The 2022-23 college basketball season tips off on Monday and there’s plenty of intrigue across the country. Last season featured a bit of everything; elite freshmen, the swan songs of two of the greatest coaches of all time, an incredible Cinderella run from Saint Peter's, and a Final Four featuring a quartet of college basketball powerhouses.
This year could be even more interesting after an offseason filled with personnel turnover and transfers, but if you do your homework that parity could prove profitable when looking at futures odds. Here are my five best bets for the 2022-23 NCAA basketball season. Be sure to also check out our college basketball odds page!
Best bets for the 2022-23 college basketball season
National Champion - Kentucky
It seems crazy to think that Kentucky hasn't reached the Final Four since 2015 and was the first school to fall to tiny Saint Peter's in last season's NCAA tournament. Don't let those two facts dissuade you from realizing that this squad might be better than any other team in the nation.
Five-star freshmen Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston won't be expected to carry the team since last year's Wooden Award winner, Oscar Tshiebwe, and SEC assists leader, Sahvir Wheeler, are back in the fold. Meanwhile, a healthy C.J. Frederick gives this team its best perimeter shooter in years while forward Jacob Toppin looks ready to break out.
Add in transfer guard Antonio Reeves (20.1 ppg at Illinois State last season) and former five-star recruit Damien Collins, and this year's Wildcats squad has more depth, balance, and experience than we have seen in a while.
Best bet: NCAA Men's Basketball Champion - Kentucky (+1,200 at bet365)
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Final Four - Gonzaga
Gonzaga lost Chet Holmgren to the NBA, but Wooden Award favorite Drew Timme is back for his fourth year in Spokane and the Bulldogs have two other returning starters in Julian Strawther and Rasir Bolton (a Third Team All-Big 12 selection at Iowa State in 2021).
Former five-star recruits Hunter Sallis and Nolan Hickman look ready to break out in their sophomore seasons, while transfer guard Malachi Smith was named Southern Conference Player of the Year at Chatanooga and will give the backcourt a boost.
This is a team with enough experience and depth to once again roll through the regular season which should give them a top seed and an easier journey through their side of the bracket.
There are still major questions about whether the Zags can finally take that next step and win the national championship, but being able to get them at better than 3/1 odds to make the Final Four looks like a no-brainer.
Best bet: Team to make Final Four - Gonzaga (+330 at DraftKings)
Wooden Award Winner
The last three Wooden Award winners (Tshiebwe, Luka Garza, and Obi Toppin) were dark horses at the beginning of the season, so it might be wise to look past the faves to find value here.
Six of the last eight winners of this award were upperclassmen and one of the underclassmen was the 22-year-old Toppin. With several of the top incoming freshmen coming into the season with injuries or taking a back seat to teammates, I'm looking to more experienced players once again.
Tshiebwe is looking to repeat, but with a better team around him, his numbers might dip. Timme should be in line for another highly productive season at Gonzaga but playing in blowout games in the WCC doesn't help his candidacy.
Trayce Jackson-Davis averaged 18.3 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 58.9% from the field for Indiana last season. At +2,800, he has terrific value to win the Wooden Award. Especially with Big Ten players like Keegan Murray, Johnny Davis, Jaden Ivey, Kofi Cockburn, Ayo Dosunmu, and Garza emerging as strong candidates over the last couple of years.
Indiana returns four starters from last year, including point guard Xavier Johnson, and that continuity should help Jackson-Davis put up big numbers once again. Although the Hoosiers are expected to be very stingy on the defensive end of the floor, they don't have many scoring options which should see him continue to carry the load on offense.
It's also worth mentioning that Indiana is the betting favorite to win the Big Ten (+290 according to FanDuel) and a strong season by Mike Woodson's squad will naturally boost his chances of taking home this award.
Best bet: Wooden Award winner - Trayce Jackson-Davis (+2,800 at FanDuel)
Conference Winner - Saint Louis
Dayton is the preseason favorite to win the Atlantic 10, but I think that Saint Louis actually has the slightly better team. Sure the Flyers went 24-11 last season with a team made up primarily of freshmen and sophomores, but the Billikens went 24-12 and also return their entire starting lineup.
That lineup gets a massive boost with the return of Javonte Perkins who averaged 17.1 ppg on 47/38/87 shooting in 2021 but missed all of last season due to a torn ACL. Perkins, along with Yuri Collins (11.1 points and an NCAA-best 7.9 assists per game) and Gibson Jimerson (16.3 ppg on 45/42/83 shooting) make up the best backcourt trio in the mid-major conferences.
Saint Louis also added a pair of key transfers in Javon Pickett (11.1 ppg in the SEC last season) and forward Jake Forrester who made 44 starts for Temple over the last three years. Forrester will join center Francis Okoro to give the Billikens the size they need to compete with Dayton in the post.
With their elite guard play, sizzling outside shooting, and depth, the Billikens look like a strong bet to win this conference. Getting them at this prize is a bargain.
Best bet: Atlantic 10 Regular Season conference winner - Saint Louis (+330 at DraftKings)
Conference Winner - San Diego State
Occasionally you can bet on an overwhelming favorite and still get a decent payout. That's why I'm going with the general consensus and backing the Aztecs to win the Mountain West regular season.
San Diego State won the regular season title in 2020 and 2021 but finished in third place last season — just behind Boise State and Colorado State.
The Broncos lost three starters from last year's championship squad and will have to adjust to Marcus Shaver Jr. moving from playing off the ball to the point.
The Rams also saw three starters depart in the offseason (including Mountain West Player of the Year David Roddy) and will be without star point guard Isaiah Stevens for at least a couple of months as he recovers from foot surgery.
That should put the Aztecs and their four returning starters in a prime position to return to the top of the conference standings. SDSU is so loaded that one of those starters will likely be bumped to the bench to accommodate transfer forward Jaedon LeDee, while another transfer Darrion Trammell will run the point after being named First-Team All-WAC last year.
The Aztecs always play lockdown defense and Trammell gives them another shot creator to compliment Matt Bradley (16.9 ppg) who often had to carry the offense last year.
Best bet: Mountain West Regular Season conference winner - San Diego State (+100 at DraftKings)
