The No. 11 seeded Georgia Bulldogs face off against the No. 6 seed Florida Gators in the second round of the SEC Tournament bracket on Thursday night. Georgia rallied from behind to beat Missouri in the first round last night but they'll have a much tougher time keeping a high-scoring Gators squad in check.
The Gators are 35th in the NET rankings but they are a national title dark horse with the 17th-best March Madness odds. Meanwhile, Conference Tournament odds have the Gators as 8-point favorites with the O/U at 155 for this clash in Nashville.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Georgia vs. Florida on March 14.
Georgia vs Florida best odds
Georgia vs Florida picks and predictions
The Georgia Bulldogs had to close last night's game on a 12-0 run to beat Missouri 64-59. The Tigers shot just 38.3% from the floor and went 4-21 from deep in that game, but that had more to do with poor shooting from a terrible Mizzou team.
Don't forget that the Bulldogs struggled defensively during the regular season, ranking 12th in the SEC in opponent 2-point percentage (53.7%) and 3-point percentage (36.2%) in conference play. They'll have a tough time against an up-tempo Florida Gators squad that ranks 17th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and averages 84.9 points per game.
The Bulldogs prefer a fast pace, ranking 66th in the country in average length of possession (16.6 seconds). With the Gators playing at an even speedier tempo (16.1 seconds per offensive possession), we should see plenty of possessions in this contest.
The Gators are led by guard Walter Clayton Jr., who averages 17.0 ppg. Clayton does an excellent job of creating his own shot and he's highly efficient from both the perimeter and mid-range. The Bulldogs struggle to defend both areas, ranking outside the Top 200 at allowing high-quality threes, and are just 247th in mid-range defensive efficiency according to ShotQualityBets.
The O/U for Clayton's points total is set at 17.5, a number he has eclipsed in nine of his last 12 games — including both regular season meetings against Georgia. In his last contest, Clayton had an off night and finished with 14 points against Vanderbilt, but I expect him to bounce back with a big game here.
My best bet: Walter Clayton Jr. Over 17.5 points (-115 at bet365)
Georgia vs Florida same-game parlay
Walter Clayton Jr. Over 17.5 points
Florida team total Over 81.5
Zyon Pullin Over 4.5 assists
There's an obvious theme for this SGP and it involves fading a Georgia team that plays at a fast pace and defends poorly.
The Gators dropped 88 points against Georgia on the road when these teams previously clashed in February, and they scored 102 points (85 in regulation) in Gainsville in January.
Clayton leads the Gators in scoring but it's point guard Zyon Pullin who made the All-SEC first team (Clayton nabbed second-team honors). Pullin averages 5.0 assists per game and he has gone Over 4.5 assists in five of his last seven contests. He dropped five dimes against Georgia in the previous meeting and tied a season-high with eight assists in the first meeting this year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Georgia vs Florida spread and Over/Under analysis
The Gators opened as 7.5-point favorites with the O/U at 155. The line quickly moved to -8 while the total has remained the same as of 2 p.m. ET.
The Gators wrapped up their regular season with a disappointing 79-78 loss to Vanderbilt as 9-point home faves. They had an 11-7 record in conference play while going 9-9 against the spread. While Florida has been terrific with the ball, it's struggled defensively and ranks 86th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
The Bulldogs finished the regular season with just two wins in their last 12 games but went 6-6 ATS during that span. While they ended up winning and covering the -2.5 spread against Missouri yesterday, they trailed until late in the game against a Mizzou side that doesn't have a single conference win this year.
Georgia vs Florida betting trend to know
The Gators have hit the Over on their team total in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Georgia vs. Florida.
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Georgia vs Florida game info
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Thursday, March-XX, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SECN |
Georgia vs Florida key injuries
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