The suddenly mortal Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t looked like a juggernaut lately, and they’ll be shorthanded again tonight as they host the upstart Toronto Raptors.
After a 24-1 start, OKC is just 13-8 in its last 21 games. My Raptors vs. Thunder predictions expect the hosts to lean heavily on Chet Holmgren here in what should be a tighter battle than the line suggests.
Take a closer look at my NBA picks for this January 25 clash.
Raptors vs Thunder prediction
Raptors vs Thunder best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 points + rebounds (-112)
Last year, the Oklahoma City Thunder held the fort without Chet Holmgren, who only logged 32 games in an injury-hit regular season. This year, they’d be lost without him – and his role should only expand with OKC’s growing injury list.
The hosts will be without Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell tonight against the Toronto Raptors. That’s a lot of firepower in street clothes, and Holmgren is the likeliest candidate to step up to relieve the burden on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Chet delivered a 25-point, 13-rebound effort on Friday against the Pacers, and this is the time for a serious uptick in his 11.5 FGA per game. We’ve seen that in two of his past three outings, and I’m banking on 15+ shots here.
January has been a strong month on the boards for Holmgren. He’s averaging 10 RPG, and that spells trouble for a Toronto team that’s missing Jakob Poeltl and possibly rookie Collin Murray-Boyles, too. Look for the visitors to lean into small-ball lineups, giving Chet a major edge on the glass.
While this O/U line is a little higher than Holmgren’s season averages, he’s walking into the type of volume that an All-Star candidate should thrive on.
Raptors vs Thunder same-game parlay
The Raptors have put together a 3-1 West Coast road trip so far, and they’ve posted a solid 15-9 mark on their travels this year. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, so I’m taking the points here with a double-digit spread, especially given OKC’s injury list.
Even so, it’s hard to see Toronto staying close without a top-tier effort from Scottie Barnes, so I’m adding his points prop Over for this SGP. He’s averaging 22.8 PPG across his past eight contests, despite some miserable 3-point shooting, and he went past this number in his last visit to OKC.
Raptors vs Thunder SGP
- Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 points + rebounds
- Raptors +11
- Scottie Barnes Over 18.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Cason keeps rolling along
Cason Wallace is going to see extra opportunities tonight, with the Thunder’s backcourt injuries, and he drilled three 3-pointers against the Pacers on Friday. He’s 11-for-22 from downtown across his last six games, and he’ll get open looks when SGA draws a crowd.
Raptors vs Thunder SGP
- Chet Holmgren Over 28.5 points + rebounds
- Raptors +11
- Scottie Barnes Over 18.5 points
- Cason Wallace Over 1.5 3-pointers
Raptors vs Thunder odds
- Spread: Raptors +11 | Thunder -11
- Moneyline: Raptors +390 | Thunder -510
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Raptors vs Thunder betting trend to know
The Raptors are 6-3 ATS in their last nine contests. Find more NBA betting trends for Raptors vs. Thunder.
How to watch Raptors vs Thunder
| Location | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK |
| Date | Sunday, January 25, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN, FDSN Oklahoma |
Raptors vs Thunder latest injuries
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