Two high-stakes Game 5 scenarios take place in the Association tonight.
The New York Knicks try to take down the Tatum-less Boston Celtics in Beantown while the Minnesota Timberwolves are at home with the Golden State Warriors on the ropes.
I've looked through the NBA player props to provide my three favorite NBA picks for May 14.
Best NBA player props today
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Bridges o14.5 points (-110) -
Porzingis 15+ pts/5+ rebs (+125) -
Butler o1.5 threes (+180)
NBA player props for May 14
Mikal Bridges Over 14.5 points (-110 at bet365)
I usually stay away from Mikal Bridges’ points props whenever the Knicks' small forward is playing on the road.
Bridges has some of the most contrasting home/away splits in the league, averaging 19.6 points in the Big Apple and watching that output drop four points (15.5) on the road.
His shooting success plummets in enemy territory, and you’ll be hard pressed to find a more hostile venue than the TD Garden tonight.
That said, Bridges has bucked this home/away trend at times in the postseason, and his Game 5 projections are just too strong to ignore. Game 5 forecasts sit at 16 points or higher for Bridges, with my number sitting just north of 17 points. That’s more than enough to get Over his scoring total of 14.5 points.
Bridges is coming off a 23-point performance — in MSG — and really took over in the fourth quarter with his mid-range shooting. With Tatum out of action, Boston struggled with defensive matchups, and Bridges found plenty of space around the key.
Given my projection, the Over 14.5 points from Bridges should be lugging juice as high as -170. We’re getting great value at -110, but I know this one won’t be as cut and dry as it seems. Buckle up for Bridges tonight.
Kristaps Porzingis 15+ points/5+ rebounds (+125 at bet365)
With Tatum out, the rest of the Celtics need to find another gear in Game 5. That includes Kristaps Porzingis, who can be sick some other time.
Boston’s “unicorn” has been limited due to an illness in this series, playing 24 minutes or less in all four games after registering more than 27 minutes per contest in Round 1.
His floor time has climbed the past two contests, and he told the media that Game 4 (in which he logged 24 minutes) was the healthiest he’s felt in a long time, with this strange illness plaguing him for months:
My energy was good and I felt like I could go a bit more up and down, so that was a positive. We’re going to go out there and leave it all out there and live with the results.
Without Tatum, Porzingis could slide into the starting lineup or will at least play a much larger role in the offense, absorbing some of Tatum’s touches that are being spread across the team.
Player projections for Game 5 range from 15 points to 19.9 for Porzingis, with my number coming out just shy of 17 points. He’s shown the ability to step up without Tatum on the floor, averaging more than 21 points in the 10 games he’s played without him over the past two seasons.
Porzingis should also be a force on the glass for Boston. He’s recorded four rebounds in each game of this series, despite the limited minutes, and has proven especially pesky on the offensive boards, hauling in 10 total offensive rebounds. His rebounding models for Game 5 bounce between 6.1 and 7.1.
I’m grabbing Porzingis’ milestone markets of 15+ points and 5+ rebounds and combining those in a same game parlay that pays +125 at bet365 tonight.
Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 threes (+180 at bet365)
Jimmy Butler was not only battling a heated rival but apparently an illness in Game 4 of the Western Conference semifinal set. He played only 34 minutes and finished with 14 points on 5-for-9 shooting, including whiffing on his only 3-point attempt. Steve Kerr spoke on it yesterday:
Jimmy was under the weather last night. He really was not feeling well, and that definitely impacted him… Everyone knows who Jimmy is. He's one of the great playoff performers and I expect him to have a big game tomorrow.
Golden State needs Butler to rise to the occasion in Minnesota, and with T-Wolves pegged as double-digit favorites, the game script says the Dubs will be battling back from behind. That has me sizing up Butler’s activity from outside as he attempts to score big buckets in those comeback attempts.
Butler had made at least two triples in the first three games of the series before a 0-for-1 outing in Game 4. With Curry still sidelined, the Warriors are missing their biggest threat from deep, and those 3-point looks are up for grabs.
Player projections are far from bullish when it comes to Butler’s makes from long range (1.2 3PM), but I believe given the desperate scenario and game script laid out tonight, Butler will be more aggressive from outside and the price is right for someone who’s hit two 3-pointers in four of his last five games overall.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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