The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have a taste for college basketball blue bloods heading into their ACC opener versus the Duke Blue Devils at home Wednesday.
Notre Dame is coming off an upset win over the Kentucky Wildcats this past Saturday but is still a 4-point college basketball betting underdog hosting Duke, which was dealt a 15-point loss to Illinois inside Cameron Indoor Stadium last Tuesday.
These are our college basketball free picks and predictions for Duke vs. Notre Dame on December 16.
Duke Blue Devils vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Duke: Jalen Johnson F (Out)
Notre Dame: None
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
Notre Dame is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Notre Dame.
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Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
The Blue Devils don’t just limp into this ACC opener with a 2-2 SU mark (0-4 ATS) with the sting of the Illinois loss still fresh, but Duke will also be missing standout freshman forward Jalen Johnson, who is out indefinitely with a foot injury.
Johnson is the team’s third-leading scorer, is tied as its top rebounder and leads Duke in blocked shots, pulling down an average of 8.3 boards, scoring 11.5 points and recording two blocks a game. His 6-foot-9 frame would have come in handy versus a towering Fighting Irish squad that ranks seventh in the country in average height.
Notre Dame doesn’t run as deep as Duke in terms of talent but has capable big men that will enjoy the extra room to operate around the paint if the Blue Devils can’t find a replacement for Johnson’s defensive contributions. Irish forwards Nate Laszewski (6-foot-10) and Juwan Durham (6-foot-11) combine for 23.3 points, 16.3 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks per game through the first four contests.
Those interior threats are flanked by a big backcourt, which thrives on drive-and-kick possessions and plenty of ball movement. Notre Dame runs a methodical pace on offense, dominating ball control and achieves success when finding the open shooter, knocking down almost 42 percent of its looks from outside. That perimeter play will benefit from being back home, where the Irish have hit 22 total 3-pointers, compared to just 15 triples on the road.
Duke will try to disrupt that offense by throwing plenty of pressure at the Notre Dame guards, looking to wear them down over the course of 40 minutes and create easy buckets off turnovers. While the Irish may start to feel the burn in the second half (much like they did in Kentucky), they don’t make too many mistakes with an average of fewer than 12 turnovers per game and won’t be rattled by a big-name opponent, having already taken on power programs like UK, Ohio State and Michigan State.
South Bend is a tough stop for the Dukies. Notre Dame was 15-4 SU at home last season (9-8-2 ATS) and has covered in seven of its last 10 home stands.
PREDICTION: Notre Dame +4 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Duke’s best defense is picking up the pace on both sides of the ball, trying to put a shallow Notre Dame roster on its heels and play outside of its comfort zone.
The Blue Devils have been very pedestrian on offense through four games, but still rank 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency at KenPom.com and they have the firepower to put up big numbers. They’ll likely need to turn this game into a shootout if they hope to overcome a terrible defensive effort so far in 2020.
Coach K’s squad is allowing opponents to score almost 71 points on better than 43 percent shooting per game, including a 33.3 percent clip from beyond the arc (199th in the country). With Johnson out of the lineup, Duke doesn’t have a rim protector to change shots, so the Blue Devils may be a little more cautious when it comes to padding the paint, giving up some extra space on the outside and allowing Notre Dame to let it fly.
PREDICTION: Over 146 (-110)
Duke vs Notre Dame Betting Card
- Notre Dame +4 (-110)
- Over 146 (-110)
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