Warriors vs Hawks Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Runs Curry Off the Arc

The Hawks don't do much well defensively but defending opposing guards' outside shooting is one of them. Against the Warriors and Steph Curry, our NBA picks are going against recent market inflation.

Last Updated: Mar 17, 2023 3:22 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
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Golden State is in a tough spot away from home on Friday.

The Warriors are hanging onto the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs by just one game. With Minnesota and Dallas just one game back, the possibility that the defending champions need to come through the play-in tournament is very real.

The Hawks’ dreams of avoiding the play-in are likely dashed at this point. They’ll need to make up 4.5 games on the Nets, and they’ll also need to leapfrog the Heat who sit in seventh place, three games ahead of them. Still, there’s much to play for.

Let’s break down how this one should go in our Warriors vs. Hawks NBA picks.

Warriors vs Hawks best odds

Warriors vs Hawks picks and predictions

The time has come to short Stephen Curry. Yes, I know it’s never fun to fade the greatest shooter of all time, but the fact of the matter is he’s played well enough over the last five games to severely inflate his player props.

I’m going to bet that the Hawks run Curry off the 3-point line and force him to score inside, if he’s even able to do that against Clint Capela. The Hawks rank fifth in the NBA with just 2.6 threes allowed per game to opposing point guards, which has me licking my lips here. 

Trae Young has really stepped up his defense, and Dejounte Murray has done a great job on that end as well.

Curry has gone Over this number 24 times in 44 games, and in the last two games, he’s hit the Over twice. 

It seems this is a toss-up on a nightly basis, and against a strong guard defense I expect this one to be tough for Curry to hit.

My best bet: Stephen Curry Under 4.5 made threes (-105)

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Warriors vs Hawks spread analysis

Draymond Green will be missing this game due to a league suspension, and Andrew Wiggins remains out for Golden State as well. On top of that, Curry is dealing with a sore thumb (even though we expect him to play, given his props are widely available). This is going to be a tough spot for the Warriors.

On top of that, Golden State has been allergic to playing well away from home. It is just 7-27 straight up on the road and 8-25 against the spread in those games.

With that said, the Hawks have been a rare bad home team. They’re just 14-19 ATS in Atlanta and an even worse 11-16 ATS as home favorites.

It’s a case of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. While neither sounds particularly appealing, the Hawks have to be the play here. Capela and John Collins should have their way inside without Green, and a defense that’s been fifth in efficiency since the break should look significantly weaker without their anchor. 

Atlanta is fourth in offensive efficiency, conversely, and I’d suspect it blows the doors off this weakened unit.

Warriors vs Hawks Over/Under analysis

The Hawks are fourth in pace since the All-Star break and the Warriors ninth. While they won’t have Green to start the fast break, we can take solace in the fact that Golden State has a 103.89 pace rating with him off the floor and a 104.27 with him on the floor.

What’s that mean? Well, you should still see the same brand of basketball you’re accustomed to seeing from the Warriors. They will push the pace, as will the Hawks.

So, that’s why this number is outrageously high. Out of principle, I want to take the Under here, but there are some pretty solid reasons to do so.

First of all, I alluded to the fact that Curry may have some issues with this Hawks defense as well as with his sore left thumb. The offense and pace are also depressed enough with Green where I see some value in shorting the offenses. I don’t think this number takes those factors into account quite enough.

Warriors vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Over has cashed in just four of Golden State’s last 12 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Hawks.

Warriors vs Hawks game info

Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Date: Friday, March 17, 2023
Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET

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