Baylor vs Texas Tech Picks and Predictions: Red Raiders Protect Perfect Home Record

When healthy, Baylor is one of the nation's top teams, but injuries to key players have led the Bears to just a 6-4 record in their last 10. Tonight, they're in Texas Tech's building, where the Red Raiders are a perfect 15-0 at home. Don't overthink it.

Feb 16, 2022 • 12:40 ET • 4 min read
Adonis Arms Texas Tech Red Raiders college basketball
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

As it does every year, the Big 12 has housed some of the best college basketball action of the season, and tonight we're getting treated with a Top-15 matchup between No. 7 Baylor (21-4, 9-3) and No. 11 Texas Tech (19-6, 8-4). 

The Red Raiders stole the first matchup in Waco, 65-62, and will look to go two-for-two against the Bears for the first time since 2005. 

Can the banged-up Bears get it done on the road or will the Red Raiders stay perfect at home? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Texas Tech.

Baylor vs Texas Tech odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Texas Tech hit the board as a slim 1-point favorite in most spots but the spread has trended in the Red Raiders' direction with the line now at -1.5 or -2 across the board. The total opened at 136 and has ticked up slightly to 136.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Baylor vs Texas Tech predictions

Predictions made on 2/16/2022 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Baylor vs Texas Tech game info

Location: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET

Baylor at Texas Tech betting preview


Baylor: LJ Cryer (Questionable), Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (Out).
Texas Tech: Kevin McCullar (Questionable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Texas Tech is 10-1 against the spread in its last 11 games vs. teams with winning percentages over .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Baylor vs. Texas Tech.

Baylor vs Texas Tech picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

When the Baylor Bears are healthy, there's no denying they have the talent, defense, coaching, and chemistry to win it all once again, but that just hasn't been the case of late. 

They've gone 6-4 in their last 10 after opening the season 15-0. But it's been the injury to leading-scorer LJ Cryer and, more recently, the season-ending injury to leading-rebounder Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua, that's made the road ahead even tougher for the defending champs.

Tonight, they go on the road against a No. 11 Red Raiders team that's 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS inside United Supermarkets Arena with statement wins over No. 6 Kansas and No. 23 Texas. 

The Red Raiders defense — ranked No. 3 in defensive adjusted defensive efficiency — makes its living by limiting opposing teams' paint opportunities and forcing them to live and die by the 3-point shot.

When teams get hot from deep, they can be vulnerable, but over the course of a season, limiting high-percentage paint looks and jumpers inside the arc has proven successful for Mark Adams' defense.

Cryer, who's missed the last five games with a foot injury, is not only the team's leading scorer (13.9 ppg) but Baylor's best perimeter threat, averaging 2.8 3-point makes per game at a 46.7% clip. If he can't go, the lack of shooting will play right into the hands of the Red Raiders defense. 

And Tchamwa Tchatchoua's absence makes the Bears vulnerable in the paint defensively, giving the Red Raiders an advantage on the glass. 

Texas Tech has an opportunity to make a huge splash tonight, not only inside the Big 12 but across the nation. 

There's simply too much for the Bears to overcome, especially in one of the toughest road environments in college basketball. Take the Red Raiders at home.

Prediction: Texas Tech -1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

In the first matchup, the line closed at 135.5 and stayed Under with a final score of 65-62.

Tonight, the line is just a smidge higher at 136.5, and I'm expecting a similar result.

We're talking about teams that rank third and 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency and are both outside the Top 150 in adjusted tempo. 

The Bears, while still above average from beyond the arc, haven't been as lights-out as they were last year and may not have the perimeter firepower to take advantage of the Red Raiders' defensive gameplan, especially if Cryer is sidelined once again.

In the first matchup in Baylor's house, the Bears had eight makes from deep (just below their season average of 8.4). Cryer had two of them.

Back the game to stay just Under the total.

Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Red Raiders are the best bet here. They went to Waco and beat Baylor at full strength, limiting them to just 41.1% shooting. 

Tonight, the Bears are banged-up and in Texas Tech's building, where the Red Raiders are a perfect 15-0 on the season.

When healthy, Baylor is the better team — but it won't be tonight. Back the home team.

Pick: Texas Tech -1.5 (-110)

College basketball parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Baylor vs. Texas Tech picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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