The NBA regular season concludes on Sunday night with a Nuggets vs. Spurs matchup that offers more betting value in the player prop market than the spread or total.
Our NBA player prop projections break down the expected production on both sides, highlighting where the numbers create betting value.
Alongside our Nuggets vs. Spurs predictions and top NBA picks, here are the best player props to target for April 12.
Nuggets vs Spurs computer picks for April 12
 Nuggets |
 Spurs |
|---|---|
| Jokic o0.5 threes -150 |
Fox u6.5 assists -105 |
| Jones u5.5 assists -112 |
Champagnie u12.5 points -110 |
| Strawther u2.5 threes -135 |
Fox o1.5 threes -110 |
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Nuggets computer picks
Nikola Jokic Over 0.5 threes (-150)
Projection: 1.5 threes
Nikola Jokic clearing one three is about as low a bar as it gets, especially in a game Denver actually cares about. With the Nuggets still pushing for seeding, expect full minutes and a normal offensive role.
San Antonio’s defense gives up clean looks to bigs on the perimeter, and Jokic has been more willing to fire.
He's hit at least one 3-pointer in two of his last three games.
Tyus Jones Under 5.5 assists (-112)
Projection: 4.1 assists
Tyus Jones’ role is the issue here, not his talent. With Denver playing for seeding, the ball is going to live in Nikola Jokic’s hands, not Jones’.
He’s more of a secondary initiator in this offense, and his assist upside is capped unless minutes spike. In a tighter rotation game, that’s unlikely.
Jones has gone Under this total in 14 straight games.
Julian Strawther Under 2.5 threes (-135)
Projection: 2.0 threes
Julian Strawther’s role is always fragile, and that’s amplified in a high-leverage game for Denver. The Nuggets will tighten the rotation, leaning more on trusted options, which limits Strawther’s volume and minutes.
Even if he gets on the floor, he’s a streaky shooter who needs attempts to get there.
He's gone Under this number in 16 of his last 17 games.
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Spurs computer picks
De'Aaron Fox Under 6.5 assists (-120)
Projection: 5.6 assists
De'Aaron Fox’s role is score-first, and that becomes even more pronounced in a meaningless end-of-season spot.
With the Spurs not playing for anything, offensive structure tends to break down, leading to fewer clean assist opportunities. He’s more likely to hunt his own shot than facilitate, and the projection reflects that.
At 5.6 assists, this line is simply a bit too aggressive for his expected usage and game environment.
Julian Champagnie Under 12.5 points (-110)
Projection: 10.9 points
Julian Champagnie is a decent role player, but 12.5 is a touch too high for someone whose production can disappear fast if the shot volume is not there.
With a projection of 10.9, there is enough cushion to back the Under, especially if his minutes or usage dip even slightly.
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De'Aaron Fox Over 1.5 threes (-110)
Projection: 1.7 threes
De’Aaron Fox isn’t known as a high-volume 3-point shooter, but he’s quietly cleared this number with more consistency when his usage spikes.
With a 1.7 projection, you’re not getting a massive edge, but you don’t need one at this line.
How to watch Nuggets vs Spurs tonight
| Location | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
| Date | Sunday, April 12, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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