Florida vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Will Own the Glass

The first game of the second round of the 2023 SEC Tournament in Nashville, TN will see the Mississippi State Bulldogs face off against the Florida Gators at Bridgestone Arena on Thursday afternoon.

Mississippi State finished the season at 20-11 overall and 8-10 in SEC play. Meanwhile, Florida finished the regular season at 16-15 overall and 9-9 in SEC play. The Gators lost seven of nine before winning their last two games of the season.

Will the Bulldogs keep their NCAA tournament hopes alive with a win? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Mississippi State vs. Florida on March 9. 

Florida vs Mississippi State best odds

Florida vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

These two programs met only once in the regular season and it was on January 21 at Mississippi State. The Gators won 61-59 holding on to win despite not scoring in the final 2:24. However, Florida had Colin Castleton in this game.

Castleton was the leading scorer for Florida with 13 points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals, and a block. He averaged 16.0 points, 7.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 0.9 steals, and 3.0 blocks per game before going down for the season with an injury.

Florida lost three consecutive games without Castleton before winning the final two games of the regular season. However, the big difference in the first matchup was Florida’s ability to hit 3-pointers. They shot 10/24 from downtown, and that is one of the few areas where the Bulldogs struggle defensively.

The good news for the Bulldogs is that was an anomaly from the Gators' shooters, as they rank just 262nd in 3-point makes and 225th in attempts.

The Bulldogs are also the much better-rebounding team, especially without Castleton. They outrebounded the Gators in the first matchup 39-35 and that was with Castleton in the game. Mississippi State ranks 56th in the country with 37.1 rebounds per game and Florida comes in at 352nd in boards allowed per contest (38.4).

Mississippi State needs this game for its NCAA tournament hopes. A loss will almost surely eliminate the Bulldogs from contention, so I expect them to use their defense and rebounding to keep Florida off the scoreboard and win this game with grit.

My best bet: Mississippi State -3 (-110 at Caesars)

Florida vs Mississippi State spread analysis

Mississippi State went 4-1 in neutral site games this season, including a win over Marquette, which is one of its best wins of the season. Meanwhile, Florida went 2-3 in neutral site games, failing to beat any Top-125 team in the NET rankings.

The Gators were also 4-7 in true road games this season. Offensively, Mississippi State relies heavily on senior forward Tolu Smith, who averages 15.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, and shoots 58.3% from the field. In the first matchup, he was able to record 12 points and 11 rebounds despite having to go up against Castleton.

Florida gave up 25 points to Oscar Tshiebwe for Kentucky and 18 points to Liam Robbins for Vanderbilt in recent games without Castleton. The Bulldogs are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games against a team with a winning straight up record and 36-15-1 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

The Gators are 1-7 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning percentage above .600.

I already love the Bulldogs to win on the defensive end, but they should also get some good looks around the basket with Smith. This game is so important to Mississippi State and Florida is too undermanned for the Gators to pull this one out.

Florida vs Mississippi State Over/Under analysis

While Florida averages 72.1 points per game, the Gators have also shown that they can be manipulated into playing to the style of their opponent. The Bulldogs held them to only 61 points in the first matchup and the Gators have played eight other games where they failed to reach 65 points.

The Under is 4-0 in the Bulldogs' last four neutral site games and is 8-3 in the Gators' last 11 Thursday games. The last matchup also went well Under the extremely low total of 128.5. 

Logically, I would certainly lean toward the Under and expect neither team to surpass 70 points.

Florida vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

The Gators are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games following a win. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Mississippi State.

Florida vs Mississippi State game info

Florida vs Mississippi State key injuries

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