scorer won’t at least reach his average with more opportunities to do so, especially when he’s reached double figures in 12 of 17 games this season.

In addition, Georgia runs a lot of screening action near the top of the lane, which will put more stress on the Wildcats defense. This should lead to plenty of chances for Abdur-Rahim to either find himself open on kick-outs, as well as chances to crash the glass for put-backs against a defense struggling to limit second-chance opportunities.

Take advantage of the favorable odds against a Kentucky defense that has allowed 15 opponents to reach double-digit point totals over its last five games.

My best bet: Jabri Abdur-Rahim Over 10.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Georgia vs Kentucky same-game parlay

Jabri Abdur-Rahim Over 10.5 points

Georgia +13.5

Over 162.5

+436 at FanDuel

After opening at Kentucky -10.5, the line has shifted to as high as -14 in some places. For me, that’s too high. We’ll go into more detail as to why shortly, but I’m taking the Bulldogs to cover the 13.5-point spread as part of our same-game parlay.

I’m also taking the Over 162.5, which has also jumped up since opening. Until the Wildcats actually have a game where they go Under, I’m going to continue to ride the train. The Over is 24-8 in Kentucky’s last 32 contests, and their last seven games have all seen at least 166 points scored.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Georgia vs Kentucky spread and Over/Under analysis

As mentioned above, the spread opened at -10.5 for the Wildcats, and Saturday morning saw it move quickly up to -13.5 or -14 depending on the book. Kentucky has gone 5-0 against the spread in its last five as favorites, covering as double-digit favorites in each of those games, and are 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games. However, the Wildcats lost by seven to UNC-Wilmington as 18.5-pt favorites.

The Bulldogs are 3-0 ATS as underdogs over their past four games, winning two of those contests outright. They’ve covered in four straight games and five of the last six, with the only loss ATS coming as -21 chalk against Alabama A&M.

I like Georgia to cover the spread here, as it’s gotten too high for my liking. The Bulldogs are extremely sound at guarding the 3-point line, holding teams under 30% from beyond the arc. That, combined with their ability to get to the line, should allow them to keep it closer to 10 points.

Folks have caught onto the fact that Kentucky doesn’t know a total it can’t cover. Since opening at 158.5 on Friday afternoon, the total has jumped up four to five points, with some places listing it at 163.5 as of early Saturday afternoon.

Kentucky’s last seven games and nine of its last 10 have gone Over, covering numbers as high as 170 points. The Wildcats have scored 90 or more points in five of their last six games.

As for the Bulldogs, they’ve failed to top 80 points in five of their last six games, but their last two have both gone Over. The Under is 4-1 in their last five games with a pregame total of 150 points or more, and only one opponent has topped 75 points in their last six games.

Georgia vs Kentucky betting trend to know

The Over is 24-8 in Kentucky’s last 32 games (+15.20 units / 43% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Georgia vs. Kentucky.

Georgia vs Kentucky game info

Georgia vs Kentucky key injuries

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