Suns vs Nuggets Game 5 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Jokic Hits Roadblock in Return to Denver

The sum of Phoenix Suns' stars Kevin Durant and Devin Booker has so far been equal to that of the entire Denver Nuggets, with this Western Conference semifinal locked at 2-2 heading back up the mountain for Game 5 inside Ball Arena tonight.

Denver won the opening two games of the series at home followed by Phoenix returning serve in the desert, and that home-court edge has NBA odds dealing the Nuggets as the biggest home chalk so far in this series.

I dissect the point spread and Over/Under action for Game 5, peer into the NBA player props market, and give my best NBA picks for the Suns vs. Nuggets on May 9.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 5 best odds

Suns vs Nuggets Game 5 picks and predictions

Like jamming my hefty 6-foot-4 frame on an airplane, my best bet for Game 5 is asking you to be comfortable with being uncomfortable for a couple of hours.

The Denver Nuggets are back atop the mountain hoping to rekindle the home-court edge they held in the opening two games of this series. The core of that approach is center Nikola Jokic, who has gone for 54, 30, and 39 points in the past three games after opening the series with a 24-point performance in Game 1.

Those herculean efforts have boosted Jokic’s point prop to as high as 30.5 (Over -110) for Tuesday night — a three-point hike from his Game 4 total of 27.5 O/U, and a four-point adjustment from his other three scoring prop O/U in this series.

There will be no shortage of Over action on Jokic’s points prop based on his recent output. and the two-time MVP is fully capable of another monster night on the scoresheet. However, if we buy into the player projections for Game 5, we see the Joker nowhere near his scoring total for tonight’s tilt.

Jokic’s points projections range from 24 points to just Under 27 for Game 5, which leaves more leg room for Under bettors than what those ever-shrinking airplanes dole out in economy class. My number lands just short of 26 points for Jokic, which is around what he’s averaging at home so far this postseason.

It’s truly a “sell high” situation with Denver’s man in the middle, but the Phoenix Suns must clamp down on Jokic in some capacity if it wants to take the edge in this series. The dust up with Suns' owner Mat Ishbia on the sideline in Game 4 nearly took care of the problem, but kudos to Ishbia for lobbying the league not to suspend Jokic.

Phoenix head coach Monty Williams is throwing more beef at Jokic with Deandre Ayton and Jock Landale sharing defensive duties. Landale played only 21 minutes in Game 4 and checked Jokic for just a short period, but held the Joker to 4 of 8 shooting and a turnover. Expect Jock to get inside Nikola's jock more often tonight as Phoenix searches for answers on defense.

My best bet: Nikola Jokic Under 30.5 points (-106)

Suns vs Nuggets Game 5 same-game parlay

Nikola Jokic Under 30.5 points (-120)

Devin Booker Under 8.5 assists (-140)

Deandre Ayton Over 12.5 points (-115)

+500 at DraftKings

We’re selling high on Jokic to come back to earth after three massive games and a significant uptick in his points prop total for Game 5. I'm also going Under on Devin Booker’s assist total, which is ticked up to 8.5 after 21 total dimes the past two games. My projection sits at 6.4 assists and no mainstream models have him recording more than seven.

Buy low on Ayton’s offensive efforts. His point total is down to 12.5 O/U after scoring just 12 combined in the Suns’ two wins due to foul trouble limiting his minutes. His projection ceiling is 19 points while my number is more conservative at 17 points, which is still more than enough to get Over 12.5 for Phoenix’s starting center.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Suns vs Nuggets Game 5 spread and Over/Under analysis

The home team is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in this series, and with home chalk boasting a solid 28-16 ATS count (64%) in the NBA Playoffs overall, bookies are pumping up the points for the Game 5 spread.

Denver hit the board as short as a 4-point favorite and with Suns veteran guard Chris Paul still sidelined with a groin injury (and Nikola Jokic dodging a possible suspension), this spread has since climbed to Nuggets -5.5. According to BetMGM, 78% of the ticket count and 77% of the handle is laying the points with the host team tonight.

Denver was dominant on its own court in the opening two games of the series, scoring 10 and 18-point victories as a favorite of -4.5 and -4. The Nuggets won all three home games against Minnesota in the opening round (2-1 ATS) and boast a net rating of +13.6 inside Ball Arena so far this postseason.

But holding home court just isn’t enough. Denver has to find a way to slow down the combo of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, who combined for 158 points in the two games in Phoenix, or 63% of the Suns’ total offensive output in those contests.

You could make the case that Phoenix is playing better basketball without Paul in the lineup, with the Suns upping the tempo from a pace rating of 95.25 to 98.25 the past two games along with an effective field goal rate of 59.7% in those home outings. Cameron Payne has taken over at point guard for the injured Paul, stepping in as a steady hand and making shots when needed.

The Nuggets weren’t getting the same results from their complementary pieces. Denver’s top guns Jokic and Jamal Murray anchor the attack, but guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. can’t be counted on for consistent contributions — at least they weren’t on the road.

The Game 5 O/U opened at 228 points and has stayed somewhat still, with some books dipping to 227.5 points as of Tuesday morning. BetMGM books are reporting even play on the total, with 55% of bets on the Over and 52% of the money leaning to a higher-scoring finish Tuesday night.

The Nuggets and Suns have produced a 3-1 O/U mark through four games, with the two tilts in the Footprint Center topping the total with ease after the teams combined for collective outputs of 253 and 235 points — blowing away the closing numbers of 226 and 225 O/U.

Expect some natural regression from the offenses tonight after Phoenix and Denver shot 57% and 56% from the floor respectively in Game 4. The Suns have been especially hot, connecting at a 53.4% rate over those two home stands with a 22-for-57 tally from beyond the arc.

So far this postseason, Phoenix is shooting 46.7% on the road but has struggled to make from beyond the arc in opposing gyms, watching the 3-point success slide from 40.5% at home to just 31.1% as a visitor — a difference of more than two triples made per game.

Suns vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Under is 7-3 in Nuggets’ last 10 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Nuggets.

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