Trail Blazers vs Clippers Picks and Predictions: Blazing a Path to the Bottom

The Portland Trail Blazers have made their intentions clear. They plan to tank to the finish, and with two games left, a win could put their lottery odds into a three-way tie for fifth-best chances for Victor Wembanyama. In other words, it is hard to imagine Portland risking a win now, and the Los Angeles Clippers will be glad for the gift this afternoon. A win will secure a top-six playoff berth for the Clippers, evading the stresses of the play-in tournament during a season marked by injuries.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Trail Blazers vs. Clippers on Saturday, April 8.

Trail Blazers vs Clippers best odds

Trail Blazers vs Clippers picks and predictions

Since the Trail Blazers sat down Damian Lillard for the season on March 24, they are a respectable 4-4 against the spread. But that conceals how bad things have become, intentionally, for Portland. The four losses came by an average of 19.6 points worse than the pregame lines. The Blazers do not just lose, and they do not just lose against the spread. When they fall short of expectations these days, they also fall short of basic decency.

Bookmakers cannot catch up to Portland’s wretchedness. They only prevail when the Blazers face teams that are not trying to win. Beating the spread against the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio Spurs and the benched Memphis Grizzlies are hardly proud accomplishments for the Blazers. Beating the Minnesota Timberwolves outright as 19-point underdogs, the biggest NBA upset in 28 years, was a complete anomaly. As a Timberwolves season-ticket holder, I feel I should probably file for worker’s comp because the Covers.com assignment editor foisted a Blazers handicap upon me.

The Clippers cannot bench their stars, a la Memphis, because they need a win to secure a play-in free postseason, and facing the Phoenix Suns tomorrow will be less a sure thing. With Kawhi Leonard available, Los Angeles should avoid the embarrassment suffered by the Timberwolves.

This should be a quick and tidy dispatching by the Clippers, and thus, something that fits the theme of Portland losing against the spread by nearly 20 points per game. But let’s not get that greedy.

Inflating the pregame spread by a three-pointer adds 38 cents to a bet. That is reasonable.

If that sounds too ambitious to you, realize that Jabari Walker has a usage rate of 21.9% since March 24 while shooting 39.2%. Kevin Knox handles the ball even more with a 24.4% usage rate, while he shoots 41.8% from the field on 12.3 shots per game.

The Blazers may have proven a piece of the future with Shaedon Sharpe these last few weeks, but he is still surrounded by players that otherwise should not see an NBA court.

My best bet: Clippers -19.5 (+128 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Trail Blazers vs Clippers spread analysis

Some books have moved this line to -17.0 on Saturday morning, with BetMGM even trying out -17.5. They all seem to recognize there is no spread too high. Either the Blazers will make this a shockingly close game or get comically blown out.

The Clippers have been favored by nine or more points only four times this season. Let’s play a quick parlor game and let you try to guess who those four opponents were. This sentence is now a placeholder so you do not immediately see the answers. Got it yet? Okay, here you go: San Antonio, Houston, Charlotte, and Detroit. Those are the four-worst teams in the NBA, with Portland being next up.

Los Angeles went 3-1 ATS in those four games, the sole loss coming in the first such game, favored by 10.5 against Detroit in mid-November. In the three games since then, the Clippers have covered those spreads by an average of 16 points.

Trail Blazers vs Clippers Over/Under analysis

The opening total of 228.5 has ticked upward, reaching 229.5 at most books with a handful also offering 230. In this tanking stretch, Portland has cashed the Under in five of the eight games, including two of the four it lost ATS.

Los Angeles went 2-2 to the Over in its four games against the league’s worst.

Obviously, none of those trends create an angle here. Looking back at those shooting percentages from primary Portland contributors these days, though, may strongly argue for an Under assessment assuming they will continue to miss early and often.

Trail Blazers vs Clippers betting trend to know

The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing overall record. Find more NBA betting trends for Trail Blazers vs. Clippers.

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